Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

EUR/USD Takes Hit While USD/JPY Turns Green


EUR/USD started a fresh decline below 1.1145. USD/JPY climbed higher above 141.00, but it might now correct gains in the near term.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro declined below the 1.1145 and 1.1095 support levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1095 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 140.00 and 141.35 levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 141.35 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.1230 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.1140 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.1095 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.1020, and the pair is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.1020 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1065. The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 1.1095.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1146 swing high to the 1.1020 low is also near 1.1095. An upside break above 1.1095 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1140.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support is near 1.1020. The next key support is near 1.1000. If there is a downside break below 1.1000, the pair could drop toward 1.0965. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0920, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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The US Dollar Weakens After the Fed's Decision to Raise Rates


After the 11th increase, the interest rate reached 5.5%.

At the same time, the US dollar weakened because:

• market participants may consider this to be the last hike in the cycle (although Powell admitted the possibility of a rate hike in September);
• the Fed is no longer considering a recession scenario, which has reduced the relevance of cash as a defensive asset. Reuters reports analysts saying Powell's tone has become more dovish.

The weakening of the US dollar led to an increase in the prices of currencies traded in tandem with the USD. Thus, the EUR/USD rate rose by 0.75% from the low of the week, where the support block is located:

• level 50% of growth A→B;
• median line of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
• level 1.02, which worked as a resistance in June.

At the same time, the nearest resistance is at the level of 1.111, which was support last week. Pay attention to the rate of decline in the price on the EUR/USD chart on the 20th and 24th — a sign of the initiative of the bears. Will they be able to break through the support block, or will the bulls intend to use it as a support for a new swing within the channel shown in blue? There should be more arguments for reasoning after the news from the ECB is released today at 15:15 GMT+3.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Breakdown Looks Real


AUD/USD declined below the 0.6760 and 0.6720 support levels. NZD/USD also declined towards 0.6150, and it remains at risk of more losses.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6800 level against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6750 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.6260 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.6200 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to stay above the 0.6800 level. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6760 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6750. The pair even settled below 0.6720 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 0.6655, and the pair is now consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6821 swing high to the 0.6655 low at 0.6695.

The next major resistance is near 0.6720, above which the price could rise toward the 50-hour simple moving average and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6821 swing high to the 0.6655 low.

A close above the 0.6760 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6790.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6655 level. The next support could be the 0.6620 level. If there is a downside break below 0.6620, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6600 handle. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6550 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

BOJ’s decision Leads to Sharp Surge in Volatility


The interest rate in Japan has remained unchanged since 2016 at -0.1%. Thus, the leadership of the Bank of Japan, unlike its counterparts, is pursuing a stable ultra-soft policy. This morning, the expected decision to keep the interest rate was published, but the attention of traders was attracted by the intention of the Bank of Japan to offer the market 10-year government bonds (JGB) at a fixed rate of 1.0% instead of 0.5%. This is a hint at a possible tightening of policy, which could greatly affect the yen.

Against the backdrop of the latest news from the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the USD/JPY rate was extremely volatile. The extremes of the last 3 days indicate a range formed by support at 138.0 and resistance at 141.4. It is acceptable to assume that after a surge in volatility, the USD/JPY rate will consolidate within this range.

Note also that the support near 138.0 is reinforced by the SMA (100) and the lower boundary of the long-term channel. But it is possible that a surge in volatility could change the balance of supply and demand and lead to a bearish breakdown of the upward channel that has been operating in the USD/JPY market since the beginning of 2023.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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• The US dollar weakens after the Fed's decision to raise rates. Will the bears be able to break through the support block, or will the bulls intend to use it as a support for a new swing?
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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GBP/USD Attempts Fresh Increase While EUR/GBP Faces Hurdle


GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2770 region. EUR/GBP is consolidating and remains at risk of more downsides below 0.8545.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.2805 resistance.
• There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2860 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP declined below the 0.8600 and 0.8580 support levels.
• There is a key breakout pattern forming with support near 0.8560 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.3000 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound would remain at risk of more downsides if it cleared the 1.2840 and 1.2805 levels against the US Dollar.

The pair extended its decline and tested the 1.2770 zone. A low is formed near 1.2762, and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2995 swing high to the 1.2762 low.

The pair is now consolidating below the 50-hour simple moving average. The GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a short-term contracting triangle at 1.2860.

The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2995 swing high to the 1.2762 low at 1.2880. The main breakout zone could be 1.2900. If the RSI moves above 60 and the pair climbs above 1.2900, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.3000 level or even 1.3050.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2805. If there is a downside break below it, the pair could accelerate lower.

The next major support is near the 1.2770 zone, below which GBP/USD could test 1.2740. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.2650.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Australian Dollar Plummeting After RBA Decision


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this morning decided to leave the interest rate at 4.10%, although market participants expected an increase to 4.35%.

According to the forecast of the central bank, inflation in Australia will return to its target range of 2-3% by the end of 2025 from the current 6%. At the same time, a warning was made that additional tightening (rate increase) may be required to curb inflation.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY Daily Chart Outlook: Dollar Could Outperform


EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.1265 zone. USD/JPY is rising and might aim to move above the 144.85 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis

• The Euro failed to clear 1.1265 and declined below 1.1090.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0965 on the daily chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed above the 140.00 and 141.15 levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line in place with support at 139.00 on the daily chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the daily chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.1265 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.1090 support zone to move into a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even spiked below 1.1000 before the bulls emerged near 1.0965. The euro seems to be finding bids near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0661 swing low to the 1.1275 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0965. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-day simple moving average at 1.0920.

The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0661 swing low to the 1.1275 high is also near 1.0920. If there is a downside break below 1.0920, the pair could drop toward 1.0800. Any more losses could open the doors for a move to 1.0660.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.1090 zone, above which the bulls might aim for a steady increase. The next major resistance is near 1.1265. An upside break above 1.1265 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1340.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The GBP/USD Exchange Rate Falls to a Month’s Minimum


Yesterday and today, the GBP/USD rate fell below 1.27 for the first time since July 6. A number of factors contributed to this:

• strengthening of the US dollar index due to downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch;
• strong data on the ADP labor market — the number of jobs in the US, excluding the agricultural sector, increased by more than 300k over the month;
• market expectation of news from the Bank of England, which will publish its interest rate decision today at 14:00 GMT+3.

According to Reuters, forecasts for the UK economy are disappointing. Market participants expect a 14th rate hike by the Bank of England by 0.25%.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold and Crude Oil: Long-Term Outlook


Gold price could restart a steady increase above the $1,990 resistance. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward $85.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price corrected lower from $2,080 and tested $1,900 against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $1,940 on the daily chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $76.75 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near $71.00 on the daily chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the daily chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price started a downside correction from the $2,080 zone. The price traded below the $2,050 and $1,990 levels.

Finally, the bulls appeared near the $1,900 level. A low was formed near $1,900 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,080 swing high to the $1,900 low.

The price is now trading above the 50-day simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,940.

Immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,080 swing high to the $1,900 low at $1,990. The next major resistance is near $2,000. An upside break above $2,000 could send Gold price toward $2,050. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,080 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,940 level. The first major support is near $1,900. If there is a downside break below $1,900, the price might decline further. In the stated case, XAU/USD might drop toward $1,805.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.