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Date: 19th February 2024.

Market Recap – China Back, US closed!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Chinese stocks climbed slightly as China returned from the long New Year holidays. Modest gains showed that investors are worried about the longterm outlook. Much of the economy’s sluggishness is a function of the collapse in the property sector as well as the bearish effects of the many regulatory restrictions in tech, problems that would not be helped much by easier policy.
* US markets are closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday.
* This week: Eyes on European inflation data, PMI data from EU, UK and US, RBA & FOMC Minutes, as well as earnings from Nvidia Corp. and BHP Group Ltd to help gauge the health of the global economy.

Market Trends:

* Nikkei (JPN225) holds near 1989 highs, pressured by Friday’s selloff but also due to decline in chip-related shares. Nintendo was the biggest percentage decliner though, slumping 5.8%. Chip-sector heavyweights Advantest and Tokyo Electron were the Nikkei’s biggest drags, shaving off 60 and 55 index points respectively with declines of 3.2% and 1.6%.
* European stock futures are in the red, US futures fractionally higher on what is likely to be a quiet day, as US markets are closed.
* S&P500(USA500) rose 0.1%, Nasdaq (USA100) rose 0.2%.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex’s gains faded after the hot inflation stats crushed expectations for quick and deep Fed rate cuts. Currently at 104.
* The Yen is directionless, with USDJPY sideways close to 150 with volumes likely to be low through the day. The drag from higher US bond yields, particularly on tech stocks, is offsetting support from a weak yen.
* USOIL pulled back from $78 highs on the ongoing Middle East tension. The IEA signaled last week that oil markets could be oversupplied all year, and China’s soft economy has raised questions about consumption. Still, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war are keeping prices from falling too far.
* Gold extends Friday’s gains, above $2020.
* Bitcoin at $52514.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th February 2024.

Market Recap – US & European equities declined, mirroring the drop in Asian stocks.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Futures for both US and European equities declined, mirroring the drop in Asian stocks, as an adjustment to China’s mortgage reference rate did little to alleviate worries surrounding the world’s 2nd largest economy.
* China implemented a record rate cut, reducing the 5-year loan prime rate by 25 basis points to 3.95%, surpassing economists’ expectations of 5 to 15 bp cuts.
* The RBA maintained its cautious stance, further suggesting that rate cuts were not imminent. Minutes from the central bank’s February meeting, released today, indicated that policymakers require additional time to ascertain if inflation is indeed decreasing before considering any potential interest rate hikes.
* Market sentiment outside China weakened as expectations for US rate cuts dwindled following higher-than-expected producer and consumer prices.
* Today: The Canadian inflation and European wages data, which are expected to influence market movements going forward.

Market Trends:

* Nikkei (JPN225) retreated by 0.3% from its recent highs.
* US Treasury yields edged up slightly, with S&P500 (USA500) futures and European futures both declining by 0.3%.
* BHP Group, the world’s largest miner, reported $6.57 billion in underlying profits, less than consensus estimates, and stated demand from top customer China was healthy despite weakness in housing.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex strengthened broadly surpassing 150 Yen, amid expectations of sustained higher US interest rates, despite Japan’s recession and uncertainty over its monetary policy exit.
* The Aussie, often viewed as a proxy for China’s economic health, remained largely unchanged, while iron ore futures, linked to Chinese construction demand, declined by 3%.
* The Yuan initially dropped to its lowest level in 3 months but stabilized at 7.1981 in the Asia close.
* Gold was little changed after edging higher Monday to trade around $2,020 per ounce.
* The USOIL edged higher against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, a vital trade route. It is retesting again the January’s high again.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd February 2024.

In-Depth Analysis – AUDUSD – Investors Expect Fed to Cut First!



AUDUSD – Economists Do Not Expect the RBA to Cut Until 2024’s Third Quarter.

