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Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast



Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support. News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today. At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region. The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.

However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions. Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region. Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday. From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954. On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 28, 2025

Yesterday, Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all automobiles and auto parts imported into the U.S. The tariff on vehicles will take effect on April 3, and the one on parts will begin on May 3. In response to this news, the yen weakened by 0.18%, and during the Asian session today, the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 fell by 2.14%. Following the Nikkei 225, we expect the USD/JPY pair to decline as an instrument that partially retains its status as a "safe haven" and due to capital returning to Japan amid the steady, albeit slow, retreat of investors from U.S. Treasury bonds.

On the daily chart, the price has nearly reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the target of 151.30. The Marlin oscillator is ready to reverse, and the price may return to support at 149.38. A consolidation below this level opens the path toward 145.91. A consolidation above 151.30 would only shift the current bearish scenario to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (152.70), where the Kijun line is approaching. Only a move above the Kijun line would create an alternative scenario with growth potential toward 154.56 as the initial target.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has created a broad, extended wedge, indicating a potential downward breakout. A drop below the Kijun line and the 150.16 level (the high from March 19) would confirm the breakout and aim for 149.38.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 31,2025

Market participants have again been gripped by fear due to Washington's intention to expand tariff duties by 20% on virtually all U.S. trading partners. On Friday, the S&P 500 stock index plunged by 1.97%, and now the equity market may take the lead in shaping risk sentiment. If that happens, the euro may not withstand the pressure and could follow a medium-term downward trend.

On the daily chart, the single currency continues to climb. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, and formally, the price is moving toward the target level of 1.0955. There is time for this move, as the key developments are expected on April 3, when the new tariffs take effect. Investors will then begin reassessing risks based on those measures.

On the four-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD line. This is a timely signal, as a consolidation above this resistance level would indicate that the bulls are ready to continue the rally toward 1.0955. The initial impulse came from the Marlin oscillator reversing off the zero line. The nearest support level is 1.0762. A break below it would open the way to the 1.0667 target. The direction of the S&P 500 index will influence the sustainability of the trend in either direction. For now, the situation remains uncertain.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 7, 2025

Last Friday, global markets continued to decline — albeit unevenly: the S&P 500 fell by 5.97%, oil by 7.41%, commodity currencies lost around 2% on average, and the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries dropped from 3.73% to 3.55%. However, the euro declined by only 0.80%, while the dollar rose by 0.58% against the yen. Today, the euro opened with a 68-pip downward gap, which it filled within an hour and fifteen minutes. Since this morning, all instruments — including S&P 500 futures — have been rising. We believe the market has primarily absorbed the short-term effects of China's newly imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods over the weekend.

On the daily chart, the euro has broken above the 1.0955 level. The Marlin oscillator is ready to resume growth after stabilizing in positive territory. A breakout above the nearest resistance at 1.1027 will open the way to the target range of 1.1110/50. From there, a move toward 1.1276 — the July 2023 peak — becomes likely, and at that point, a synchronized reversal with the equity market may occur, triggering a new wave of euro weakening. This would represent a typical crisis-style correlation.

The Marlin oscillator shows signs of a reversal from the neutral zero line on the four-hour chart. The price has consolidated above the 1.0955 level. We expect continued growth toward the first target at 1.1027, followed by an extended move into the 1.1110/50 target zone.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD – April 8, 2025

On Monday, the euro reached the 1.1027 target level but dropped below 1.0955. Nonetheless, the single currency achieved its primary goal, reaffirming its intent to resume growth. Currently, the price is attempting to rise above the 1.0955 resistance level. If successful, the move toward 1.1027 may continue with stronger support. The Marlin oscillator has turned upward without even reaching the boundary of the bearish territory.

The increasing distance between the price and the balance line (red moving average) is also worth noting, which suggests the past two days' price action was merely a correction within a medium-term upward trend. However, this growth may end relatively soon—around the 1.1276 level, the next target above the most recent high. This growth is occurring against the backdrop of a rising stock market correction. Once that correction ends, the currency market may also reverse, shifting back to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

The balance line has supported the price on the four-hour chart throughout the two-day correction. The Marlin oscillator briefly entered bearish territory, but if it resumes upward movement, this can be considered a false signal—another sign of further growth. The first target is 1.1027. A breakout above this level opens the way to the second target, 1.1110.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 9, 2025



By the end of Tuesday, the euro gained 45 pips, and during today's Pacific session, it has added roughly the same amount, approaching the target level of 1.1027. If resistance is broken, the price may target the 1.1110/50 range. However, a bearish trap could be lurking there. The reason is that commodities and stock indices continue to decline sharply, and the euro might not withstand the pressure. Yesterday, oil fell by 2.16%, and the S&P 500 by 1.57%.

