Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

What Events Will Affect Your Trading This Week?


Despite a quiet start to the week for the US holidays, there is still plenty going on. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept interest rates at 4.1%, sending the Aussie dollar lower before flying back like a boomerang to where it was trading, at 0.6680 against the USD.


On Wednesday (21:00), we get to see the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, where they held rates at 5.25%. However, the market is pricing in at least two more rate hikes by the end of the year, so traders will be looking for clues in the minutes as to if and when this might happen.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Drops Again While USD/CHF Gains Strength


EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.0930 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9015 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0930 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is gaining pace above the 0.8965 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8980 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled many times near the 1.0930 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.0931 swing high against the US Dollar.

There was a move below the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0890. The bears were able to push the pair below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0835 swing low to the 1.0931 high.

It seems like the pair might continue to move down considering the RSI is below 35. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chartis seen near 1.0845. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0835 swing low to the 1.0931 high.

The next major support is near the 1.0835 level. A downside break below the 1.0835 support could send the pair toward the 1.0780 level.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0890. It is close to a major bearish trend line. The first major resistance is near 1.0920. The next key resistance is near the 1.0930 level.

An upside break above the 1.0930 level might send the pair toward the 1.0970 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1010 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USDJPY Analysis: Calm Before the Storm?


There is some lull (consolidation) in the USD/JPY market, which is evidenced by the width of the Bollinger bands, which dropped to the lows of the end of February on the 4-hour chart. Bank holidays in the US in connection with the celebration of Independence Day contributed to the decrease in volatility.

However, the calm could be replaced by a storm.

The USD/JPY chart shows that the bulls have tested the level of 144 and on the morning of July 5, the rate is gradually rising towards the level of 145 — technically this can be interpreted as a demand force for dollars.

Reuters reports the words of Shusuke Yamada, chief forex strategist at Bank of China, who believes that the market expects further weakening of the yen in the medium term. And this is important, because last fall, the level of 145 yen per US dollar was the trigger for intervention by the Bank of Japan.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

FTSE 100 Drops Below June Low


Earlier we wrote about the reasons for the weak behavior of the UK stock market.

Firstly, it is the highest inflation among the G7 countries.

Yesterday JP Morgan analysts suggested that the base rate in the UK could be raised to 7% under certain scenarios. And the likelihood of a hard landing for the British economy next year is rising due to the impact of rising borrowing costs on business confidence and rising unemployment.

Secondly, this is a decline in commodity prices, which is important for the FTSE 100 index, where the share of oil and mining companies is relatively large. Commodity prices reflect expectations of a global economic growth outlook that has been overshadowed by news from China. There, according to the latest data, activity in the services sector in June grew at the slowest pace in 5 months.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price Struggles While Crude Oil Price Aims Higher


Gold price is moving lower below the $1,918 support. Crude oil price is rising as the bulls aim for a move above the $72.20 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear the $1,930 resistance and start a fresh decline against the US Dollar.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,925 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are also moving higher above the $71.50 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $70.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to start a fresh increase above the $1,930 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,918 support.

There was a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and $1,912. It tested the $1,910 support zone. A low is formed at $1,902.60 and the price is now consolidating losses above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,927 swing high to the $1,902 low.

The price is now facing resistance near the $1,912 level. The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,918. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,927 swing high to the $1,902 low.

The main resistance is near a bearish trend line at $1,925 and then $1,930. An upside break above the $1,930 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,938. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,950 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,902 level. The first major support is near the $1,892 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,892 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,880 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Price Has Updated the High of the Year, What's Wrong With That?


In an interview with Fox Business, the CEO of Black Rock fund (over $8 trillion under management), Larry Fink, made some positive comments about bitcoin. Briefly:

→ bitcoin can become a catalyst for the tokenization of various assets and securities, which, in turn, can lead to a revolution in the financial sector;
→ bitcoin has unique properties that distinguish it from traditional stores of value such as gold. For example, its international recognition.

Fink also expressed the hope that the positive experience of cooperation between Black Rock and the SEC will allow the regulator to approve the launch of an ETF based on bitcoin (the application has already been submitted, but Larry did not give forecasts on the timing of its consideration).


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's July 3 - 7 Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: TSLA STOCK, USD/JPY, NASDAQ, FTSE 100 DROPS

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• Market Analysis: Wall Street optimistic ahead of inflation news
• TSLA Stock: Price Chart Analysis. The bull market continues...
• Market Analysis. USD/JPY: Calm before the storm?
• NASDAQ Analysis: Index Is at 1-year High! Is It Sustainable?
• Market Analysis: FTSE 100 drops below June low. What gives hope to the bulls?

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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GBP/USD Regains Strength, USD/CAD Corrects Lower


GBP/USD started a strong increase and retested 1.2850. USD/CAD is correcting gains and trading below the 1.3300 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.2760 resistance.
• There was a break above a connecting trend line with resistance near 1.2780 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD declined below the 1.3320 and 1.3300 support levels.
• It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.3320 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair was able to climb above the 1.2720 resistance zone. The British Pound gained strength after it broke the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2760.

During the increase, there was a break above a connecting trend line with resistance near 1.2780. It opened the doors for a move toward the 1.2850 resistance where the bears emerged. A high is formed near 1.2849 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

The RSI dipped below the 60 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2673 swing low to the 1.2849 high.

Immediate resistance is forming near the 1.2850 level. The next resistance is near 1.2880. An upside break above the 1.2880 zone could send the pair toward 1.2950. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.3000.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.2805 area. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2673 swing low to the 1.2849 high at 1.2760 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

If there is a break below 1.2760, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.2720 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2650 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Weak Dollar’s Position


Bloomberg writes that the big hedge funds have flipped and are now taking a short position on the dollar in the expectation that the Fed is nearing the end of its cycle of raising interest rates.

It is possible that the weakness of the USD against a basket of other currencies is influenced by the announced intentions of the BRICS countries to issue a currency backed by gold.

Be that as it may, however, the EUR/USD rate has risen by an impressive 1.5% since the low of July 6, reaching a maximum since May 8. At the same time, the EUR/USD chart shows that:

→ the price has broken the downward channel upwards (shown in red);

→ the bulls are so bold that they are trying to break the double SHS pattern formation.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin at $120k


The value of the largest cryptocurrency could reach USD 50,000 this year and USD 120,000 by the end of 2024, according to analysts at Standard Chartered, Reuters reports.

Note that earlier, bank analysts predicted that the cost of BTC at the end of 2024 would be USD 100,000, but now they have increased their forecast for the price of bitcoin by 20%, based on the assumption of a change in the behavior of miners that can limit the supply of bitcoins as its price rises.

Time will tell how true the bitcoin price forecast for 2024 from Standard Chartered will be, but on the BTC/USD chart today there is an argument in favor of the fact that the forecast can be realized. This is the nature of price action around the USD 30k psychological level.

Compare 2 periods when the price of bitcoin exceeded USD 30k.

In April, the price met strong resistance only USD 500 higher, and a week after the breakdown of USD 30k, it rushed down.

And now is the second period, which began on June 21 and continues to last. The level of immediate resistance above the psychological level is already higher — at around 31k, and the price of bitcoin has not fallen (except for short-term punctures) below USD 30k for almost 3 weeks.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.