Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Microsoft Becomes the Most Expensive Company in the World, Surpassing Apple


According to the results of trading shares of AAPL and MSFT yesterday, the market capitalization is:
→ Apple: USD 2.875 trillion.
→ Microsoft: USD 2.887 trillion.

This is facilitated by:
→ positive expectations of investors in shares of MSFT, connected with the leading positions of the company in the field of artificial intelligence;
→ negative sentiments regarding AAPL and demand for its products (as we wrote on January 4). Moreover, the New York Times writes that the Justice Department is preparing to initiate a large-scale antitrust case against Apple because of the dominant position of Apple's devices on the market and the measures that the company used to protect against threats to its business.

MarketWatch provides FactSet statistics on analysts' forecasts:
→ AAPL: +6% for the next 12 months, MSFT: +9%.
→ MSFT has such ratings: "buy": 90%, "neutral": 10%, "sell": 0%.
→ AAPL has such ratings: "buy": 57%, "neutral": 34%, "sell": 9%.

While the price of AAPL is below the maximum of 2023 by approximately 6%, the price of MSFT shares managed to renew the historical record in 2024: at the peak on January 11, MSFT gave more than 390 USD per share.

On January 31, data will be published on Microsoft’s Q4. It is not excluded that while waiting for positive figures, the price of the stock will increase, approaching the psychological level of 400 USD.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

US Dollar a Bastion of Strength After Christopher Waller's Calm Speech


Yesterday was a day that many corporate giants and private individuals across the United States had been waiting for, as it was the day during which Federal Reserve Bank governor Christopher Waller gave an official speech in the public domain regarding the possibilities of the United States economy reaching a point at which it can sustain an inflation rate of 2%.

Monetary policymakers within the United States had set themselves a target of driving down the rampant inflation the country experienced approximately two years ago to a sufficient level that it would reach 2% and remain at a steady 2% for the longer term.

Until yesterday's speech by Mr Waller, there was no tangible information from the Federal Reserve relating to how achievable this target would be. However, companies and investors alike may well have continued to tread a cautious route because of the continual interest rate rises the Federal Reserve had implemented over the course of last year despite inflation continuing to decrease.

This ultra-conservative monetary policy is not exclusive to the United States, of course. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both central banks which are responsible for the monetary policy of financial jurisdictions with equally important economies which are home to major currencies, had implemented comparatively strict measures to combat inflation by curbing spending with higher interest rates.

Another symptom of these rate rises alongside high inflation figures is that it increases the amount that private individuals and companies have to pay each month to cover their existing borrowing. This is a very important factor because if the proposed rate cuts take place this year on both sides of the Atlantic, more capital will likely be available from the same revenue figures, allowing companies to invest in growth or to report higher profits due to the lower operating costs compared to the past two years.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Dollar Continues to Strengthen since the Beginning of the Year


The dollar index is hovering at a one-month high against a basket of currencies as remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller dampened expectations of a March rate cut.

He said that while the U.S. is "within striking distance" of the Fed's 2% inflation target, the Fed should not rush to cut its benchmark interest rate until it is clear that lower inflation will be sustainable.

Market expectations for a rate cut in March fell to 62.2%, down from a forecast of 76.9% in the previous session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

The EUR/USD chart today shows that:
→ The rate dropped below the important psychological mark of 1.09 euros per dollar. Now (in case of testing) this level can serve as resistance.
→ The decline in EUR/USD from the peak at the end of December 2023 has already exceeded 2.3%. Will the trend continue?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Gold Price Dips Again and Crude Oil Price Turns Red


Gold price is correcting gains below the $2,040 support. Crude oil prices declined steadily below the $72.90 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,060 zone before it corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,040 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $72.90 support zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $72.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,040 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,060 before there was a downside correction.

There was a move below the $2,040 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,030 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $2,020 zone. A low is formed near $2,019.32 and the price is now showing bearish signs.

Immediate resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,062 swing high to the $2,019 low at $2,030.

The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at $2,040. The trend line is close to the 50-hour simple moving average and coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,062 swing high to the $2,019 low.

The main resistance could be $2,055, above which the price could test the $2,070 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,080. An upside break above the $2,080 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,120. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,135 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,020 level. The first major support is near the $2,012 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,012 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,980 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Reaches a Monthly Maximum


The dollar rate rose yesterday as a market reaction to the statement by Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, who advocated for a more measured approach to the launch of the monetary easing cycle. According to the official, inflation in the country has indeed reached the upper bounds of the target range of 2.0–3.0%. However, at the moment, it is necessary to ensure that prices remain within these limits or continue to decline in the longer term. Meanwhile, markets still believe that the regulator may begin adjusting borrowing costs at the March meeting. Currently, more than 70.0% of analysts expect such a scenario, compared to 80.0% last week. In the United States today, December statistics on retail sales and industrial production volumes will be published, as well as the monthly economic review from the Federal Reserve, known as the "Beige Book."

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair shows a slight decrease, consolidating near the 1.0870 mark and local lows from December 13. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at the 1.0933 mark, and a breakthrough could trigger an increase to 1.0987. On the other hand, the nearest support is seen at the 1.0856 level, and a break below could lead the pair to 1.0825.

