Determining Market Condition

Hi NewDigital,

Very interesting video. Can you please guide how to plot/how can I get this EW plotting with such a detailing?

Thanks
jag

Originally Posted by jagadish123

Hi NewDigital,

Very interesting video. Can you please guide how to plot/how can I get this EW plotting with such a detailing?

Thanks
jag

As I see - it is not Metatrader, and some lines were manually drawing.

This is very famous pattern namely Sign of the Horns

Where the Gold Price Will Eventually Hit Bottom

Do not buy gold right now. Just don’t do it!

The Midas metal has turned to fool’s gold. It’s sunk in the black night of a deep bear market — and it’s about to plunge even deeper.
Over the next several weeks, the gold price could threaten lows not seen since 2009, when it hovered around the $1,000 mark. And if you’re thinking gold is a dirt-cheap bargain right now, think again…

Word to the wise: don’t bet on gold. If you already have, get out now.

Look, I’m going to let you in on a little secret here: Gold is a commodity that trades in cycles, just like any other asset. And the evidence tells me it’s heading down right now. If there’s one thing I want to drill into that head of yours, it’s that you can’t trade on your emotions. You’ll go broke. Hey, I also love coffee. But if I think the price of coffee is heading down, I’m betting against it. Does that mean I hate coffee? Are you out of your gourd?

So if you’re a gold bug, don’t shoot, man. I’m just the messenger.
Here’s how gold’s bear market is unfolding…

The first phase of gold’s death march began 18 months ago. It was pushing $1,600 in mid-April, and then WHAM — the bottom fell out. A vicious $200 drop knocked it down to about $1,385 an ounce in just two days. Longtime gold investors who’d enjoyed a decade of sunny skies were like, ‘Dude, what the @#$% just happened?’ Remember that?

I sure do. And I saw the writing on the wall. I wrote the following words in the early morning hours of April 17, 2013, when the gold guys thought it was just an isolated squall that would soon pass:
“I can’t make this any clearer: You shouldn’t even consider trying to buy gold right now.”
You know the rest of the story. It’s been raining on the yellow stuff ever since. It now sits at $1,169. That’s about $450 off its April 2013 high.

And as I type, we’re seeing the same nasty weather forming in the charts as we saw 18 months ago. It feels like last April all over again.
So, this morning… as gold sits below $1,170 an ounce for the first time since 2010… I’m gonna say it again — only louder…

Whether you’re the CEO of a multinational or a sole proprietor, it pays to have a sense of where the opportunities lie and the dangers lurk in 2015. That’s what this special issue is about. In the following pages, we offer a detailed look at key people, industries, and regions, along with the most important emerging trends. This introduction focuses on the macroeconomic picture—in other words, the conditions that will help or hinder all you strivers in 2015.

The map gives a snapshot of what’s ahead, based on the latest IMF forecast. South America is a mess, with Argentina and Venezuela leading the losers’ parade and Brazil not far behind. Russia and Western Europe are weak. All three economies of North America are looking pretty solid. The strongest growth is projected to be in South and East Asia as well as much of Africa, which is starting from a low base. Then there’s Greenland, which is  …  large.

That’s led the IMF to reduce its forecast for 2015 global growth to 3.2 percent. It projects 3.1 percent growth for the U.S. next year, just 1.3 percent in the euro area, and 0.8 percent for Japan. China’s projected 7.1 percent growth, high compared with other nations’, would be the country’s lowest in 15 years. China isn’t geared for such a slowdown: Indebted investors such as property developers could default on a large scale if expansion comes in much below their expectations. The disparity in growth rates among the big four economies—the U.S., China, Japan, and the euro zone—was what Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew was referring to in October when he told Bloomberg, “You need all four wheels to be moving, or it isn’t going to be a good ride.”

Some things about 2015 are known, such as the continued warming of the planet. Others are unimportant, like who wins the Super Bowl on Feb. 1 in Phoenix. (Sorry, football fans.) Keep an eye on things that are unknown and important: Will Russia’s and China’s clashes with their neighbors escalate into armed conflict? Will the Ebola epidemic break out of West Africa on a large scale? Will China snuff out Hong Kong’s democracy movement? Will British elections in May increase pressure on the United Kingdom to drop out of the European Union? Will one of the conflicts in the Middle East boil over? Any one of those could make 2015 a very ugly year.

The oil boom is a victory for drilling technology, much of which was invented in the U.S. and is being deployed worldwide. That’s an example of an important theme for 2015: Business investment spurred by innovation may rescue the world from its protracted slump. Consumers are still having a hard time paying down debt because their inflation-adjusted incomes have fallen since the 2007-09 recession. Business is in a better position to lead the recovery. Companies are sitting on record amounts of cash because, with demand weak, they don’t feel any pressure to update their plants, equipment, and software. Great new technologies could set off a burst of capital spending by convincing CEOs they must have the next new thing to get ahead of the competition or avoid falling behind it.