* The Aussie Dollar increases 0.67% and sees its strongest gain this week so far. The exchange rate trades at its highest price since February 2nd.
* The FOMC’s Meeting Minutes indicate the Federal Reserve is not yet willing to cut interest rates. FOMC Members are cautious about cutting rates too fast.
* Australia’s Wage Price Index for the latest quarter continues to read higher than where the RBA would like to see it.
* The Reserve Bank of Australia advise the regulator would not consider cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024.
* The Australian Economy weakens but not enough to pressure the RBA! Inflation remains moderately higher than the US!

AUDUSD – Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD is witnessing one of the lowest spreads amongst the major currency pairs and is seeing higher levels of volatility. The Australian Dollar has been rising against the USD for seven consecutive days, similar to the NZD and the Euro. However, the AUD is performing better than the GBP, JPY and CHF against the Dollar. However, investors should note that the bullish price movement is largely being driven by the weakness in the Dollar.

The US Dollar Index has fallen 0.50% this week and trades at a 3-week low. The Australian Dollar on the other hand is witnessing mainly bullish price movements depending on the currency pair. The Australian Dollar is increasing against the GBP, Euro, Yen, and the CHF but is declining against the NZD. So here we can see there are no major conflicts between the two individual currencies. However, investors will need to continue monitoring the US Dollar Index and price condition of the AUD against other major currencies.

The AUDUSD is trading above the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average and above the “Neutral” level on the RSI as well as the Bollinger Bands. These three factors indicate a further bullish trend as the asset is yet to be read “overbought” on most oscillators. In addition to this, the asset has managed to break above the resistance level and the previous high, meaning the continuation of the traditional wave pattern.

The only negative indication when evaluating technical analysis is the measurements of the previous 4 impulse waves. The average bullish wave size is 0.87% and the largest has been 0.92%. The current impulse wave reads 0.87%. Therefore, if the pattern is to continue the price may retrace soon, even if it is going to continue rising thereafter. However, this cannot be known for sure.



AUDUSD – Fundamental Analysis

In the Meeting Minutes, representatives stated more fear about the remaining risks of a premature decline in rates than about a persistent period of high interest rates. Against this background, markets are reconsidering the timing of a possible easing of the regulator’s position in May and June. According to the CME Groups FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a May adjustment is currently anticipated at 30-35%. A strong possibility is considered anything above 70%.

Next week’s Core PCE Price Index will be key for the Dollar as this will be the last inflation reading for the month and short-term future. If the PCE Price Index is also higher, this means all 5 inflation readings beat expectations. As a result, the Dollar may rise. However, the Dollar’s issue is that the market’s risk profile is high, and many expect the Fed to cut first. Therefore, the Dollar may continue to struggle unless other central banks become more dovish.

Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate is lower than the Fed’s, analysts expect the Fed to cut first. Even though GDP Growth in Australia is weakening, the economy is still performing better than Europe and the UK. In addition to this, inflation is still above 4.00%, which is extremely high for the Aussie and the Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.1% which is still manageable according to analysts there. Therefore, most analysts believe the RBA will cut in the third quarter and after the Fed. Therefore, fundamental analysis is slightly in the Aussie’s favor here, but technical analysis will need to continue signalling a rise.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd February 2024.

Market Recap – Global Rally Pushing Valuations To Record Highs Across the US, Europe & Japan.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* It was all about Nvidia. Nvidia got a $277 billion 1-day boost to its market capitalization yesterday – the biggest single-session increase in value ever!(the previous record was a $197 billion gain by Meta Platforms Inc.)
* Treasuries continued to lose ground, hurt by the surge in risk appetite with yields cheapening to the highest levels since late last year.
* The solid jobless claims report, which followed on the heels of the hawkish bent in the FOMC minutes, added to expectations the FOMC will leave rates in restrictive territory into June at least.
* A weaker than expected S&P Global services headline saw rates dip briefly.
* Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday.
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller: ”interest rate cuts should be delayed at least two more months, but indications of healthy demand and concerns over supplies could boost prices in the coming days.”
* Today: Germany IFO business climate & GDP, ECB publishes 1- and 3-Year inflation expectations survey.

