Weekly Outlook: 2014, June 29 - July 06

Forex - Weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The dollar ended the week lower against a basket of major currencies on Friday as upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data failed to dispel concerns over the outlook for the wider economic recovery.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data earlier in the week showed that U.S. first quarter growth was revised sharply lower.

The dollar weakened across the board after the Commerce Department said Wednesday that U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.08 late Friday, down 0.23%.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3649, up 0.28%. For the week, the pair added 0.43%. USD/JPY was down 0.30% to 101.41 late Friday, extending the week’s losses to 0.66%.

The yen was boosted after stronger-than-forecast data on Japanese retail sales for May curbed expectations for additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.

The euro was flat against the yen late Friday, with EUR/JPY at 138.45, and ended the week down 0.22%.

The pound remained supported above the 1.70 level against the dollar on Friday after data confirmed that the U.K. economy expanded 0.8% in the first three months of 2014. The annual rate of growth was revised to 3.0% from 3.1%.

GBP/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.7036, up slightly from 1.7024 late Thursday.

Elsewhere Friday, the Canadian dollar rose to almost six-month highs against the U.S. dollar, building on gains in recent sessions after strong inflation data earlier this month eased concerns over the subdued inflation outlook.

USD/CAD settled at 1.0662, the lowest level since January 7. For the week, the pair tumbled 0.85%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

• New Zealand is to produce private sector data on business confidence, as well as a report on building consents
• Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.
• The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Meanwhile, Germany is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals.
• Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.
• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.
• China is to release official data on manufacturing activity, as well as the final reading of the HSBC manufacturing index.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
• The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
• Switzerland is to release its SVME manufacturing index.
• Markets in Canada will remain closed for the Canada Day holiday.
• Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• Australia is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• The U.K. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation, as well as official data on construction activity.
• In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• Australia is to publish data on building approvals and retail sales. RBA Governor Glen Stevens is to speak at an event in Hobart.
• China is to release official data on service sector activity and the HSBC report on service sector growth.
• The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, while Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity. The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
• The U.K. is also to release data on service sector expansion.
• Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish data on the trade balance, and the U.S. is also to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule, before the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Germany is to publish data on factory orders. Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The dollar fell to one-month lows against the firmer yen on Friday as upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data failed to bolster the outlook for the wider recovery after data earlier in the week showed that first quarter growth was revised down sharply.

USD/JPY touched lows of 101.32 on Friday, the weakest since May 21, and was last at 101.41, down 0.30%. For the week, the pair lost 0.66%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.00 and resistance at 101.72, Friday’s high.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more sharply than expected in the first quarter of 2014.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

Demand for the yen was boosted on Friday after stronger-than-forecast data on Japanese retail sales for May curbed expectations for additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.08 late Friday, down 0.23%.

The euro was flat against the yen late Friday, with EUR/JPY at 138.45, and ended the week down 0.22%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

• Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.
• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.
• In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

USD/CHF weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The dollar fell to five-week lows against the Swiss franc on Friday, despite improved U.S. consumer sentiment data after poor economic reports earlier in the week undermined the outlook for the broader recovery.

USD/CHF was down 0.32% to 0.8906 late Friday, the lowest level since May 21. The pair ended the week with losses of 0.55%.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8885 and resistance at 0.8937, Friday’s high.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more sharply than expected in the first three months of 2014.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released one day early on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• Switzerland is to release its SVME manufacturing index.
• In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The Canadian dollar rose to almost six-month highs against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after a strong inflation report the previous Friday eased concerns over the subdued inflation outlook.

USD/CAD was down 0.24% to 1.0662 late Friday, the lowest level since January 7. For the week, the pair tumbled 0.85%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0600 and resistance at 1.0695, Friday’s high.

Demand for the Canadian dollar continued to be underpinned after stronger-than-expected inflation data earlier this month raised expectations that the Bank of Canada could shift away from its neutral stance on monetary policy.

