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USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 34.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.87 ...

          
   
  1. #241
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    USD/JPY Breaks to 11-Month Highs

    USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 34.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.87 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 13 when USDJPY traded near 111.628; price has moved 2.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 10.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.7% higher than yesterday and 32.5% higher from last week.

    USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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  2. #242
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    EUR/USD: Daily/Weekly Bearish Breakdown

    EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.29 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 01 when EURUSD traded near 1.15754; price has moved 0.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 10.4% higher than yesterday and 0.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.8% lower than yesterday and 10.5% higher from last week.

    USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

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  3. #243
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    Japanese Yen: Bullish to continue or Bearish to reverse

    Another week of heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets proved to be fertile ground for another round of gains by the Japanese Yen. Spurred on by fresh concerns over the Brexit process and the Italian budget saga, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY were two of the three worst performers, losing -2.45% and -1.53% respectively. More pressure on emerging markets amid trade war concerns weighed on AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, which sank by -0.97% and -1.96% each.

    USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    While price action on Friday produced a sharp reversal in higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets, thus yielding a selloff in the Yen, the facts on the ground dictating the current risk environment haven't changed: the aggregate impact of tightening monetary policy, mismanaged fiscal policy (rising deficits), trade wars, high oil costs, and high inflation are too much for market participants at present time. Weekly and monthly charts still point to further gains for the Japanese Yen, even if a round of short-term position squaring (profit taking at the end of the month) transpires.

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  4. #244
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    USD/JPY: Bullish As Net-Long

    USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 45.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.19 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.9% higher than yesterday and 24.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 14.4% higher than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week.

    USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis-usdjpy-d1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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  5. #245
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    Euro Monthly Downtrend

    October ended with the Euro seemingly set to suffer deeper losses against the US Dollar. A look at the monthly chart reveals prices breached range top resistance-turned-support centered around the 1.15 figure – a pivotal inflection point since May 2015 – to suggest that a move toward a four-year range floor near 1.05 may well be in the cards in the months ahead.

    USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurusd-mn1-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    The bearish bias remains upon examination of more actionable positioning on the daily chart, but the setup is far less immediately actionable than it might seem at first glance. Prices are resting resistance guiding the downswing from the downswing started in late September. It is thus far unclear whether this barrier will hold and bearish is resumption is to follow or if a breakout will precede a larger upside retracement.

    Resistance is now at 1.1432, with a break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 1.1543-54 inflection region. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1.1279-1.1314 zone paves the way for a challenge of the swing low at 1.1218. The absence of a bearish reversal signal or a clear-cut break makes it unclear which scenario might prevail however.

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  6. #246
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    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Range Support

    Last week, the Euro entered consolidation mode against the British Pound after what appeared to be a false breakout above a falling trend line from August. Since then, the range of price action has solidified as traders eagerly await a breakout. The upper boundary of resistance is a horizontal range between 0.89449 and 0.89235. Meanwhile the lower border is between 0.88384 and 0.88108.

    USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis-eurgbp-d1-alpari-international-limited.png


    There is an early warning signal that EUR/GBP's next leg might be lower. Negative RSI divergence has appeared during the pair’s attempt to break above the range of resistance. This shows that upside momentum is ebbing and that the push higher is becoming more and more of a struggle. With that in mind, EUR/GBP may find itself soon testing consolidation support.

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