Weekly Outlook: 2014, May 11 - 18

EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 12, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally to the 1.40 level, but as you can see turned everything back around and form a nasty looking resistive candle. The shape of the candle is somewhat like a shooting star, and as result it looks as if the market is ready to continue falling from here. The 1.37 level will be supportive, but we believe that the closing of the week at such lows in the range means that we will see continued bearish pressure, and as a result we aren’t looking to buy at all now.

Forex - Weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

The euro fell to one-month lows against the dollar on Friday, extending steep losses from the previous session after the European Central Bank indicated that it could ease monetary policy as soon as next month.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3756, the weakest level since April 8, down 0.60% on the day. For the week, the pair was off 0.85%.

The euro fell from two-and-a-half year highs against the dollar on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi said the banks is “comfortable” with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June. The comments came after the ECB left rates on hold, as expected.

Draghi also said the strength of the euro was “a serious concern” and added that the bank would be closely monitoring exchange rate developments.

The single currency came under additional pressure after data on Friday showed that German exports fell 1.8% from a month earlier in March and the country posted a smaller-than-forecast trade surplus.

The euro dropped to two-month lows against the yen, with EUR/JPY at 140.09 late Friday, the weakest since March 4. The pair ended the week down 1.15%.

Elsewhere Friday, the dollar gained ground against the yen and the Swiss franc on Friday. USD/JPY was at 101.85 late Friday, holding above the three-week trough of 101.42 reached on Tuesday. For the week, the pair was down 0.27%.

USD/CHF settled at a one-month high of 0.8862, 0.62% higher for the day and extending the week’s gains to 0.95%.

Sterling was also lower against the dollar, with GBP/USD down 0.48% to 1.6849 at the close. Earlier in the week, the pair touched highs of 1.6994, the most since August 2009 on the back of expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The Canadian dollar fell back from a four-month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, following an unexpectedly weak domestic jobs report. Statistics Canada reported that the economy shed 28,900 jobs in April, confounding expectations for jobs growth of 12,000.

USD/CAD rose 0.62% to 1.0897 at the close, after falling as low as 1.0813 in the previous session.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to the BoE’s quarterly inflation report for further indications of the expected course of monetary policy. The euro zone and Japan are to release preliminary data on first quarter economic growth, while the U.S. is to publish reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• Japan is to release data on its current account. Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence.
• In Europe, Switzerland is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• Australia is to produce data on house price inflation and home loans, while the government is to release its annual budget report.
• China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.
• The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.
• The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to publish its bi-annual financial stability report. Governor Graeme Wheeler is to hold a press conference to discuss the report. Meanwhile New Zealand is to release data on retail sales.
• The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate and average earnings. The BoE is to publish its quarterly inflation report, and Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.
• The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.
• The euro zone is to produce data on industrial production.
• Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• Japan is to publish preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The nation is also to release a report on tertiary industry activity.
• Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.
• New Zealand is to release its annual budget statement, as well as private sector data on manufacturing activity.
• The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as revised data on consumer inflation.
• Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation.
• Canada is to release a report on manufacturing sales.
• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• Canada is to publish data on foreign securities purchases.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

USD/JPY weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

The dollar pushed higher against the yen on Friday, but was still close to a three-week low struck earlier in the week, as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine continued to underpin safe haven demand.

USD/JPY was at 101.85 late Friday, holding above the three-week trough of 101.42 reached on Tuesday. For the week, the pair was down 0.27%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.42 and resistance at 102.25, the high of May 5.

Investors remained cautious ahead of a weekend referendum by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's two eastern regions, which has been condemned by Ukraine’s government and the West.

The dollar fell to the weakest level since mid-April against the yen earlier in the week following dovish comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who said a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the U.S. economy.

The comments came during testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Elsewhere Friday, the yen rose to two-month highs against the broadly weaker euro, with EUR/JPY at 140.09 late Friday, the weakest since March 4. The pair ended the week down 1.15%.

The drop in the euro came after ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday the bank is “comfortable” with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June.

The ECB left rates on hold on Thursday, as expected.

Draghi also said the strength of the euro was “a serious concern” and added that the bank would be closely monitoring exchange rate developments.