Market Trends:

* Massive global rally in risk that saw the NASDAQ(USA100) jump 2.96% to 16,041.6, falling just short of the historic peak of 16,057 from November 2021. The S&P500 (USA500) climbed 2.1% to 5100, and the Dow (USA30) was up 1.18% to 39,069, both marking new records.
* Asian stock markets today continued to move higher, with the global rally pushing valuations to record highs across the US, Europe and Japan. The Nikkei jumped a further 2.2%.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex was little changed at 103.80, below 104 for the first time since February 2.
* The Yen has performed the worst so far this year, experiencing a 6.3% decrease against the Dollar, as investors sought higher yields in other currencies, anticipating that Japan’s interest rates would remain close to zero for the foreseeable future.
* The Yen weakened against the Euro, Sterling, and other currencies this week, marking its 4th consecutive weekly decline against the US Dollar.
* USOil slipped to $77.85 per barrel after Fed speeches indicated delay to rate cuts.
* Gold dipped to $2021 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th February 2024.

Oil and the New Zealand Dollar Decline After Weak Economic Data!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* The New Zealand Dollar witnesses a quick decline as we approach this week’s central bank decision and press conference. The NZD falls 0.50% within the first three hours of trading.
* Oil drops to the lowest price since February 15th after investors price in a delayed interest rate cut.
* US Oil declines after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded an increase in oil reserves of 3.5 million barrels. The higher level of supply can continue to pressure quotes if demand falls.
* The US Dollar Index trades 0.12% lower during the Asian Session and so far, continues to maintain a “sell signal”.

NZDUSD – The New Zealand Dollar Declines Against All Currencies!

The day’s worst performing currency is the New Zealand Dollar which is declining against the whole currency market. Throughout the month of February, the NZD has been one of the best performing currencies, but as trading started this morning, a sizable decline was apparent. The NZDUSD is trading 0.50% lower, but the New Zealand Dollar is witnessing the strongest decline against the Pound. Against the Pound, the NZD fell 0.60% within this morning’s Asian Session.

The economy over the past 12 months within the country has seen a decline in GDP growth and Retail Sales while the Unemployment Rate has risen for four consecutive months. At the start of 2023, New Zealand had an unemployment rate of 3.4% while the latest reading was 4.00%. Economists are easily able to see how the restrictive monetary policy and weaker Chinese Market are weighing on the economy. Simultaneously, inflation remains stickier than elsewhere and considerably higher than elsewhere. These factors have resulted in economists potentially considering a more cautious tone towards the NZD.

Throughout the week, investors will mainly be keen to see what the Central Bank has to say regarding economic frailty and how this will affect monetary policy. For the current meeting, investors believe the policy will remain unchanged. However, if the economy continues to deteriorate in upcoming months, the RBNZ is likely to consider a cut sooner rather than later.



In terms of technical analysis, the price is currently “neutral” but close to a sell signal. The sell signal has not yet materialized as the exchange rate has seen significant gains over the past 2 weeks. However, if the price falls below 0.61618, the exchange rate will renew “sell” signals. Ideally investors would also like to see strength in the Dollar and the US Dollar Index. This way, the exchange rate is not experiencing two declining currencies.

USOIL – Oil Declines on Fears of a Global Slowdown!

The commodity saw a strong and sudden decline on Friday measuring 2.25% which lasted throughout the whole day. The price this morning is again witnessing a lower price as investors continue to struggle to maintain demand while the global economy is in stagnation, supply remains high and tensions in the middle east have not continued to escalate.

On Friday, the Fed’s board member Mr Waller said the Central Bank might refrain from lowering interest rates for at least several more months. Investors fear that maintaining a tight policy could cause a slowdown in economic growth. Consequently, this could limit oil demand in one of the leading consumers. Some economists have also voiced concern that other central banks in weaker economies may also follow the Fed even though their economies are underperforming.