A consolidation above the 1.1110/50 range, combined with a correctional rebound in equity markets and oil, could extend the euro's rise toward the 1.1276 target. An alternative scenario with a drop in the euro toward 1.0762 may also unfold, but for that, the pair needs to consolidate below the 1.0955 level.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has timely entered positive territory—indicating the price needs support to break through the 1.1027 resistance level. Once the price has consolidated above this level, it could cautiously advance to the target zone.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 10, 2025



Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs to 10% for 90 days for countries that did not retaliate to the initial U.S. tariffs (more than 75 in total). Meanwhile, tariffs on China were raised to 125%. The S&P 500 stock index surged by 9.51%, the U.S. dollar index dipped slightly by 0.08%, and the euro closed with a modest decline after previously forming a 130-point upper shadow during the session.

Thursday has begun with renewed growth. After breaking above resistance at 1.1027, we expect the price to move toward the 1.1110/50 range. The Marlin oscillator is slowly turning upward. On the H4 chart, the price briefly held above 1.1027 but then dipped below support at 1.0955. The bullish sentiment remains intact since there was no sustained close below this level.

We expect another firm move above 1.1027 and further growth toward the mentioned target range. The Marlin oscillator has weakened and is currently lagging. A consolidation above 1.1027 would help the oscillator recover and support the uptrend.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 14: The Dollar—From Leader to Laggard



The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady rally on Friday. At this point, there are no more questions about what is happening in the currency market—it's as simple as it gets. Donald Trump keeps raising the stakes, attempting to force (there's no better word) every country trading with the U.S. to do so strictly on American terms. Naturally, not everyone is thrilled with this turn of events, and the much-talked-about line of eager trade delegations to the White House has yet to appear. Speaking of Trump, he has never been shy with words—and this time is no different. According to the sitting U.S. President, all countries are ready to "lick (censored)" to get a trade deal with the U.S. It's worth noting that these are official statements by the President of the United States. In our view, this borders on surrealism and absurdity. Trump continues to insult, humiliate, and issue ultimatums while waging trade wars under the guise of being a peacemaker. The results of his actions are nothing short of comical. Trump wants to bring back jobs and factories to the U.S., grow the economy, reduce the trade deficit, and cut national debt. Currently, the outcomes are the exact opposite. Investors and traders are fleeing American assets, and many notable figures are leaving the U.S. The economy is beginning to slow, and now even the most conservative analysts are forecasting a recession. Inflation is declining for now, but no one doubts it will accelerate significantly soon. Jobs aren't rushing back to the U.S., and factories aren't planning large-scale relocations. On the contrary, companies are seeking ways to avoid Trump's tariffs—but we haven't heard of any major firm moving production back to the U.S. As for the national debt—thanks to Trump's policies, it's only likely to increase. Remember that government bonds are traditionally considered a stable and safe investment tool. U.S. Treasuries are now being sold off. As a result, bond yields are rising—and yield is effectively the cost of borrowing. In other words, the U.S. government is now forced to borrow at higher rates. We're talking about billions of dollars at increased interest rates. So we—and many experts—are left wondering: was it worth it? Perhaps there are brilliant economists in the Trump administration capable of modeling not only cash flows but also the reactions of half the world's countries to this kind of policy. But for now, the results are deeply disappointing. Some experts even believe the bond market may end up restraining Trump. In short, the more the bond market declines, the more the U.S. will pay in interest. This trend has started to worry Trump, which is likely why we're beginning to hear talk of "tariff amnesties."

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement USD/JPY Main Currency Pairs, Monday April 21, 2025.

With the appearance of Convergence between the price movement of the main currency pair USD/JPY with the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and the position of the EMA (100) which is above the price, in the near future USD/JPY has the potential to continue its weakening where as long as there is no further strengthening that breaks and closes above the level of 149.43, then USD/JPY will continue its weakening to the level of 139.59 if the volatility and momentum of the weakening support it, then 137.10 will be the next target that will be tested and aimed for.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 22. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound The price test at 1.3379 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. I also didn't see any other entry points in the market. Yesterday's lack of data from the UK helped the pound continue its upward movement. The same scenario might repeat today, as no major macroeconomic indicators are expected. However, it's unwise to rely solely on the absence of news. The currency market is unpredictable, and investor sentiment can shift due to external factors, including the US stance on trade tariffs. Don't forget that the pound is traded against the dollar, which is currently under heavy pressure from several angles: ongoing trade tariffs, inflationary risks, and Donald Trump's pressure on Jerome Powell to cut interest rates—something that, as you probably know, is negative for the dollar. For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3424 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3465 (thicker green line). Around 1.3465, I plan to exit the buys and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry point). Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3394 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A price rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3424 and 1.3465 can be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3394 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid drop. The key target for sellers will be 1.3349, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3424 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward 1.3394 and 1.3349 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart: The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought. The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold. The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely. The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

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