Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 13, 2024

The dollar successfully resists all attempts to push it below key technical levels (150.83, 152.16) in its battle against the yen. This resilience is partly due to the dollar's overall strengthening in the market and the time remaining before the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 19.

However, caution is warranted regarding the pair's current growth trajectory. After the price surpasses the intermediate resistance level of 152.16, the first target is 153.60. This level gains additional support from the balance line. At the same time, the Marlin oscillator could reach the boundary of its growth zone as the price approaches this level, potentially reversing from there. If the price manages to break through 153.60, the next intermediate level at 154.72 (the November 7 peak) comes into play. A reversal could occur from this point, forming a false breakout above 153.60. This move may coincide with the Bank of Japan meeting.

On the H4 chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned upward from the lower boundary of its extended consolidation range. Indicator lines also point towards growth, and the price has consolidated above the 152.16 level. The target at 153.60 is now open.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 16, 2024

On Friday, the euro rebounded from the technical support level at 1.0461, closing the day with a 37-pip gain. During today's Pacific session, the pair continues its upward movement..

The Marlin oscillator has returned to the growth zone, which could indicate that the previous downward move (highlighted by the gray rectangle) was a false dip. Even if a breakout above doesn't occur (target at 1.0667), the bullish target of 1.0598 has been established. The euro will likely remain within the 1.0461–1.0598 range until the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has also shifted into the growing trend zone. If the price breaks above the MACD line resistance at 1.0538, the 1.0598 level will become the active target.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 17, 2024

The euro continues its slow technical upward movement within the trading range of 1.0461–1.0598, awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The Marlin oscillator has firmly entered positive territory, suggesting that the single currency's upward movement may continue today.

However, if the price reverses following the Fed meeting, it does not necessarily have to reach the 1.0598 resistance level, as the overall trend remains bearish. The balance line (red moving average) may act as an insurmountable obstacle, similar to what occurred on December 6 (as indicated by the arrow).

On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising below the MACD line (1.0543). Consolidation above 1.0543 will increase the probability of testing 1.0598. The price appears to be narrowing its consolidation range, approximately 1.0461–1.0543.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for December 18, 2024

On Tuesday, the British pound rose by 27 pips, closing the day below the 1.2708 resistance level after briefly breaching it during the session. Today, the pound starts slightly weakening as the balance line reinforces the reached level. Today's focus will be on the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 0.25%, with consideration for the Bank of England's expected decision to maintain rates tomorrow.

From a purely technical standpoint, the pound has all the conditions for a potential move into the 1.2816/47 range, even as a false breakout against the market trend, with a subsequent return below the 1.2616 level if the market adopts a downward direction. However, the current sentiment for the pound appears slightly bearish, as the Marlin oscillator hints at a reversal.

On the H4 chart, the price did not manage to break above the balance line resistance. There was no consolidation above the 1.2708 level. Marlin is moving in tandem with the price. Without breaking the reversal setup, the price may test the MACD line resistance at 1.2750. A break above the MACD line would open the target range of 1.2816/47.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 19, 2024

At yesterday's FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the rate by the anticipated 0.25%. However, the FOMC projected only two rate cuts for the upcoming year, compared to the market's expectation of three. This led the euro to fall by 139 pips. Yet, the most notable event of the day was the 2.95% drop in the S&P 500. The index erased three weeks of gains in a single day. The technical picture indicates a crisis scenario, as we mentioned last week in the analysis titled "The U.S. Stock Market Ends the 'Trump Rally' on December 10", suggesting further developments in this direction.

On the daily chart, the euro has reached the 1.0350 target level. As of Thursday morning, the price is undergoing a slight correction. After this correction, we expect the price to move below this level and continue its decline toward the next target at 1.0250. If a divergence forms at this level, a deeper correction could follow. If not, further decline toward 1.0135 is possible.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator begins easing out of the oversold zone, signaling a minor recovery. Once the market stabilizes, we anticipate another attempt to break the 1.0350 support, followed by a move toward 1.0250.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 23, 2024


On Friday, the euro completed its correction from the December 17-18 price decline. Assuming that the correction is incomplete, a move above 1.0461 would invalidate investors' plans regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The Marlin oscillator also signals the end of the correction, as it begins to turn downward without reaching the growth territory boundary. A gradual decline to the support level at 1.0250 appears logical. Considering the thinning market ahead of the Catholic holidays, strong orders may already be absent at the 1.0350 level.

The four-hour chart shows the price's growth from the 1.0350 support occurred below the balance line (red moving average). The Marlin oscillator moved above the zero line, but this could be a false move, confirming a reversal toward a new low at 1.0250.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 30, 2024

As the New Year approaches, the currency market remains relatively stable, although there are signs of a potential strong dollar rally across all financial markets. One key indicator is the recent decline in the stock market; on Friday, the S&P 500 fell by 1.11%. We anticipate a significant drop in stock indices, which is likely to affect counter-dollar currencies as well.

Today, Japan's Manufacturing PMI showed an increase from 49.0 to 49.6 in December's estimate, suggesting a high likelihood that today's Chicago PMI will also reflect growth (expected 42.7 compared to November's 40.2). Given this, a rise in the euro seems unlikely. Additionally, the EUR/USD pair is currently facing strong technical resistance at 1.0461. The Marlin oscillator has reached the zero line and is now turning downward, indicating that a break below the 1.0350 support level is expected in the early days of January.

On the H4 chart, the price has reached the MACD line and is also turning downward, signaling ongoing preparations for a downward breakout when conditions become favorable. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating just above the threshold of the downtrend territory. We do not foresee significant movement today or tomorrow.


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