For the U.S. economy, the most critical unknown is whether 2015 will be the year the Federal Reserve finally begins to raise the federal funds rate, which it has locked at zero to 0.25 percent since the end of 2008. The lowest funds rate in history was perceived as an emergency measure during the financial crisis, but the economy still hasn’t shown that it can thrive without it. Critics say that cheap money is inflating asset bubbles and that the unemployment rate—5.9 percent in September—is as low as it can get without generating dangerous wage inflation.

The median forecast of the members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is for the funds rate to reach 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent by the end of 2015. Traders in the futures market are skeptical. They’re collectively betting that the funds rate will be only about 0.5 percent by then. That’s either a vote of no confidence in the U.S. economic recovery or a sign that traders think Fed Chair Janet Yellen is a dove who will keep rates low even after the economy gains strength, or maybe a little of both.

China is suffering its own brand of deflation. Wholesale prices have fallen every month since April 2012. Although President Xi Jinping has vowed to promote consumer-led growth, which would please the public by raising living standards, his efforts have fallen short. Business investment accounted for 49 percent of GDP last year, up from 35 percent in 2000, according to World Bank data. So much spending on plants and equipment leads to excess production capacity, which encourages price slashing that destroys profitability.


the source

Two market condition indicators were fixed/updated today:

AllAbsoluteStrength_v2.3 600+ indicator is on this post. This is improved indicator with 3-MACD feature added. This is fixed and updated AllAbsoluteStrength indicator. The version works with Metatrader 4 build 600 and above.

AllAbsoluteMarket_v2.2 600+ indicator is on this post. This is fixed and updated AllAbsoluteMarket indicator with ability to calculate the MACD mode (MathMode = 3). The version works with Metatrader 4 build 600 and above.

UniAbsoluteMarket indicator with ability to find 8 market conditions


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UniAbsoluteMarket_v2 600+ indicator was created for Premium Trading Forum. This indicator is having ability to find 8 market conditions: Bull Market, Bear Market, Correction, Bear Rally, Choppy Market, Sideways Market, Overbought Market and Oversold Market.

The version is working for MT4 build 600 and above

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You need to subscribe to Premium Trading Forum to read and to download.

I just found those 2 indicators inside my PC so I am uploading them.
If you need many support/resistance lines so you can use it:

Mark Minervini makes an interesting point: the market is like poker in that the most important element of success is knowing which game to sit in on. All too often, I find that traders in a slump focus on the hold 'em versus fold 'em choices of trading when, in fact, they're sitting at the wrong table.

How can we sit at the wrong trading table? Several variations of this challenge immediately come to mind:

* You're a momentum trader and you're trading a slow, low volatility market;
* You're a trend trader and you're trading a choppy, range market;
* You're a research-oriented big picture trader and you're getting caught up in short-term price action;
* You're a skilled short-term trader and you're locked in a longer-term directional market view;
* You're a contrarian fader and you're getting run over in high volume directional flows;
* You're an independent thinker, but you're distracted and influenced by the views of others;
* You're a trader who reads others well at the table, but you're isolated from other traders;

I've seen people make money in markets two ways: by investing and by trading. Investing means generating a big picture view and riding out short term noise en route to seeing that view materialize. Investors are top-down thinkers: they're analytical and their skill lies in putting pieces of research together to form a picture that others haven't yet seen. Traders are bottom-up thinkers: they recognize patterns as they form and act on them quickly. Where the investor thinks deeply about opportunity over time, the trader thinks broadly about what's happening in markets at a given time.

A great way to lose money is to not understand yourself and how you're wired cognitively. If you're a deep thinker, you'll lose money sitting at the trading table. If you're a fast thinker, you'll lose money dabbling with investment theses. The route to success is to be who you are when you're functioning at your best. Working on improving your discipline, controlling your emotions, and following your process is not helpful if you're sitting at the wrong table to begin with.

the source

This is easy to determin the market condition using 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA. For example, 200 period SMA is dividing/separating the chart on bearish/downtrend and bullish/uptrend market condition. Means: we can determin the primary trend using 200 period of SMA.

There is the secondary trend within the primary one: flat, ranging, correction (local downtrend within the primary bullish), market rally (local uptrend within the primary bearish), and more.

Indicator Maksigen and template are attached.

So, we can determing this secondary trend using 100 period SMA looking at the location of 200 period SMA and the price.