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Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast



Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support. News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today. At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region. The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.

However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions. Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region. Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday. From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954. On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 28, 2025

Yesterday, Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all automobiles and auto parts imported into the U.S. The tariff on vehicles will take effect on April 3, and the one on parts will begin on May 3. In response to this news, the yen weakened by 0.18%, and during the Asian session today, the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 fell by 2.14%. Following the Nikkei 225, we expect the USD/JPY pair to decline as an instrument that partially retains its status as a "safe haven" and due to capital returning to Japan amid the steady, albeit slow, retreat of investors from U.S. Treasury bonds.

On the daily chart, the price has nearly reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the target of 151.30. The Marlin oscillator is ready to reverse, and the price may return to support at 149.38. A consolidation below this level opens the path toward 145.91. A consolidation above 151.30 would only shift the current bearish scenario to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (152.70), where the Kijun line is approaching. Only a move above the Kijun line would create an alternative scenario with growth potential toward 154.56 as the initial target.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has created a broad, extended wedge, indicating a potential downward breakout. A drop below the Kijun line and the 150.16 level (the high from March 19) would confirm the breakout and aim for 149.38.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 31,2025

Market participants have again been gripped by fear due to Washington's intention to expand tariff duties by 20% on virtually all U.S. trading partners. On Friday, the S&P 500 stock index plunged by 1.97%, and now the equity market may take the lead in shaping risk sentiment. If that happens, the euro may not withstand the pressure and could follow a medium-term downward trend.

On the daily chart, the single currency continues to climb. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, and formally, the price is moving toward the target level of 1.0955. There is time for this move, as the key developments are expected on April 3, when the new tariffs take effect. Investors will then begin reassessing risks based on those measures.

On the four-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD line. This is a timely signal, as a consolidation above this resistance level would indicate that the bulls are ready to continue the rally toward 1.0955. The initial impulse came from the Marlin oscillator reversing off the zero line. The nearest support level is 1.0762. A break below it would open the way to the 1.0667 target. The direction of the S&P 500 index will influence the sustainability of the trend in either direction. For now, the situation remains uncertain.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 7, 2025

Last Friday, global markets continued to decline — albeit unevenly: the S&P 500 fell by 5.97%, oil by 7.41%, commodity currencies lost around 2% on average, and the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries dropped from 3.73% to 3.55%. However, the euro declined by only 0.80%, while the dollar rose by 0.58% against the yen. Today, the euro opened with a 68-pip downward gap, which it filled within an hour and fifteen minutes. Since this morning, all instruments — including S&P 500 futures — have been rising. We believe the market has primarily absorbed the short-term effects of China's newly imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods over the weekend.

On the daily chart, the euro has broken above the 1.0955 level. The Marlin oscillator is ready to resume growth after stabilizing in positive territory. A breakout above the nearest resistance at 1.1027 will open the way to the target range of 1.1110/50. From there, a move toward 1.1276 — the July 2023 peak — becomes likely, and at that point, a synchronized reversal with the equity market may occur, triggering a new wave of euro weakening. This would represent a typical crisis-style correlation.

The Marlin oscillator shows signs of a reversal from the neutral zero line on the four-hour chart. The price has consolidated above the 1.0955 level. We expect continued growth toward the first target at 1.1027, followed by an extended move into the 1.1110/50 target zone.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD – April 8, 2025

On Monday, the euro reached the 1.1027 target level but dropped below 1.0955. Nonetheless, the single currency achieved its primary goal, reaffirming its intent to resume growth. Currently, the price is attempting to rise above the 1.0955 resistance level. If successful, the move toward 1.1027 may continue with stronger support. The Marlin oscillator has turned upward without even reaching the boundary of the bearish territory.

The increasing distance between the price and the balance line (red moving average) is also worth noting, which suggests the past two days' price action was merely a correction within a medium-term upward trend. However, this growth may end relatively soon—around the 1.1276 level, the next target above the most recent high. This growth is occurring against the backdrop of a rising stock market correction. Once that correction ends, the currency market may also reverse, shifting back to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

The balance line has supported the price on the four-hour chart throughout the two-day correction. The Marlin oscillator briefly entered bearish territory, but if it resumes upward movement, this can be considered a false signal—another sign of further growth. The first target is 1.1027. A breakout above this level opens the way to the second target, 1.1110.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 9, 2025



By the end of Tuesday, the euro gained 45 pips, and during today's Pacific session, it has added roughly the same amount, approaching the target level of 1.1027. If resistance is broken, the price may target the 1.1110/50 range. However, a bearish trap could be lurking there. The reason is that commodities and stock indices continue to decline sharply, and the euro might not withstand the pressure. Yesterday, oil fell by 2.16%, and the S&P 500 by 1.57%.

A consolidation above the 1.1110/50 range, combined with a correctional rebound in equity markets and oil, could extend the euro's rise toward the 1.1276 target. An alternative scenario with a drop in the euro toward 1.0762 may also unfold, but for that, the pair needs to consolidate below the 1.0955 level.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has timely entered positive territory—indicating the price needs support to break through the 1.1027 resistance level. Once the price has consolidated above this level, it could cautiously advance to the target zone.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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