Technical analysis, even though not a price driving factor, can assist with understanding the price condition. After the strong decline on Friday, the price is trading below most Moving Averages such as the 75-Bar-EMA and below 50.00 on the RSI. In addition to this, most timeframes show a downward crossover and the price trades below the Volume Weighted Average Price. However, Oil prices are trading at a support level which can be seen on February 21st, 15th and 12th. Therefore, to maintain a “sell” signal, the commodity will need to see fundamental factors pressure quotes further. This is likely if US economic data is lower and US inflation is higher. The US will release their Core PCE Price Index on Thursday and Germany will release their Consumer Price Index the same day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th February 2024.

Japanese Bond Yields Rise to an 11-Year High Pressuring the BOJ!



* Japan’s 2-Year Bond Yield rises to its highest level in more than 10 years. On Tuesday, Japan’s inflation rate declined from 2.3% to 2.0% which was slightly higher than expectations.
* Japan’s bond yields rise as investors continue to speculate that Japan will move away from their ultra-expansionary monetary policy.
* Investors consider whether higher bond yields will support the Yen in the month of March and if the NIKKEI225 will retrace back to the previous low.
* The US Dollar Index declines for a second consecutive day. Dollar traders will focus on today’s US Durable Goods release as well as the Consumer Confidence Index.

USDJPY – The Yen Increases in Value Against All Currencies!

The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen has been one of the only currency pairs where the Dollar has been able to gain over the past week. Whereas the Dollar in general has been struggling against most major currencies. However, this morning the Yen has risen 0.28%. This is because Japanese Bond Yields have risen, and inflation reads slightly higher than previous expectations.

Over the past week, the major resistance level which can be seen has been at 150.280, which is close to the current price. If the price breaks below this level, sell signals will continue to emerge. If the price continues to decline and form a bearish breakout, the price will also trade below the 75-bar EMA and the 50.00 level on the RSI. This would further indicate a downward price movement in the short to medium term. On 30-Minute timeframe the exchange rate has formed a bearish crossover on the Stochastic Oscillator as well as the Moving Averages. Simultaneously, the oscillator is not yet indicating an oversold price. So why is the USDJPY declining?



Investors should take into consideration that the Dollar has been depreciating for over a week even though the USDJPY has risen. Therefore, investors are considering whether the exchange rate is overbought in the short term. The US Dollar Index also trades 0.14% lower this morning and the Yen is trading higher against all currencies. One of the reasons for the Yen increasing in value is the slightly higher inflation data.

Analysts advise the inflation rate in Japan is not high enough to support the Bank of Japan changing their policy. However, the fact the rate has not fallen as sharply as analysts previously thought supports the Yen. If the inflation rate remains stable above 2.00%, the regulator may consider switching to a more traditional monetary policy, in the second or third quarter of 2024. Also supporting the Japanese Yen are Japanese Bond Yields which are increasing to their highest level in over 11 years. The 2-Year Bond Yield has risen to 0.172% from 0.00% earlier this morning.

JPN225 – Will Higher Yields Halt the NIKKEI225’s Bullish Trend?

The JPN225 has risen by almost 18% in 2024 so far and has been one of the best performing indices globally. The JPN225 has also outperformed US equities. However, investors are taking into consideration whether the JPN225 may retrace as the Yen gains. If investors use the Fibonacci levels to assist with what a retracement may look like, the indicators point to the assets declining to 37,863 as a minimum or to 35,010 as a maximum.

Alternatively, investors can use price action which indicates any retracement will on average be an 8.00% decline. Now, the index is yet to obtain a strong sell signal from indicators, however, the price is forming lower lows and highs which is a negative. In addition to this, the price has also recently been overbought on the RSI and has formed divergence signals. Therefore, investors are taking into consideration a possible retracement as Japanese Bond Yields rise and the Bank of Japan considers higher interest rates.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th February 2024.

RBNZ Says No More Hikes, NZD Crashes More Than 1%!



