Weekly Outlook: 2014, March 23 - 30

USD/JPY weekly outlook: March 24 - 28

The dollar slipped lower against the yen on Friday as fresh tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine bolstered safe haven demand for the Japanese currency.

USD/JPY slipped 0.14% to 102.24 at the close, down from Wednesday’s highs of 102.67. For the week, the pair was 0.34% higher.

The pair was likely to find support at 101.60 and resistance at 102.67, Wednesday’s high.

Caution returned to markets as the political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated, after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia on Friday, fanning concerns over the impact on global growth.

The dollar had racked up strong gains against the yen in the previous two sessions, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates earlier than previously thought.

The dollar strengthened across the board Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

The comments prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a rate hike to as soon as March of next year.

The Fed also reduced its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, and said there was “underlying strength in the broader economy.”

Elsewhere, the EUR/JPY ended Friday’s session at 141.09, recovering from one-week lows of 140.44 struck earlier in the day.

The single currency was boosted after data on Friday showed that the region’s current account surplus rose to a record €25.3 billion in January.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods. Meanwhile, Japan is to release a flurry of economic reports on Friday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 24

• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 25

• The U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 26

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.

Thursday, March 27

• The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, March 28

• Japan is to release a series of data, including reports on household spending, inflation and retail sales.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: March 24 - 28

The U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar on Friday as the release of stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation data eased pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates.

USD/CAD slid 0.18% to settle at 1.1220, backing off the four-and-a-half year peaks of 1.1277 reached on Thursday.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.1121, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 1.1277.

The Canadian dollar found support after Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices rose 0.8% in February, up from 0.3% in January. Analysts had forecast a 0.6% rise.

On a year-over-year basis, inflation slowed to 1.1%, from 1.5% in January.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is also known, received an additional boost after a separate report showed that Canadian retail sales rose 1.3% in January, recouping some of the previous months 1.9% decline. Market expectations had been for an increase of 0.8%.

Earlier in the week, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz warned that the bank could have to cut rates if inflation remains low. He also warned that economic growth in the first quarter could be “on the soft side”.

The dollar rose to its highest level against the loonie since July 2009 on Thursday, buoyed up by expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates earlier than previously thought.

The dollar strengthened across the board Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

The comments prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a rate hike to as soon as March of next year.

The Fed also reduced its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, and said there was “underlying strength in the broader economy.”

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods. Canada is not scheduled to release any economic reports.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 24

• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 25

• The U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 26

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.

Thursday, March 27

• The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, March 28

• The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.

NZD/USD weekly outlook: March 24 - 28

The New Zealand ended Friday’s session little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as market players continued to monitor developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

NZD/USD fell to 0.8500 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since March 12, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8536 by close of trade on Friday, little changed for the day and 0.02% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8500, the low from March 20 and resistance at 0.8567, the high from March 21.

Caution returned to markets as the political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated, after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow.

The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia on Friday, fanning concerns over the impact on global growth.

The greenback had racked up strong gains against the kiwi in the previous two sessions, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates earlier than previously thought.

The U.S. dollar rallied across the board Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

The comments prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a rate hike to as soon as March of next year.

The Fed also reduced its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, and said there was “underlying strength in the broader economy.”

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, official data released Wednesday showed that the country’s economy expanded by 0.9% in the fourth quarter, below expectations for growth of 1%.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending March 18.

Net longs totaled 15,751 contracts as of last week, up 8.2% from net longs of 14,449 contracts in the previous week.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods to further gauge the strength of the economy.

Attention will also turn to the release of HSBC's March China Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 24

• China is to release the preliminary estimate of the HSBC manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health.
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 25

• The U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 26

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.
• New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Thursday, March 27

• The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, March 28

• The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.

AUD/USD weekly outlook: March 24 - 28

The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session higher against its U.S. counterpart, but gains remained limited amid fresh tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine.

AUD/USD rose to 0.9137 on Tuesday, the pair’s highest since December 11, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9082 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.46% for the day and 0.55% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8994, the low from March 20 and resistance at 0.9133, the high from March 19.

Caution returned to markets as the political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated, after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow.

The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia on Friday, fanning concerns over the impact on global growth.

The greenback had racked up strong gains against the Aussie in the previous two sessions, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates earlier than previously thought.

The U.S. dollar rallied across the board Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

The comments prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a rate hike to as soon as March of next year.

The Fed also reduced its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, and said there was “underlying strength in the broader economy.”

Meanwhile, in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia said un the minutes of its March policy meeting that it saw more signs that record-low interest rates were supporting growth and reiterated that a period of steady borrowing costs was likely.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators significantly reduced their bearish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending March 18.

Net shorts totaled 24,463 contracts, down 40.1% from the previous week’s total of 40,850 net shorts.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods to further gauge the strength of the economy.

Attention will also turn to the release of HSBC's March China Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is Australia's biggest export partner.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 24

• China is to release the preliminary estimate of the HSBC manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health.
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 25

• The U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 26

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.

Thursday, March 27

• The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, March 28

• The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.

GBP/USD weekly outlook: March 24 - 28

The pound ended the week close to five-week lows against the dollar on Friday as growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than anticipated supported the dollar.

GBP/USD edged down 0.10% to 1.6485 on Friday, the weakest level since February. For the week, the pair lost 0.91%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6400 and resistance at 1.6567, Thursday’s high.

The dollar rallied on Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

The comments prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a rate hike to as soon as March of next year.

The Fed also reduced its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, and said there was “underlying strength in the broader economy.”

In the U.K., Wednesday’s minutes of the Bank of England’s March meeting indicated that the economic recovery in the U.K. is broadening, but still has some way to go before it is sustainable. The monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates at a record low 0.5% this month, the minutes said.

Also Wednesday, official data showed that the U.K. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.2% in the three months to January. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the U.K. fell by a larger-than-forecast 34,600 in February, indicating that the recovery in the labor market is continuing.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods. The U.K. is to publish reports on inflation and retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 24

• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 25

• The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The nation is also to release private sector data on retail sales.
• Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 26

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.

Thursday, March 27

• The U.K. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, March 28

• The U.K. is to release data on the current account and final data on fourth quarter growth.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.

EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 24 - 28

The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday, as the dollar took a breather following a rally in the previous two sessions, sparked by prospects for an earlier than anticipated rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

EUR/USD edged up 0.12% to 1.3793 on Friday, after falling to two-week lows of 1.3748 on Thursday. For the week, the pair lost 0.94%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3748, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.3844, Thursday’s high.

The single currency was boosted after data on Friday showed that the region’s current account surplus rose to a record €25.3 billion in January.

A separate report showed that euro zone consumer confidence improved more than expected in March.

The European Commission reported that its sentiment index rose to -9.3 from a reading of -12.7 in February. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to -12.4.

Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned by speculation that the U.S. central bank could raise rates as soon as early next year.

The dollar rallied on Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

The comments prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a rate hike to as early as March of next year.

The Fed also reduced its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, and said there was “underlying strength in the broader economy.”

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods. Euro zone data on private sector activity and preliminary inflation data from Germany will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 24

• The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health. Germany and France are also to release
• The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 25

• In the euro zone, Germany is to release the Ifo report on business climate.
• Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 26

• In the euro zone, Germany is to release a report on Gfk consumer climate.
• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.

Thursday, March 27

• The euro zone is to release data on M3 money supply.
• The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, March 28

• In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on consumer inflation, while France is to publish data on consumer spending.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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