EUR Technical Analysis

• Weekly price broke Ichimoku cloud for the bearish reversal to be bounced from 1.4465 support level;
• The price is started to be ranging within 1.4465 support and 1.5837 bullish resistance level near Ichimoku cloud;
• AbsoluteStrength indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing with the secondary ranging.

Trend:

• D1 - ranging bearish
• W1 - bearish breakdown
• MN1 - correction

EUR/GBP: breakout with bullish reversal. Weekly price is breaking 200 period SMA for the reversal from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition.

• if the price breaks 0.7946 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing;
• if the price breaks 0.7525 support level so the price will be reversed back to the bearish market condition;
• if not so the price will be moved within the channel.

Resistance	Support
0.7946	0.7525
N/A	0.6982

EUR/JPY: bearish breakdown. Daily price is on bearish market condition located to be below Ichimoku cloud: the price broke some key resistance level for the good breakdown which was stopped by 122.53 and 122.02 support levels. Chinkou Span line broke the price to below for the breakdown to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish trend in the near future.

There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/JPY price movement for the week:

• 2016-04-10 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Core Machinery Orders]
• 2016-04-11 13:25 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]
• 2016-04-12 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German CPI]
• 2016-04-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Budget Balance]
• 2016-04-12 23:50 GMT | [JPY - PPI]
• 2016-04-13 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]
• 2016-04-13 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
• 2016-04-14 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Core CPI]
• 2016-04-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]
• 2016-04-15 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]
• 2016-04-15 09:00 GMT | [EUR - Trade Balance]
• 2016-04-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index]
• 2016-04-15 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

Resistance	Support
128.21	122.53
130.89	122.02

Chronologically speaking, the trend-line from the lower-highs set just after the BoJ made the move to negative rates has likely come back into play, at the very least, to offer near-term resistance in EUR/JPY. And given the fact that a new low was made earlier today, this would indicate that the down-trend in the pair may not yet be over.

The combination of these factors could amount to a short position later in the week, but given the veracity of this morning’s bounce, traders would likely want to treat pending short positions with caution. The short setup could become attractive later in the week should resistance show at a deeper level, even if this projected trend-line becomes violated. Levels of interest for potential resistance are at 123.50 (prior swing high, and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior major move), and then 124.40 (the 38.2% retracement of that same move).


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The Euro declined against the British Pound as expected after prices produced a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below the 0.82 figure. Prices have now broken trend line support set from early February, hinting the dominant long-term down trend may be resuming.

From here, a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7849 on a daily closing basis opens the door for a challenge of the 0.7683-0.7703 area (horizontal pivot, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a reversal above the intersection of trend line support-turned-resistance and the 14.6% Fib at 0.7951 clears the way for a retest of the April 7 high at 0.8117.


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The Euro accelerated lower against the British Pound, putting in the largest daily loss in six months and exposing the 0.77 figure. Prices established a top with the formation of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern as expected, with subsequent losses hinting the long-term down trend may be resuming.

Near-term support is in the 0.7683-0.7703 area, marked by a horizontal pivot and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this barrier on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 0.7549. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7849 paves the way for a test of the 14.6% retracement at 0.7951.


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D1 price is located below 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA for the primary bearish market condition. The price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• Fibo support level at 1.4189 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart, and
• Fibo resistance level at 1.5026 located above 200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish market condition in the near future.

If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.4189 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4043 as the nearest bearish target.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.5026 from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.5026 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 1.4189 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: bearish

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

D1 price is below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the primary bearish market condition within the following key erversal s/r levels:

• Fibo resistance level at 1.5204 located near 200-day SMA in the beginning of the bullish area of the chart, and
• Fibo support level at 1.4433 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future.

If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.4433 together so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4345 level as the nearest target to re-enter.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.5204 from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.5204	1.4433
1.5673	1.4345

• Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.5204
  for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 1.4433
  support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

Nothing really happened; no new policies were unleashed and no new announcements were made, but that was somewhat of the issue. Markets were looking for some kind of extension or increase to Japanese QE and after the incredibly salient report had made the rounds a week earlier, it looked like something new would be announced.

But when no additional information was unveiled by the Bank of Japan at that April rate meeting, that bullish structure in EUR/JPY was smashed by a surging Yen.

Price action made some very interesting moves around this theme, and these levels can certainly become usable again. The low on Friday and again on Monday of this week was but a few pips below the previous swing low at 121.70. Sellers tried to take the pair lower yesterday but, again, support came into play to offset the selling pressure, and now EUR/JPY is catching resistance off of another familiar level at 123.08, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the ‘secondary’ move in EUR/JPY, which takes the 2008 high to the 2012 low).

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The current price action formation on the daily chart of EUR/JPY is a descending wedge, and this can be found by connecting the swing high on March 31st with the swing high to April 27th to define resistance; while that confluent support zone between 121.50-122.50 continues to stem the declines. This support has held for the better part of three-and-a-half months; and at this point traders would likely want to see a concerted break before looking for down-trend continuation setups.

To look for the next directional move, traders can use recent price action to devise strategy. The recent swing-high reflected off of the 38.2% retracement of the most recent major move at 124.04; and should price action break above this level traders can then begin assigning top-side approaches to EUR/JPY. While support at 121.50 (121.47 to be exact to the pip) has been the bottom-side of this recent support zone; and traders will likely want to see this begin to give way before assigning down-trending biases to the pair.


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