* The Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes a more dovish tone as the economy’s cracks start to show.
* The New Zealand Dollar declines against all currencies. Against the Pound the NZD trades 0.83% lower and it has fallen more than 1.00% against the Dollar.
* The US Dollar Index trades 0.20% higher as investors take a more cautious approach due to weaker economic data.
* US Durable Goods Orders decline more than 6.00%, the largest contraction since May 2020.

NZDUSD

The New Zealand Dollar is witnessing the highest level of volatility during this morning’s Asian session. The lowest spreads and strongest price movement can be seen on the NZDUSD. The exchange rate is trading at its lowest price since February 16th after the NZD collapsed. Over the past 12 hours, the NZDUSD has fallen 1.11% primarily due to the dovish tone taken by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and its Governor.

If we look at the 10 most traded currencies worldwide, New Zealand is the country witnessing the highest inflation and the weakest economic growth. The dovish tone taken by the RBNZ comes as a relief for locals and can support the economy. However, for the currency this simply adds more pressure. Economic weakness can primarily be seen in the New Zealand employment sector which has seen the unemployment rate rise from 3.2% to 4.00%. In addition to this, the Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate currently stands at -0.6%.

The RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, but the main concern for investors were the comments made thereafter. The governor Mr Orr in his press conference said “there was very strong consensus that the official rate is sufficient”. As a result, the economy continues to remain unattractive due to weak data and potential for another hike is no longer possible. For this reason, demand has significantly fallen for the time being.

The Dollar on the other hand is seeing demand slightly rise due to poor economic data on Monday. The weaker data triggered a lower risk appetite within the market which supported the Dollar. Investors are now concerned whether the US’s GDP figure will indeed read +3.3% as per expectations considering certain data came in relatively weak. The Durable Goods Order fell 6.1%, Core Durable Goods fell -0.3% and the CB Consumer Confidence fell instead of remaining unchanged at 114.8. Throughout the remaining sessions, the price will continue to be influenced by the comments from the RBNZ, but also will depend on the Prelim GDP reading for the US this afternoon.



In terms of technical analysis, almost all indicators point towards a downward price movement which is understandable considering the bearish momentum. However, all timeframes below the 4-hour chart are currently reading oversold on the RSI. Investors should also take this into account.

USA100

The NASDAQ was the best performing index on Monday, but there continues to be a lack of bullish signals in the short term. The USA100’s price continues to remain above the 75-bar moving average and above the neutral level on most oscillators. However, the price is not maintaining bullish momentum and is failing to form higher highs. The price also continues to trade at the previous resistance level and many economists advise the price is trading at where traders believe is appropriate, hence the lack of a trend.

When we monitor the top 20 most influential stocks, 11 of the 20 ended the day higher while 9 declined. This is also an indication of no major trend within the session. From these 20 stocks, Netflix saw the largest increase (+2.39%) and Adobe saw the largest decline (1.43%).

So far, Bond Yields trade lower, which is known to support the stock market, however, the Dollar also trades higher which indicates lower investor sentiment. The next price driver for the USA100 will be the US GDP reading. Ideally investors will want to see strong growth but not strong enough to stop the Fed from cutting rates soon. Some economists are advising a GDP reading of 3.3% or slightly lower will be ideal for the stock market.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th February 2024.

The Japanese Yen Soars After The BOJ Indicate Interest Rate Hikes!



* The Japanese Yen witnesses its strongest gains since December 2023. The USDJPY drops more than 0.70% within the first few hours of trading.
* Japanese Yen is largely being driven by comments made by a key member of the Bank of Japan.
* The Bank of Japan advise they are considering taking small steps away from negative interest rates.
* US stocks decline away from the latest resistance level and trade 0.87% lower by end of day.

USDJPY –Bank of Japan Considering Steps Towards Higher Interest Rates

Many investors are looking to take advantage of the first clear indication that the Bank of Japan will look to take a more traditional stance on its policy. In other words, move away from negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates in 2016 and since then the Yen has declined by 25% against the US Dollar and 40% against the Swiss Franc. The exchange rate is now trading at strong resistance levels from November 2023 and October 2022. However, the question now is if investors will continue investing in the Japanese Yen in the longer term?

