Forecasting Indicators

The reaction in the FX markets to last Thursday’s comments by the ECB President was odd: she was dovish, yet the Euro climbed. That suggests more near-term upside for the currency.

more...

Universal Regression Model for Market Price Prediction

The market price is formed out of a stable balance between demand and supply which, in turn, depend on a variety of economic, political and psychological factors that are difficult to be directly considered due to differences in nature as well as causes of their influence.

----------------

Universal regression model for market price prediction (Part 2): Natural, technological and social transient functions

As it turns out, the transient functions /1/ meant to analyze the material balance of the trading process are able to adequately describe other processes, both dynamic and static, in all areas of human life. The theory is based on three functions with three parameters. One of them (current C function) is differential, while two others are integral forms of the Gamma function distribution density. The past function P is obtained from C by integrating it from 0 to infinity with the n+1 parameter, while the future function F is used with the n parameter.

Nokia’s most recent Q1 ’22 earnings saw revenue rise to $5.66 billion, up from $5.38 billion in Q1 ’21.

Weekly chart by ranging below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on wide ranging within 4.58 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing with 4.51 target to re-enter and 5.41/5.60 resistance levels for the primary bullish reversal to be started.

more...

The Euro, along with a range of other majors, is looking fairly helpless in the face of a rampant US dollar with parity – EUR/USD 1.000 - unlikely to hold the latest sell-off. The daily price is breaking support level at 1.007 to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing with 0.995 possible target. Alternatively, the price will be bounced from the next dynamic support level to above for the bear matket rally to be started.

more...

The article Implementing an ARIMA training algorithm in MQL5, describes the CArima class for building ARIMA models. Although it is technically possible to use the class as it is to apply a model and make predictions, it is not intuitive. In this article we will address this shortcomming and extend the class to enable easier to use methods for applying models to make predictions. We will discuss some of the complications related to implementing predictions as well as some new features added to the class. To conclude we will use the complete class to build a model , use it to predict forex prices by applying it to an expert advisor and indicator.

more...

Although many may think that it would be better to release a series of articles on the topic of artificial intelligence, I cannot imagine how this could be done. Most people have no idea about the true purpose of neural networks and, accordingly, about the so-called artificial intelligence.

So, we will not go into this topic in detail here. Instead, we will focus on other aspects.

more...

In the previous article Neural Network in Practice: Secant Line, we began to discuss applied mathematics in practice. However, this was only a short and quick introduction to the topic. We have seen that the basic mathematical operation to be used is the trigonometric function. And, contrary to what many think, this is not a tangent function but a secant function. Although this may all seem quite confusing at first, you will soon find that everything is much simpler than it seems. Unlike many people who only create a lot of confusion in the mathematical environment, here everything develops completely naturally.

more...

In the previous article "Neural Network in Practice: Least Squares", we looked at how, in very simple cases, we can find an equation that best describes the data set we are using. The equation that was formed in this system was very simple, it used only one variable. We've already shown how to do the calculation, so we'll get straight to the point here. This is because the mathematics used to create an equation based on the values available in the database requires significant knowledge of analytical mathematics and algebraic computation. In addition to this, of course, it is necessary to know what type of data is in the database we are using.

more...