Forecasting Indicators

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the source

The indicator is based on several methods that can be chosen by the Method input variable :

Method 1: Fourier's extrapolation; the frequencies are calculated using the Quinn-Fernandes Algorithm
Method 2: Autocorrelation Method
Method 3: Weighted Burg Method
Method 4: Burg Method with Helme-Nikias weighting function
Method 5: Itakura-Saito (geometric) method
Method 6: Modified covariance method

Methods 2-6 are the methods of linear prediction. The linear prediction is based on finding the future values as the linear functions of the past values. Assume that we have a number of prices x[0]..x[n-1] where the higher index is compliant with the recent price. The prediction of the future price x[n] is calculated as

x[n] = -Sum(a[i]*x[n-i], i=1..p)

where a[i=1..p] - coefficients of the model, p - order of the model. The listed methods 2-6 find the coefficients a[] by decreasing the mean-root-square error on the training last n-p bars. Of course, we can reach the zero error of prediction if we directly solve the set of equations mentioned above with n=2*p by the Levinson-Durbin method. Such method of prediction is called Prony Method. Its disadvantage is the instability during the prediction of the future values of the series. That's way this method has not been included.


The other input parameters are :

LastBar - the number of the last bar in the past data
PastBars - the number of past bars used for the prediction of the future values
LPOrder - the order of the linear model as a fraction from the number of the past bars (0..1)
FutBars - the number of future bars in the prediction
HarmNo - the maximum number of frequencies for the Method 1 (0 means all frequencies)
FreqTOL - the imprecision of the frequeincies calculation for the Method 1 (if it is >0.001 it can't converge)
BurgWin - the number of the weighting function for the Method 2 (0=Rectangular 1=Hamming 2=Parabolic)
The indicator draws two lines: the blue line shows the prices of the model on the training bars, the red line shows the predicted future prices.

Just next indicator related to the book "The New Science of Technical Analysis" by Thomas R. Demark - Forecasting of Price Ranges - indicator for MetaTrader 4:

The othere forecasting indicator: Bubbles&Drops - indicator for MetaTrader 4

- historyDeep=100; bars in history to be used
- future=50; How many bars to predict (I use 5 instead of 50 for example).

Originally Posted by newdigital

The othere forecasting indicator: Bubbles&Drops - indicator for MetaTrader 4

- historyDeep=100; bars in history to be used
- future=50; How many bars to predict (I use 5 instead of 50 for example).

Same indicator for Metatrader 5 is here

And this is the EA based on WmiFor forecasting indicator (indicator was posted somewhere on this thread) - name of the EA: Exp_-_ofdexffgl5z1htba_6ggn_WmiFor30_DTW (for MT4).

I did not try this EA so no idea how it works (with bugs or not ...).

JoeChalhoub FX Forecaster - indicator for MetaTrader 4

According to the coder - this indicator can foresee the price movement:

• I would trade only when the pink bar is visible.
• The best time to get in would be when the pink bar shows up (or down) for the very first time. A good exit point would be when the Pink bar hides behind the black bar (again as soon as this happens, I would exit)
• The Black bar more or less shows the trend - if it is above the zero line, the trend is up and vice versa.
• If the Black bar points up, and if the Pink Bar has just shown UP for the first time, it would be a great time to enter a long trade. And as soon as this Pink Bar goes behind the black bar (hides), I would exit the trade. Same logic would apply on the opposite side for a short trade.

Originally Posted by newdigital

JoeChalhoub FX Forecaster - indicator for MetaTrader 4

According to the coder - this indicator can foresee the price movement:

• I would trade only when the pink bar is visible.
• The best time to get in would be when the pink bar shows up (or down) for the very first time. A good exit point would be when the Pink bar hides behind the black bar (again as soon as this happens, I would exit)
• The Black bar more or less shows the trend - if it is above the zero line, the trend is up and vice versa.
• If the Black bar points up, and if the Pink Bar has just shown UP for the first time, it would be a great time to enter a long trade. And as soon as this Pink Bar goes behind the black bar (hides), I would exit the trade. Same logic would apply on the opposite side for a short trade.

Well, its changing its plotting in the past...i did back testing and i found different results...in my live graph there was exit but in backtesting exit was 2 candles late so that means in live graph it has adjusted the exit on right candle...so it is difficult to predict the results by checking the graph...though indicator is very good but we need to see if we can fix this problem..

thanks

Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

"This indicator uses the Quinn-Fernandes algorithm to find the harmonic frequencies. It fits harmonics of the trigonometric series one by one until the specified total number of harmonics H is reached. After fitting a new harmonic, the coded algorithm computes the residue between the updated model and the real values and fits a new harmonic to the residue."

The interesting update of this indicator was made by nikolay7ko (updated indicator is attached). This updated version allows us to check the forecasts by doing the following:

• attach indicator to the chart;
• press Ctrl key on keyboard;
• move mouse over the price to select the bars for starting the forecasts.

This updated version helps to disillusion related to those kind of the price forecasting sorry ...

thanks so much for all the wonderful indicator mate...will have fun trying them...
also i hope u don't mind i relay ur post to some other forum to share

thanks again