Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

JPM Stock Hits All-time High


This week the reporting season begins — company results for the 4th quarter will certainly become one of the most important drivers of stock index prices, along with the publication of news about inflation, the labor market, and statements from the Federal Reserve.

Large banks will traditionally be among the first to report: JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi. The banking sector looks frankly strong at the beginning of 2024. While the S&P-500 is down 1% in the first week, the XLF financial sector fund is holding near the year's opening price.

According to MarketWatch, bank stocks are becoming increasingly popular amid expectations of a positive yield curve in the second half of 2024, and analysts have set “buy” ratings on shares of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo (WFC).

It should be noted that shares of JP Morgan bank set a historical record. The previous high set on October 25, 2021 was USD 172.75 per share. At its peak last Friday, the price reached USD 173.19 per share.

The growth of JPM shares is facilitated by the dividend policy:
→ January 2024: USD 1.05 per share;
→ January 2023: USD 1.00 per share;
→ January 2022: USD 1.00 per share;
→ January 2021: USD 0.90 per share;
→ January 2020: USD 0.90 per share.

JPM data will be published on Friday. Will the price be able to maintain its highs?

There are some concerns.

From a fundamental point of view, in the current economic environment, with inflation remaining above target and interest rates at high levels, the results for the 4th quarter may disappoint.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Loses Gains Due to US Services Data


The dollar initially rose on Friday but then retreated after data showed the US services sector fell sharply in December, erasing gains made after a report showed stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls last month. Earlier in the session, the dollar jumped after data showed the US economy added 216,000 new jobs in December, topping the consensus forecast of 170,000. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing index fell to 50.6 last month, the lowest since May, down from 52.7 in November. The service sector makes up more than two-thirds of the economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would change little to 52.6.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.0940 level. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.1045. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0918, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0875. The eurozone reported lower-than-expected consumer price index data (2.9% vs. 3.0%).

Over the past week, a trading range has formed with boundaries of 1.0875 and 1.1000. Now the price is in the middle of the range and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Swiss National Bank Suffered Losses of 3 Billion Francs in 2023


The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported an annual loss of 3 billion Swiss francs (USD 3.54 billion) in 2023 and said it would not make payments to Switzerland's central or local government or pay dividends to investors.

The loss is believed to have occurred as a result of interest rate hikes aimed at fighting inflation.

Although in Switzerland, perhaps, inflation is at the lowest level: according to yesterday's Core Price Index data, the actual value is = 0.0% (expected = 0.1%, a year ago = -0.2%, the highest actual value in 2023 was = +0.7 %). However, the SNB raised the rate to 1.75% twice in 2023, and this led to it making more payments to deposit account holders.

Note that the loss for 2023 is much less than the record minus 133 billion for 2022. Reuters writes that the losses will not affect the bank's current monetary policy, and interest rates could be cut during 2024.

On November 2, we wrote that the franc could continue to strengthen. Since then, USD/CHF has fallen about 6%, setting its 2023 low on December 28 at 0.83327.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

British Companies Bullish on Economic Strength, but Pound Dips


The British economy, despite being free from the high-profile catastrophes during the past year that dogged progress in the United States, has been the subject of trepidation from corporate giants and investors alike recently.

There has been no such series of bank collapses or near-insolvent government coffers on Britain's shores. In contrast, last year, there was a host of large-scale fiscal disasters in the United States, including the demise of some long-established banks and a need for the US government to raise the debt ceiling to be able to borrow more money to stop the country becoming insolvent, despite its already very high national debt.

The anomaly amid these two yardstick economies is that during the course of last year, the US dollar remained very buoyant against all other majors despite these weaknesses, which could possibly be down to a highly productive workforce and inflation that became well under control before it did in Europe and the United Kingdom.

Today, a potential beacon of light for the British economy has emerged in the form of a report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, which indicates that Britain may be well positioned to increase its standing as a global hub for manufacturing.

Such a report may come as a surprise to many, as Britain, along with many other Western countries with high-cost bases, is not often viewed as a nation with attractive entry points for goods manufacturers due to high salaries, energy costs, worker shortages, high taxation, logistical issues and more recently, the added cost and bureaucracy associated with Brexit.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CAD, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Analysis: Major Currency Pairs in Consolidation Phase


Despite higher than expected NFP figures, published last week, the US dollar suffered a downward pullback. Thus, the pound/US dollar pair retested support at 1.2600 and sharply rose above 1.2700, the US dollar/loonie pair fell to 1.3290, and the euro/US dollar pair managed to briefly return to 1.1000. At the same time, it was not possible to develop a full-fledged downward movement, and since the beginning of the current five-day trading period, the main currency pairs continue to trade in narrow flat corridors.

USD/CAD


On the daily chart of USD/CAD, the upward pullback, which we observed on December 27, was interrupted on Friday by a sharp rebound from the resistance in the form of intertwined alligator lines. The price retreated from 1.3400, but managed to remain above 1.3300, which may increase the likelihood of a resumption of upward movement. Cancellation of the upward scenario can be considered after a confident consolidation below 1.3270.