The single currency came under additional pressure after data on Friday showed that German exports fell 1.8% from a month earlier in March and the country posted a smaller-than-forecast trade surplus.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to preliminary data on first quarter economic growth from Japan, while the U.S. is to publish reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• Japan is to release data on its current account.
• Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• Japan is to publish preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The nation is also to release a report on tertiary industry activity.
• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

USD/CHF weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

The dollar rose to a one-month high against the Swiss franc on Friday, recovering from lows hit earlier in the week in the wake of dovish comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

USD/CHF ended Friday’s session at 0.8862, 0.62% higher for the day and extending the week’s gains to 0.95%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8740 and resistance at 0.8925.

The dollar gained ground as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine eased but investors remained cautious ahead of a weekend referendum by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's two eastern regions, which has been condemned by Ukraine’s government and the West.

The dollar fell to the weakest level since early April against the Swissy earlier in the week after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the U.S. economy.

The comments came during testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank said Wednesday that its foreign currency reserves rose in April.

The Swiss central bank said it held 438.949 billion Swiss francs in foreign currency at the end of April, up from 437.935 billion in March, indicating that it has not been actively buying euros to defend its 1.20 Swiss francs per euro minimum exchange rate floor.

The SNB imposed the exchange rate floor in September 2011 to help stave off the risk of deflation and recession, as safe haven inflows prompted by the crisis in the euro zone pushed the Swiss franc close to parity with the euro.

The Swissy was little changed against the euro on Friday, with EUR/CHF settling at 1.2193.

The euro ended the week sharply lower against some of the other major currencies after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday the bank is “comfortable” with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June.

The ECB left rates on hold on Thursday, as expected.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to the U.S. reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• Switzerland is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.
• Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar on Friday, rebounding from four-month lows after data showed that the Canadian economy unexpectedly shed jobs in April.

USD/CAD was at 1.0897 late Friday, up 0.62% for the day, after falling as low as 1.0813 in the previous session. For the week, the pair was still down 0.55%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0813 and resistance at 1.0960.

The Canadian dollar weakened after Statistics Canada reported that the economy shed 28,900 jobs in April, confounding expectations for jobs growth of 12,000.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.9%, in line with expectations but the labor force participation rate, which measures those still actively looking for work, ticked down to 66.1% in April from 66.2% the previous month.

The decline in employment was the largest since December 2013.

The weak data added to concerns over the prospect of weaker-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter and underline expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold for longer.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the other major currencies earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a dovish tone on the economy during testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Wednesday.

Ms. Yellen said that a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the economy.

The Fed chief also said the bank expects economic growth to accelerate this year despite the slowdown in the first quarter but warned that the recent housing market slowdown "could prove more protracted than currently expected."

In the week ahead, the data calendar for Canada is light so investors will be looking ahead to U.S. reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• The U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• Canada is to release a report on manufacturing sales.
• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• Canada is to publish data on foreign securities purchases.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

The Australian dollar eased off a three-week high struck in the previous session against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after the Reserve Bank of Australia reiterated that interest rates will remain at record lows for the foreseeable future.

AUD/USD hit 0.9393 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since April 15, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9363 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.12% for the day but 0.91% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9269, the low from May 6 and resistance at 0.9393, the high from May 8.

In its statement of monetary policy published Friday, the RBA changed its growth and inflation forecasts despite a higher exchange rate, and said monetary policy will remain accommodative for an extended period.

The inflation outlook suggests there is still space capacity in the economy and "given that assessment, the board's view is that the current accommodative monetary policy setting is likely to be appropriate for some time yet," the RBA said.

The central bank upgraded the outlook for the near term, forecasting annualized growth of 3.0% in June, compared with 2.75% in the February statement.

But in the case of inflation, the RBA lowered its near-term projection to a 2.75% gain year-on-year for underlying inflation from 3.00% in the February statement.

The Aussie rallied to a three-week high on Thursday after official data showed that the number of employed people in Australia rose by 14,200 in April, beating expectations for a 6,800 increase. March's figure was revised up to a 22,000 rise from a previously estimated 18,100 gain.

The report also showed that Australia's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% last month, compared to expectations for an uptick to 5.9%.

On Tuesday, the RBA held the cash rate at a record low 2.5% as widely expected in its latest board review.

Meanwhile, the greenback remained under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday that a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the economy.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators decreased their bullish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending May 6.

Net longs totaled 8,637 contracts, compared to net longs of 10,706 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment for further indications on the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence.
• Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• Australia is to produce data on house price inflation and home loans, while the government is to release its annual budget report.
• China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment. The Asian nation is Australia’s largest trade partner.
• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

NZD/USD weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

The New Zealand dollar fell to a one-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, following comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Deputy Governor Grant Spencer.

