Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

EUR/USD Aims More Upsides, USD/CHF Turns Red


EUR/USD started a strong increase above the 1.1150 resistance. USD/CHF is showing bearish signs below the 0.8650 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace against the US Dollar after it broke the 1.1150 resistance.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1225 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is consolidating losses below the 0.8650 resistance.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8590 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a strong increase and was able to settle above the 1.1150 resistance zone. The Euro even broke above 1.1200 to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.

Finally, it tested the 1.1275 zone. A high is formed near 1.1275 and the pair is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1130 swing low to the 1.1275 high.

The pair is now trading below the 50-hour simple moving average. However, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1225.

The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1130 swing low to the 1.1275 high, at 1.2000. A break below the 1.1200 support could send the pair toward the 1.1150 level.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1240. The first major resistance is near the 1.1265 level.

An upside break above 1.1265 might send the pair toward the 1.1320 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1365 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 1.1440.

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FTSE 100 Bounces Back on UK Inflation News


Participants in financial markets were closely watching yesterday the data on inflation in the UK, where it is at the highest level among the G7 countries. The news turned out to be positive:

• CPI was 7.9% (forecast = 8.2%, last month = 8.7%) in annual terms;
• Сore CPI dropped from 31-year high from 7.1% to 6.9%.

Consequently:

• the price of the British pound fell against the US dollar and other currencies;
• the price of the FTSE 100 index rose sharply, rising from the July lows by about 5%.

Thus, the quotes demonstrate the expectations of market participants — they suggest that the Bank of England has received a reason to ease the ongoing tight monetary policy aimed at suppressing inflation.

The publication of the decision of the Bank of England is scheduled for August 3, and the interest rate can be raised only by 0.25%, although earlier 0.5% was called more likely.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price Dips While Crude Oil Price Could Extend Gains


Gold price is correcting lower from the $1,988 resistance. Crude oil price is rising, and it could climb further higher toward the $77.10 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold prices failed to clear the 1,988 resistance and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• Gold traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $1,980 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are moving higher, above the $75.00 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $75.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $1,966 resistance. The price even broke the $1,980 level before the bearish sentiment arose.

XAU/USD traded as high as $1,987 before the downside correction. There was a move below a key bullish trend line with support at $1,980. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50.

The bulls are now protecting the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,945 swing low to the $1,987 high at $1,966. If they remain active, the price could start a fresh increase.

Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,978. The next major resistance is near the $1,988 level. An upside break above $1,988 could send the Gold price toward $1,995. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,000 level.

Initial support on the downside is near $1,966. The first major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,945 swing low to the $1,987 high at $1,962.

If there is a downside break below this level, the price might decline further. In the stated case, it may drop toward the $1,955 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD PRICE ANALYSIS: UPDATE ON THE MARKET SITUATION


On July 18, we wrote about the vulnerability of the market to a rollback from the block of resistance, which is formed by the level of 1.12 euros per US dollar and the upper line of the rising channel. Since then, the EUR/USD price has fallen by more than 1%.

The most noticeable was yesterday's decline in the price of EUR/USD, which was due, among other things, to the rise in price of the dollar due to a strong report on the US labor market. Weekly data showed that jobless claims fell to a nearly 2-month low.

How deep can the EUR/USD price pull back from the resistance block?

If the decline continues, then, from the point of view of technical analysis, the horizontal level 1.075 can be considered the level at which the bulls can try to change the situation:

in April-May this level worked as resistance;
approximately, here passes the Fibonacci line 50% of the growth A→B.

The decision of the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points could lead to bullish momentum in the EUR/USD price. The decision will be announced on July 27.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's July 17 - 21 Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUR/USD, FTSE 100, CRUDE OIL PRICES, NETFLIX NEWS

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• EUR/USD price reaches 17-month maximum. Last week, the dollar index posted its worst week of 2023
• FTSE 100 bounces back on UK inflation news. The quotes demonstrate the expectations of market participants
• Crude Oil prices experience mild volatility as China's economic outlook boosts sentiment
• Is Netflix ending bull season? Some positive news, some negative news

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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MSFT Stocks: Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis


This week 166 companies that make up 33% of the S&P 500 index will publish their reports for the second quarter. Among them, the second largest company in the index, Microsoft. And here, an interesting situation develops: the fundamental background is quite strong, and technical analysis shows signs of weakness. Judge for yourself.

Fundamental analysis:

• the Android version of the sensational ChatGPT will be released this week;
• Fundstrat analysts see a target price for MSFT shares of around USD 380 in the short term and USD 426 in the long term;
• Barclays analysts have rated MSFT stock as a Buy with a target of USD 425 (previous MSFT share price target of USD 425) amid Microsoft 365 AI rollout.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Revisits Support While USD/CAD Regains Strength


GBP/USD is trading near the 1.2800 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3230 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.3120 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2870 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is rising steadily from the 1.3120 support zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3200 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.3120 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.3050 support and moved into a bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2970 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2815 level. A low is formed near 1.2816 and the pair is now consolidating losses. It is testing a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2870.

The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3124 swing high to the 1.2816 low at 1.2890.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2970 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3124 swing high to the 1.2816 low. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.3050 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2840. The next major support sits at 1.2815 or 1.2800, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2650.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Price of Brent Oil Reaches the Level of Resistance


Since the beginning of the month, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by about 10% — this July could be the best month since June 2022. Yesterday, the price of Brent exceeded USD 82, for the first time since April.

Among the drivers of oil price growth may be:

• production cuts by Saudi Arabia;
• restriction of export from the Russian Federation;
• expectations of new measures to stimulate the Chinese economy;
• summer growth in demand for gasoline and aviation fuel in the US.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

BTC/USD Analysis: Breakdown of July Support


Yesterday, the price of BTC/USD fell below the level of 29,700, a support that has been in place for about a month.

What are the reasons for the decline? CNBC writes about:

strengthening of the USD on the eve of the Fed's meeting on the interest rate, which puts pressure on the price of bitcoin, denominated in US dollars;
an article in the WSJ raising concerns for the crypto industry in light of the pending SEC lawsuit against Binance.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Google Report Gives Positive Momentum to S&P 500 Price Ahead of Fed Decision


Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session, the reports of Microsoft and Google, one of the leaders of the AI-related boom, were published.

MSFT's share price fell more than 3% post-market as, despite Microsoft's Q2 performance for 2023 exceeding analysts' expectations, the company's forecasts for future periods turned out to be disappointing.

But the growth in the price of GOOG shares (in the postmarket) at the peak exceeded 7%. The company has demonstrated revenue growth in both search engines and YouTube and Cloud services, as well as through online advertising sales.

However, the main event of the week will take place today — namely, the news from the Fed at 21:00 GMT+3. Market participants are divided in their opinion: either the interest rate will be increased to 5.5% or remain unchanged at 5.25%. Also of great interest will be the words of Powell at a press conference at 21:30 GMT+3 regarding the rate of falling inflation, how much this will affect the current tight monetary policy.

Pending news from the Fed, trading volumes on the CME E-mini S&P 500 futures were well below average on Monday and Tuesday, but today there is likely to be a surge in volatility.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.