The Yen’s advantages are its safe haven status and ability to mitigate risk away from the Dollar. Investors also note its current price is at an extremely “cheap” level compared to other options. For this reason, economists are evaluating whether investors will look to buy the Yen for the long-term considering the Bank of Japan may soon exit negative rates.



A key member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, Mr Takata, said to journalists, “It’s necessary to consider taking a nimble and flexible response, including on how to exit, or shift gear from the current extremely accommodative monetary policy”. Based on this, investors should not believe the BoJ will suddenly go on a hiking rampage or start hiking imminently. However, Mr Takata gave the first clear signal that the regulator will start hiking in 2024 to at least move away from negative rates.

Due to this the Japanese Yen rises against all currencies this morning and Japan’s 2-Year Bond Yield again renews its highs. The 2-Year Bond Yield now trades at 0.185% which is its highest level since 2011. The higher bonds yields can also support the currency and global interest in Japan’s Financial Service Market.

In addition to this, the Yen has also obtained further support from economic data this morning. Japan’s Retail Sales figure read 2.3%, higher than the 2.00% prediction. In addition to this, the Core CPI remained at 2.6%, again higher than expectations.

In terms of the US Dollar, the currency came under strain during the US Trading Session but kept to its previous price range. The currency came under slight pressure due to the Gross Domestic Product underachieving. The GDP data read 3.2% versus the 3.3% expected, however, investors should note the growth rate remains competitive. Investors are now mainly focusing on the PCE Price Index, which is a favourite of the Federal Open Market Committee. If the Index reads higher than 0.4%, rate cuts will start to feel like a far distance away. As a result, the Dollar potentially can rise, and stocks could possibly decline in the short to medium term.

USA100 – All Eyes On Today’s PCE Core Price Index

The NASDAQ continues to struggle for a fourth day as investors remain unsure on the future path of interest rates. In addition to this, investors should also note the weakness may partially be related to the end of the earnings season and due to its current high price.

The day’s price movement is likely to largely be dependent on today’s PCE Core Price Index. Analysts expect the index to read 0.4% which would be the highest since May 2023. If the index reads higher the USA100 can potentially experience significant pressure as interest rate cuts will seem a distant dream. However, if the data is lower, investors will be relieved and may re-enter at the current lower price.

Technical indicators’ signals are currently at the “neutral” level but are close to signalling a sell if the price continues to decline below $17,810. Lastly, investors will also be monitoring the performance of individual stocks within the NASDAQ. Of the top 30 influential stocks, only 3 rose in value on Wednesday indicating a clear downward trend for the day.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st March 2024.

Stocks Rise To A New All-Time High! ECB Considers An Earlier Pivot.



* The US Core PCE Price index read 0.4% in line with analysts’ expectations. January’s Core PCE Price Index was the highest reading since May 2023.
* The US Dollar Index ended the day higher but did come under pressure at times from the inflation reading.
* The NASDAQ again renews its all-time highs after rising 0.95% on Thursday and a further 0.47% in Friday’s Asian Session.
* German inflation declines to 2.6% in February putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to consider a “pivot”.

EURUSD – The ECB Consider An Earlier Rate Cut!

The EURUSD exchange rate declined by 0.28% by the end of the day, but more than 0.55% from high to low. The exchange rate came under pressure from German inflation declining from 2.9% to 2.5%, the lowest since 2021. In addition to this, the US Dollar rose in value after a short-lived decline. The Dollar continues to be supported by high inflation data.



The Germany economy has been struggling from poor economic growth and political tensions. The German GDP has not recorded an increase in the past three quarters. Overall the Germany GDP Growth Rate has actually fallen by 0.6% over the past year. Due to poor economic data and inflation now being at an acceptable level, investors are contemplating whether the ECB will cut rates soon. France also made public their latest inflation reading which fell from 3.1% to 2.9%. The largest four EU economies are now all at an inflation rate below 3.00% and very close to their 2% target. Italy is currently below the 2% and is in desperate need of monetary expansion.