NZD/USD hit 0.8603 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since May 2, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8612 by close of trade, down 0.4% for the day and 0.6% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8591, the low from May 2 and resistance at 0.8670, the high from May 8.

RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer said Friday that the high exchange rate is a cause for concern. He added that housing market prices and the exchange rate are important variables for the pace and timing of interest rate hikes.

"A big uncertainty is the future path of the exchange rate, which has a major bearing on traded goods prices and overall economic activity," he said. "The more downward pressure that the exchange rate exerts on prices and activity, the less pressure will need to be exerted by interest rates."

The RBNZ has raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points twice since March to 3.00% now.

On Wednesday, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler warned against the Kiwi's current strength, saying that "it would become more opportune for the Reserve Bank to intervene in the currency market to sell New Zealand dollars", in the face of worsening fundamentals.

In addition, official data showed that the number of employed people in New Zealand rose by 0.9% in the first quarter, beating expectations for a 0.6% increase, after a 1.1% gain in the three months to December.

The report also showed that New Zealand's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.0% in the last quarter, disappointing expectations for a downtick to 5.9%.

Meanwhile, the greenback remained under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday that a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the economy.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending May 6.

Net longs totaled 20,693 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 18,480 contracts in the previous week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment for further indications on the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• The U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment. The Asian nation is New Zealand’s second largest trade partner.
• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The RBNZ is to publish its bi-annual financial stability report. Governor Graeme Wheeler is to hold a press conference to discuss the report. Meanwhile New Zealand is to release data on retail sales.
• Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• New Zealand is to release its annual budget statement, as well as private sector data on manufacturing activity.
• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

GBP/USD weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

Sterling moved lower against the dollar on Friday, pulling back from the almost five year highs struck earlier in the week, but demand for the pound continued to be underpinned by expectations for a U.K. rate hike early next year.

GBP/USD was down 0.48% to 1.6849 late Friday. Earlier in the week, the pair touched highs of 1.6994, the most since August 2009. For the week, the pair slipped 0.11%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6700 and resistance at 1.6900.

The pound’s losses came despite data on Friday showing that British factory output grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly four years during the first three months of the year.

Output grew 1.4%, up from 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2013.

A separate report showed that the U.K. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in March.

Sterling’s losses were checked as a recent string of upbeat reports about the U.K. economy has bolstered expectations the BoE could raise borrowing costs ahead of other central banks.

The dollar firmed up on Friday after slumping earlier in the week following dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen during testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Speaking Wednesday, Ms. Yellen said that a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the economy.

The Fed chief also said the bank expects economic growth to accelerate this year despite the slowdown in the first quarter but warned that the recent housing market slowdown "could prove more protracted than currently expected."

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to the BoE’s quarterly inflation report for further indications of the expected course of monetary policy, as well as the latest U.K. employment report.

The U.S. is to publish reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• The U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.
• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate and average earnings. The BoE is to publish its quarterly inflation report, and
• Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.
• Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

EUR/USD weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

The euro extended losses against the dollar into a second session on Friday, falling to a one-month low at the close, one day after the European Central Bank flagged possible monetary easing as soon as next month.

EUR/USD was at 1.3756 late Friday, the weakest level since April 8, down 0.60% on the day. For the week, the pair was off 0.85%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3695 and resistance at 1.3843, Friday’s high.

The euro fell from two-and-a-half year highs against the dollar on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank is “comfortable” with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June.

The comments came after the ECB left rates on hold, as expected.

Draghi also said the strength of the euro was “a serious concern” and added that the bank would be closely monitoring exchange rate developments.

The single currency came under additional pressure after data on Friday showed that German exports fell 1.8% from a month earlier in March and the country posted a smaller-than-forecast trade surplus.

The euro dropped to two-month lows against the yen, with EUR/JPY at 140.09 late Friday, the weakest since March 4. The pair ended the week down 1.15%.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the other major currencies earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a dovish tone on the economy during testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Speaking Wednesday, Ms. Yellen said that a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the economy.

The Fed chief also said the bank expects economic growth to accelerate this year despite the slowdown in the first quarter but warned that the recent housing market slowdown "could prove more protracted than currently expected."

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to preliminary data on first quarter growth in the euro zone, while the U.S. is to publish reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

• The U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

• The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
• The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

• The euro zone is to produce data on industrial production.
• Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

• The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The bloc is also to produce revised data on consumer inflation.
• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

• The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

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