CAD Technical Analysis

The Bank of Canada seemed to have one key point at today’s Bank of Canada announcement, Fiscal Stimulus works. Fiscal Stimulus is synonymous with Government spending in a strategic manner. Given the economic pain from the year-over-year decline in Oil prices, Fiscal Stimulus from PM Justin Trudeau was key in the Bank of Canada holding in January, which put the Canadian Dollar on a rise not seen since 2009, when Oil bottomed before tripling in price and lifting the Canadian Dollar over the next three years. Impressively, the bank said that energy investments will plunge by 60 percent this year from where it was in 2014.

The admitted risk on the horizon per the BoC has stemmed from a stronger Canadian Dollar alongside weaker global growth than expected, but they felt comfortable with rates around 0.5%. Poloz noted that the positive elements in the economy were edging out the negative influences adding that the elements of a recovery are in place.



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Short entry after bearish price action on the H1 time frame following the next touch of 1.2918.

Daily price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition with the ranging on the bearish reversal.

If price will break 82.63 support level so the bearish reversal of the daily price movement will be started.
If price will break 85.44 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
85.44	82.63
88.78	81.69

• Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 85.44 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 82.63 support level for possible sell trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

H4 price is located near and below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish condition with the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 10-day high at 1.3143 located far above 200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 10-day low at 1.2654 located near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish area.

• If the price will break 1.3143 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
• If the price will break 1.2654 support level on close bar so the bearish market condition will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

CAD/JPY : 697 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results

Weekly price is testing 1.3187 resistance level with the ascending triangle pattern to be broken to above for the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition. Alternative, the Absolute Strength indicator together with Trength indicator are estimating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing with 1.2460 support level to be broken to below for the bearish condition to be resumed on this timeframe.

If W1 price breaks 1.3187 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If W1 price breaks 1.2460 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging.

USD/CAD looks to be breaking out of a period of consolidation as the US Dollar’s strength may resume. In such a case, we’d expect to see an aggressive move higher toward the 38.2-61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the January 20-May 3 Range, which could push USD/CAD up to ~1.3307-1.3832.

Therefore, if USD/CAD will resume a Bull-Run, a break above 1.3028/3187 will be the first indication that we could be on our way to multi-100 pip rally. After the trading 1.3187 in late May, the price has found support a few hundred pips lower around ~1.2650.

For now, 1.2650 is key support, and until that level is broken, either consolidation or waiting for a breakout higher will remain in focus. Tighter levels of support can be found at the Weekly Pivot at 1.2920 and the 61.8% of the Thursday-Monday range post-Brexit at 1.2845. However, these levels are likely more beneficial for shorter-term that are looking for shorter-term levels for intraday opportunities.

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Weekly price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 83.80 resistance located in the beginnijg fo the bullish erversal to be started, and
• 76.02 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.

If weekly price breaks 76.75 support level to 76.02 target to re-enter so the primary bearish trend will be continuing, otherwise - ranging bearish.

Daily price is on secondary rally within the primary bullish market condition: price broke one of Senkou Span line B of Ichimoku indicator to above for the ranging rally to be located inside Ichimoku cloud.

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If we can break above the top of the candle, it’s very likely that this market will then reach towards the 1.35 level which I believe is very possible this quarter.