Price growth in the Eurozone continues to slow down, which gives the ECB more reasons to consider cutting rates sooner rather than later. In this regard, it is worth noting the results of the latest survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters. According to the report, most economists believe that the regulator will reduce the deposits interest rate for the first time in June by 25.0 basis points, but some experts expect that the ECB will ease monetary policy in April.

The US Dollar Index is trading higher, but its growth seems uncertain. Interest rate cuts are also likely for the Federal Reserve; however, higher inflation data has pushed back the potential date. According to most analysts, a pivot is not likely until the summer months, and it would continue to depend on upcoming inflation.

US economic data has noticeably weakened, which will catch the Fed’s attention. The initial jobless claims for the week of February 23 rose from 1.86M to 1.905M compared to 1.874M expected. In addition, the dynamics of pending housing sales in January decreased by 4.9% after increasing by 5.7% earlier, falling short of forecasts of 1.0%. Though investors must note that if the employment sector remains strong, the pressure on the Federal Reserve will remain minimal.

USA100 – Can The NASDAQ Maintain Momentum!

The USA100 is now trading at its all-time highs after receiving a push from the Core PCE Price Index being unable to rise above expectations. However, technical analysts warn the asset can potentially retrace before continuing an upward trend.

When measuring previous impulse waves and the size of swings before retracing, the asset is now at a level which may indicate a pullback. Investors also note that 34% of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks ended the day lower, which does show signs of some weakness in the market. Lastly, the 10-Year Bond Yields have risen by 0.020% and the US Dollar trades slightly higher. These two factors are also known to pressure the stock market.

However, when monitoring momentum-based indicators, the USA100 is trading above trend-lines, regression channels and shows strong upward momentum. Therefore, traders will be monitoring how the asset may break out of previous significant price ranges.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th March 2024.

Market Recap – March like the proverbial lion.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* March came in like the proverbial lion with the NASDAQ composite and the S&P 500 roaring to new all time highs.
* This morning, Asian stock markets were initially boosted by a broader tech rally. Top chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co saw its highest ever level – the company is the main supplier to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. and is considered a key beneficiary of the ongoing AI boom.
* Bonds & US Treasury yields are under pressure at the start of a busy week that includes the ECB decision, Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony and China’s National People’s Congress.
* Fedspeak so far were supportive. There had been growing chatter in recent sessions that the strength in the economy could prevent the FOMC from trimming rates at all this year.
* Swiss CPI fell to 1.2% y/y in February, which is further proof that the SNB has brought inflation under control.
* Turkey’s annual CPI swung to a 15-month high, close to 70%.
* OPEC+ output cuts to remain in place until the middle of the year.
* Today: ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann & Fed’s Patrick Harker speeches.

Market Trends:

* European futures and Asian stocks higher, with key upcoming events such as Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony and China’s National People’s Congress adding to market anticipation.
* The renewed strength in the tech sector resonated across Asia, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s leading chipmaker, reaching its all-time high.
* AI and Nvidia continued to underpin investor enthusiasm, boosting the NASDAQ by 1.14% to 16,275, finally besting the 16,057 historic peak from November 2021.
* The S&P500 advanced 0.80% to 5137, also a new high, marking its 15th record of the year, and it has gained in 16 out of the last 18 sessions, the best showing since 1971.
* Nikkei (JPN225) surpassed the 40,000 mark for the first time.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex remains under pressure, falling to 103.67 but drifting within a tight range on pressure by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
* BTCUSD surged, briefly surpassing the $64,000 threshold. Market participants are speculating that the cryptocurrency is poised to exceed its previous record high of nearly $69,000, achieved during the Covid-19 pandemic.
* Gold remains in the green, edging up fractionally to $2084 per ounce.
* USOil is below $80 per barrel after OPEC+ members confirmed that output cuts will be extended through to the middle of the year. The decision was widely expected, but still supported the recent uptrend in prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.