Weekly Outlook: 2014, June 15 - 22

USD/JPY forecast for the week of June 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell during the majority of the week, testing the 102 level several times. That being the case, the market looks like it wants to continue going sideways as it has been for some time now. In fact, since the beginning of the year, this market has been in a fairly tight range. With that type of range, we feel that the market will continue to be difficult to be involved in for longer-term traders, and as a result we believe that the market will be able to be but until we get above the 103 level on at least a daily candle.

USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the week, as you can see on the chart. This market seems to find plenty of support near the 1.08 handle, so we feel that the market is supportive enough that we can continue to buy on dips and believe that the market will ultimately be bullish enough to continue on to the 1.12 level or so. With this, we also believe that the uptrend line that we have seen for some time now is going to continue to push the market higher as well. Pullbacks should be thought of as value.

NZD/USD forecast for the week of June 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair rose during the course of the week, testing the 0.87 level for resistance. That level did in fact hold, but what is most interesting is the fact that the Friday session ended up forming a hammer, suggesting that the market is trying to build up enough momentum to breakout finally, which is something that we do fully anticipate seeing. Pullbacks in this general vicinity should be buying opportunities, and as a result we are “buy only” at this moment time. Selling certainly can’t be done in a very bullish market like this.

GBP/USD forecast for the week of June 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair rose during the course of the week, slamming into the 1.70 handle. This area offered resistance again, and now as a result we closed just below it. However, if we can get above the 1.70 level, we feel that this market goes much, much higher. In fact, the market should head to the 1.75 level if we get clear that area, making it a very bullish market to be in. We have no interest in selling this market, and believe that short-term pullbacks will continue to bring in buyers

EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 16, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair spent most of the week falling, and tested the 1.35 level for support. Because of this, we think that the area will be targeted, and if we can break below there on a daily close, this market could fall apart. The Euro would fall to the 1.33 level as far as we can tell, and would be a sell. However, this area has been fairly resilient so we are quite ready to start selling yet. The bounce could happen, and we could stay within the fairly tight range that we have been in for the last month.

Forex - Weekly outlook: June 16 - 20

The dollar ended Friday’s session flat against a basket of other major currencies as escalating tensions in Iraq underpinned safe haven demand for the greenback, offsetting an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence.

Concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq hit market sentiment on Friday, after insurgents took control of the Iraqi cities Mosul and Tikrit, fuelling fears over the impact of reduced oil supply on global growth.

The escalating violence in Iraq overshadowed a report showing that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was flat at 80.75 late Friday.

The dollar was higher against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.28% to 101.99 late Friday. For the week, the pair was down 0.49%.

The euro edged lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD dipping 0.08% to 1.3541 at the close, not far from the four-month trough of 1.3502 reached on June 5. For the week, the pair lost 0.38%.

The single currency has weakened broadly since the European Central Bank cut rates to record lows earlier this month, in order to combat the threat of persistently low inflation in the euro area.

Elsewhere, the pound ended the week close to five year highs against the dollar after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Thursday that U.K. interest rates could rise sooner than investors expect.

GBP/USD was up 0.24% to 1.6968 late Friday, after rising as high as 1.6990 earlier in the session, the most in almost five years. The pair ended the week with gains of 0.99%.

Sterling rose to one-and-a-half year highs against the broadly weaker euro, with EUR/GBP down 0.30% to 0.7981 late Friday, extending the week’s losses to 1.32%.

The New Zealand dollar turned lower on Friday amid increased safe haven demand, with NZD/USD slipping 0.26% to 0.8663.

The pair rallied to a one month high of 0.8699 Thursday after the Reserve Bank raised its benchmark interest rate to a five-year high of 3.25% and indicated that borrowing costs would rise again as strong economic growth fuels inflation pressures.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while Monday’s preliminary report on euro zone inflation will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 16

• The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
• Canada is to publish a report on foreign securities purchases.
• The U.S. is to produce data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Empire State.

Tuesday, June 17

• The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
• Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation, while the U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation.
• The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
• Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce data on housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.

Wednesday, June 18

• New Zealand is to release data on the current account, while Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.
• The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Japan is also to release data on the trade balance.
• The BoE is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.
• The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.
• Canada is to produce data on wholesale sales.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Thursday, June 19

• New Zealand is to publish data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
• The Swiss National Bank is to announce its libor rate. The bank is also to publish its quarterly monetary policy assessment and hold a press conference.
• The U.K. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The Eurogroup of euro area finance ministers are to hold meeting in Brussels.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, June 20

• Germany is to publish data on producer price inflation.
• BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.
• The euro zone is to release data on the current account, while the euro area’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council is to hold meetings in Brussels.
• The U.K. is to release data on public sector net borrowing.
• Canada is to round up the week with data on consumer inflation and retail sales.

USD/CHF weekly outlook: June 16 - 20

The dollar pushed higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as safe haven demand was underpinned by concerns over the escalating conflict in Iraq, supporting the greenback.