Macroeconomic statistics from Germany did not provide significant support for the single currency. Thus, revised inflation data for December showed no changes compared to November's statistics when the consumer price index was 0.1% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis. Yesterday, the head of the National Bank of Austria, Robert Holzmann, stated that the European regulator may refrain from correcting monetary policy in 2024. This position was supported by the president of the German Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, and the director of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who noted that it is too early to discuss a reduction in the interest rate since inflation rates exceed preliminary estimates. At the same time, the business sentiment index in Germany in January from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) rose from 12.8 points to 15.2 points, while analysts expected 12.0 points. The indicator of current economic conditions decreased from -77.1 points to -77.3 points, with a forecast of -77.0 points. Investors will focus on December inflation data in the eurozone today, but no significant market reaction is expected. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak later in the day.

A new descending channel has formed at the week's lows. Currently, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of Inflation Data


Yesterday, the stock market in the United Kingdom experienced a sharp decline following the release of new inflation data. The UK100 price, reflecting the leading British stock index FTSE, dropped approximately 1.5%. Moreover, the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below the value of 18 for the first time since July 2023.

Analysts attribute this decline to the published inflation data, which not only failed to meet economists' expectations but also indicated a possible strengthening of inflationary pressure in the country. CPI values: actual = 4.0%, expected = 3.8%, previous value = 3.9%.

This raised concerns among investors regarding the Bank of England's future steps in managing interest rates and the potential slowdown in the country's economic growth.

Sectors most sensitive to changes in interest rates, such as real estate and finance, showed the greatest decline. Significant decreases were also observed in the stocks of companies in the retail and consumer goods sectors, reflecting growing concerns about consumer confidence and spending.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024


Yesterday, the monthly oil market review was published:

→ OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, representing a 2.2% increase compared to 2023.

→ In 2025, OPEC predicts a demand increase of 1.85 million barrels per day, reaching 106.21 million barrels per day. It is anticipated that the growth in oil consumption in 2025 will be driven by China, the Middle East, and India.

This aligns with Occidental Petroleum's perspective, where they anticipate a global oil shortage starting in 2025, as the pace of global oil demand growth is roughly four times higher than the volumes of new reserves.

However, according to Citi analysts, the price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $60 per barrel due to oversupply.

As of today, the price of Brent crude oil is fluctuating in the consolidation zone around $77 per barrel. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential for an increase in the Brent oil price due to geopolitical tensions. For instance, Maersk has reported that escalation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will lead to disruptions in global logistics.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Recovers While EUR/GBP Dives Below Support


GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2690 resistance. EUR/GBP declined steadily below the 0.8585 and 0.8570 support levels.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2650.
• There is a key contracting triangle forming with support near 1.2690 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8585 pivot level.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8570 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.2800 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.2715 support against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.2600 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2740. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2785 swing high to the 1.2596 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2715. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2785 swing high to the 1.2596 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.27640. A close above the 1.2740 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2790. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2840.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near a contracting triangle at 1.2690. If there is a downside break below 1.2690, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.2640 level.

The next key support is seen near 1.2600, below which the pair could test 1.2550. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2500 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NASDAQ 100 Reaches Historic High. META Shares May Surpass the Historical High


The American stock index NASDAQ 100 has set a new historical high, surpassing the psychological mark of 17,000 points.

The growth was attributed to:

→ Analysts at Bank of America raising the rating of AAPL stocks, recommending them for BUY. The price of AAPL shares rose by almost 4%.

→ The growth of AMD and NVDA stock prices, as chip manufacturers are significant beneficiaries due to the widespread adoption of AI.

→ The earnings season gaining momentum. Market participants anticipate strong results from major technology companies (MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, and others).

Note the movement of META stock price – the social media giant is close to reclaiming a $1 trillion market capitalisation.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Dollar Is Strengthening, Driven by Employment Data


Yesterday's US labour market data indicated an increase in employment, dampening hopes of an interest rate cut. The Labor Department stated on Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 187,000, seasonally adjusted, for the week ending January 13, which is the lowest level since September 2022 and below economists' expectations of 207,000. Separate data from the US Department of Commerce showed that single-family housing construction slowed in December after a previous period of growth. The low supply in the secondary market continues to support new construction. Throughout the day, the US will release data on existing home sales, which may increase by 0.8-0.9%, equivalent to around 3.82 million units sold, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, with forecasts suggesting a slight increase from 69.7 points to 70.0 points.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair is decreasing after an earlier rise. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0906, and a breakthrough could trigger an upward move to 1.0958. On the other hand, the nearest support is visible at 1.0844, and a breakthrough below may lead the pair to 1.0800. The euro's exchange rate has remained nearly unchanged as investors digest the December meeting minutes of the European Central Bank. According to reports on Thursday, ECB policymakers expressed confidence in achieving the inflation target but acknowledged numerous risks, justifying the continuation of a stable policy and high borrowing costs. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at the meeting and emphasised the absence of upcoming rate hikes. With the focus shifting to the ECB's January policy decision, the market is entering a period of calm.

The previous downward channel is still in place. The price has now retreated from the upper channel boundary and may continue to decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.