In the U.S., a report on Friday showed that consumer sentiment was revised higher this month, but the data did little to reassure investors after data earlier in the week showed that the economy contracted more sharply than initially estimated in the first quarter.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The greenback remained under pressure after the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

Another report on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released one day early on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market. Canada’s monthly GDP report on Monday will also be in focus.

Monday, June 30

• Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.
• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• Markets in Canada will remain closed for the Canada Day holiday.
• The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• Both Canada and the U.S. are to publish data on their respective trade balances and the U.S. is also to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
• In addition, the U.S. is to release what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule, before the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report on service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record-low levels for a considerable time.

AUD/USD hit 0.9444 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since April 10, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9423 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.09% for the day and 0.35% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9353, the low from June 25 and resistance at 0.9444, the high from June 23.

Upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data released Friday failed to dispel concerns over the outlook for the wider economic recovery.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data earlier in the week showed that U.S. first quarter growth was revised sharply lower.

The dollar weakened broadly after the Commerce Department said Wednesday that the U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
• Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• Australia is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• Australia is to publish data on building approvals and retail sales. RBA Governor Glen Stevens is to speak at an event in Hobart.
• The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday

.

NZD/USD weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session close to a 34-month high against its U.S. counterpart, as upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data failed to dispel concerns over the outlook for the wider economic recovery.

NZD/USD hit 0.8792 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since August 1, 2011, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8778 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.03% for the day but 0.93% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8733, the low from June 26 and resistance at 0.8792, the high from June 26.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data earlier in the week showed that U.S. first quarter growth was revised sharply lower.

The dollar weakened across the board after the Commerce Department said Wednesday that U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, trade data released Friday showed that New Zealand's trade surplus narrowed to NZ$285 million last month, from NZ$498 million in May. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to narrow to NZ$250 million in June.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released one day early on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market.

Monday, June 30

• New Zealand is to produce private sector data on business confidence, as well as a report on building consents.
• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

GBP/USD weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The pound remained supported above the 1.70 level against the dollar on Friday, trading within striking distance of six-year highs amid heightened expectations for a U.K. rate hike before the end of the year.

GBP/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.7036, up slightly from 1.7024 late Thursday. The pair touched a high of 1.7062 on June 19, the strongest level since October 2008.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.6969, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.7062.

Data on Friday confirmed that the U.K. economy expanded by 0.8% in the first three months of 2014. The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.0% in the first quarter, the fastest since 2007.

Earlier Friday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated that rates were unlikely to return to their pre-crisis levels of 5%, but instead could be expected to rise to around 2.5% by the first quarter of 2017.

The BoE announced a new affordability test on banks and a cap on home loans on Thursday, in a bid to prevent the housing market from destabilizing the U.K. economy.

Demand for sterling continued to be underpinned as the new measures did little to alter expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The dollar remained broadly weaker after a report on Friday showing that consumer sentiment was revised higher this month did little to reassure investors about the outlook for the wider recovery.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The greenback remained under pressure after the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

Another report on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released one day early on Thursday, for further indications on the strength of the labor market. U.K. data on service sector activity will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

• The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals.
• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• The U.K. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation, as well as data on construction activity.
• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, as well as data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• The U.K. is to release data on service sector expansion.
• The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
• The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

The euro moved higher against the broadly weaker dollar on Friday as concerns over the outlook for U.S. economic growth continued to weigh, despite a report showing that U.S. consumer sentiment improved this month.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3649, up 0.28%. For the week, the pair added 0.43%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3600 and resistance at 1.3670.

The dollar remained lower after data on Friday showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data earlier in the week showed that U.S. first quarter growth was revised sharply lower.

The dollar weakened across the board after the Commerce Department said Wednesday that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

The euro was flat against the yen late Friday, with EUR/JPY at 138.45, and ended the week down 0.22%.

The yen was boosted after stronger-than-forecast data on Japanese retail sales for May curbed expectations for additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

• The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Meanwhile, Germany is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

• The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
• Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

• In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, as well as data on factory orders.
• Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

• The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, while Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity. The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
• The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
• The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.
• Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

• Germany is to publish data on factory orders.
• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

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