USD/CHF was up 0.17% to 0.9000 late Friday from 0.8982 on Thursday. For the week, the pair rose 0.32%.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8950 and resistance at 0.9040.

Concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq hit market sentiment on Friday, amid fears over the impact of reduced oil supply on global growth.

The dollar shrugged off a report showing that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.

The report came a day after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in May, but the previous month was revised higher.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May, falling short of expectations for a 0.6% gain. However, retail sales for April were revised up to a 0.5% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.1%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was flat at 80.75 late Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while Thursday’s rate statement by the Swiss National Bank will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, June 16

• The U.S. is to produce data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Empire State.

Tuesday, June 17

• Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.
• Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce data on housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.

Wednesday, June 18

• The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Thursday, June 19

• The SNB is to announce its libor rate. The bank is also to publish its quarterly monetary policy assessment and hold a press conference.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 16 - 20

The U.S. dollar moved higher against the yen on Friday as concerns over escalating violence in Iraq fuelled safe haven demand while heightened expectations for more stimulus from the Bank of Japan weighed on the yen.

USD/JPY was up 0.28% to 101.99 late Friday from 101.59 on Thursday. For the week, the pair was down 0.49%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.59, Thursday’s low and resistance at 102.50.

Concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq hit market sentiment on Friday, amid fears over the impact of reduced oil supply on global growth.

The escalating violence in Iraq overshadowed a report showing that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.

Earlier Friday, the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and indicated that the economy was on course to meet its inflation target next year without additional monetary easing.

The central bank said the economy was showing signs of having weathered a sales tax increase that came into effect on April 1 and added that its expected a gentle recovery to continue.

Analysts remain concerned that a slowdown in growth in the second quarter could prompt additional easing by the BoJ.

Elsewhere, the euro edged higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY rising 0.26% to 138.18, not far from the four month low of 137.71 struck in the previous session. For the week, the pair lost 0.81%.

The single currency has weakened broadly since the European Central Bank cut rates to record lows earlier this month, in order to combat the threat of persistently low inflation in the euro area.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while a speech by BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Friday will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 16

• The U.S. is to produce data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Empire State.

Tuesday, June 17

• The U.S. is to produce data on housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.

Wednesday, June 18

• The BoJ is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
• Japan is also to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Thursday, June 19

• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, June 20

• BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: June 16 - 20

The Canadian dollar was flat against the U.S. dollar on Friday despite higher oil prices as a result of a Sunni insurgency in Iraq.

USD/CAD was at 1.0855 late Friday, almost unchanged for the day. For the week, the pair was down 0.45%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0821, the low of May 30 and resistance at 1.0905, Wednesday’s high.

Brent oil prices rose to a nine-month high on Friday amid concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq, fueling fears over the impact of reduced output from one of the world's largest crude oil producers.

Brent crude hit a session high of $114.07 a barrel and U.S. crude oil went as high as $107.68 during the session.

While higher oil prices normally boost the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, the flight to safety arising from the conflict and fears over the impact on global economic growth offset that.

The greenback showed little reaction after data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.

The report came a day after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in May, but the previous month was revised higher.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May, falling short of expectations for a 0.6% gain. However, retail sales for April were revised up to a 0.5% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.1%.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was flat at 80.75 late Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while Friday’s Canadian data on inflation and retail sales will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 16

• Canada is to publish a report on foreign securities purchases.
• The U.S. is to produce data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Empire State.

Tuesday, June 17

• The U.S. is to produce data on housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.

Wednesday, June 18

• Canada is to produce data on wholesale sales.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Thursday, June 19

• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, June 20

• Canada is to round up the week with data on consumer inflation and retail sales.

AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 16 - 20

The Australian dollar fell from a nine-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as concerns over escalating violence in Iraq dampened demand for riskier assets.

AUD/USD hit 0.9436 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since April 10, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9402 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.26% for the day but 0.72% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9347, the low from June 12 and resistance at 0.9436, the high from June 12.

Concerns over the ongoing Sunni insurgency in Iraq hit market sentiment on Friday, amid fears over the impact of reduced oil supply on global growth.

The escalating violence in Iraq overshadowed a report showing that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2, down from 81.9 in May, missing expectations for an uptick to 83.0.

The report came one day after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in May, but the previous month was revised higher.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May, falling short of expectations for a 0.6% gain. However, retail sales for April were revised up to a 0.5% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.1%.

Meanwhile, in Australia, official data released Thursday showed that the number of employed people in Australia declined by 4,800 in May, compared to expectations for a 10,000 rise.

Australia's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% last month, confounding expectations for an uptick to 5.9%.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending June 10.

Net longs totaled 28,247 contracts, compared to net longs of 21,527 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its most-recent policy meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, June 16

• The U.S. is to produce data on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the Empire State.

Tuesday, June 17

• The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
• Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce data on housing starts, building permits and consumer prices.

Wednesday, June 18

• Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators.
• Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Thursday, June 19

• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.