Today at 16:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of data on the trade balance and permits for the construction of new houses in Canada for December. Tomorrow at 18:30 GMT+3, data on crude oil reserves in the United States will be released.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Revisits Support While USD/CHF Aims Higher


EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.0980 support. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.8620 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1000 resistance and declined against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0945 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF is gaining pace above the 0.8500 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8530 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1000 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0980 support against the US Dollar.

There was a move below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0945. The bears were able to push the pair below the 1.0920 pivot level. The pair traded as low as 1.0910 and is currently consolidating losses.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0978 swing high to the 1.0610 low. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0945 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0980 zone. An upside break above the 1.0980 level might send the pair toward the 1.1020 resistance or the 1.618 Fib extension level of the downward move from the 1.0978 swing high to the 1.0610 low. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1050 level.

On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0910. The next major support is near the 1.0890 level. A downside break below the 1.0890 support could send the pair toward the 1.0850 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Inflation in Australia Continues To Decline. AUD/USD Tests Important Support


Data today from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.3% year-on-year in November, the slowest pace since January 2022. Value a month earlier = 4.9%. Market forecasts = 4.4%.

This strengthened market expectations that interest rates would not have to rise further. Although the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock, warned of the risks of rising price pressures caused by domestic demand, for example, due to rising prices for rental housing.

Against the backdrop of the publication of news about inflation in Australia, no strong surges were noticed in the AUD/USD market. Perhaps this was due to the fact that there were no surprises.

Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD rate is nearing important support, which is formed by the lower line of the trend channel (shown in blue), within which the price has been moving since last fall.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500 Rebounds Despite Boeing's Commercial Disaster


Stock markets in the United States have been very interesting over recent years. However, it has not just been a case of following the volatile tech stocks on the NASDAQ, as the more traditional companies that are included in the S&P 500 can also make waves.

This week, the S&P 500 index has experienced a very sudden change in fortunes, showing a noticeably different pattern compared to its very strong growth that has been consistent since November 2023.

At FXOpen, the S&P 500 index stood at 4,119 points on October 27 before beginning a substantial rally in which it increased over several weeks before touching 4,780 points on January 1 this year.

Such a strong rally showed consistent growth among the most prestigious large-cap companies on the American stock markets, demonstrating remarkable progress in the growth of the US economy overall; however, whilst the country itself may be back on track, there is one extremely high-profile aspect that has begun to dampen the progress made since November with regard to the S&P 500 index.

This week, in the aftermath of the incident, which took place in Portland, Oregon, in which a Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft had made an emergency landing after a section of its fuselage disconnected from the aircraft mid-flight, there have been severe repercussions for its manufacturer.

Seattle-based Boeing Company, which is one of the world's largest civilian aircraft manufacturers, is a key component of the S&P 500 index, and its share price has been affected by this incident, which builds further on a previous issue in which a similar model of aircraft, a Boeing 737-8 MAX operated by Ethiopian Airlines crashed due to an innate design fault in 2019 killing 157 people with an ongoing litigation having cost Boeing approximately $20 billion so far.

This latest incident has caused Boeing stock to dive, and this week, the S&P 500's previously unstoppable rally ended, taking the value down to 4,694 on January 4 at FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Strengthens ahead of Inflation Data Release


Yesterday, the US dollar rose against all major currencies, as it is unclear when the Fed will lower rates. The main economic data this week will be the December consumer price inflation report, which is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Expectations call for headline inflation to increase 0.2% month-on-month, reaching 3.2% year-on-year growth. If data confirms that inflation continues to slow, it could increase expectations of a rate cut in March.

A New York Fed survey released Monday showed consumers see lower inflation and slower growth in household income and spending over the next few years. Last week's better-than-expected employment figures, coupled with the latest Fed minutes that expressed ambiguity about the timing of rate cuts, have dampened expectations of an imminent US policy easing. The dollar is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) business optimism index rose from 90.6 points to 91.9 points in December, while analysts expected 90.7 points, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index rose from 40.0 points in January to 44.7 points with a forecast of 42.0 points.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0930. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.1045. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0910, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0875.

Yesterday, the positions of the single currency came under pressure, but traders expect the emergence of new drivers for making trading decisions. Investors are concerned about the development of the crisis in the EU and, in particular, in Germany, which could be aggravated by large-scale protests by farmers across the country. In turn, German data on the dynamics of industrial production in November showed a decrease of 0.7% after -0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected moderate growth of 0.25%, and in annual terms the decline accelerated from -3.4% to -4.8%.

The same trading range with boundaries of 1.0875 and 1.1000 remains. Now the price is in the middle of the range and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nikkei 225 Sets 21st Century High


As the chart shows, this morning the Nikkei 225 price exceeded 35,700, its highest level in decades.

The Nikkei 225 index reached its all-time high on December 30, 1989, at 38,957.44 points. This was against the backdrop of Japan's economic boom, which began in the 1980s and continued until the early 1990s.

Nikkei 225 growth is supported by lower inflation:
→ in Japan: the latest data showed an annual inflation rate of 2.8% — lower than a series of more than 10 previous values, all of which were above 3%. This reduces fears that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates and limit its current economic stimulus policies.
→ In the USA. Today, we remind you that at 16:30 GMT+3 inflation data in the USA will be published. It is also expected to show a slowdown in inflation. Therefore, market participants believe in a reduction in Fed rates, which can give impetus to the development of companies.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.