USDJPY and EURUSD Technical Analysis

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 34.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.87 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 13 when USDJPY traded near 111.628; price has moved 2.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 10.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.7% higher than yesterday and 32.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 56.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.29 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 01 when EURUSD traded near 1.15754; price has moved 0.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 10.4% higher than yesterday and 0.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.8% lower than yesterday and 10.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

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Another week of heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets proved to be fertile ground for another round of gains by the Japanese Yen. Spurred on by fresh concerns over the Brexit process and the Italian budget saga, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY were two of the three worst performers, losing -2.45% and -1.53% respectively. More pressure on emerging markets amid trade war concerns weighed on AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, which sank by -0.97% and -1.96% each.

While price action on Friday produced a sharp reversal in higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets, thus yielding a selloff in the Yen, the facts on the ground dictating the current risk environment haven't changed: the aggregate impact of tightening monetary policy, mismanaged fiscal policy (rising deficits), trade wars, high oil costs, and high inflation are too much for market participants at present time. Weekly and monthly charts still point to further gains for the Japanese Yen, even if a round of short-term position squaring (profit taking at the end of the month) transpires.

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USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 45.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.19 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.9% higher than yesterday and 24.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 14.4% higher than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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October ended with the Euro seemingly set to suffer deeper losses against the US Dollar. A look at the monthly chart reveals prices breached range top resistance-turned-support centered around the 1.15 figure – a pivotal inflection point since May 2015 – to suggest that a move toward a four-year range floor near 1.05 may well be in the cards in the months ahead.

The bearish bias remains upon examination of more actionable positioning on the daily chart, but the setup is far less immediately actionable than it might seem at first glance. Prices are resting resistance guiding the downswing from the downswing started in late September. It is thus far unclear whether this barrier will hold and bearish is resumption is to follow or if a breakout will precede a larger upside retracement.

Resistance is now at 1.1432, with a break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 1.1543-54 inflection region. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1.1279-1.1314 zone paves the way for a challenge of the swing low at 1.1218. The absence of a bearish reversal signal or a clear-cut break makes it unclear which scenario might prevail however.

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Last week, the Euro entered consolidation mode against the British Pound after what appeared to be a false breakout above a falling trend line from August. Since then, the range of price action has solidified as traders eagerly await a breakout. The upper boundary of resistance is a horizontal range between 0.89449 and 0.89235. Meanwhile the lower border is between 0.88384 and 0.88108.

There is an early warning signal that EUR/GBP's next leg might be lower. Negative RSI divergence has appeared during the pair’s attempt to break above the range of resistance. This shows that upside momentum is ebbing and that the push higher is becoming more and more of a struggle. With that in mind, EUR/GBP may find itself soon testing consolidation support.

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The Euro looks to be resuming the downward trend started in January 2018 against the US Dollar, despite a spirited rise on Friday. The currency has breached counter-trend support guiding the retracement from mid-November lows. The latest surge conspicuously failed to undo that break, hinting it was corrective.

Overlapping layers of resistance now face buyers hoping for upside follow-through. The counter-trend support zone, two notable chart inflection areas and the outer bound of 12-month resistance would need to be overcome to meaningfully neutralize near-term selling pressure. That implies returning above 1.1552.

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Last week, the Euro furthered weakness off confluent trend-line resistance. The move from resistance already has big support in view as the trading range remains quite narrow in historical terms. Only a small handful of times has the 6-month range ever been this tight.

In the current environment fade trades off significant levels have been the only tactical approach working. Next week may bring another such opportunity if either the lower parallel holds or price maintains the zone from around 11320 down to 11268, with price support the most meaningful.

The 11300-level became important back in August, with the area just surrounding it having become an inflection point of support on numerous occasions since late October. The more times a level or price zone is tested the more meaningful it becomes.

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The Japanese Yen remains on the defensive against the US Dollar, even if the latter is making heavy weather of a key psychological resistance point.

USD/JPY has managed to rise above the downtrend channel previously dominant since January 10. It was an extension of the rise seen consistently from this year’s lows, printed on January 2.

USD/JPY reversals will probably find near-term daily chart support between 111.05 and 110.23. That range bounded trade between February 11 and 28. Of course the pair would remain solidly in its uptrend even if that range were to break, but it would certainly look less comfortable there than it has in the last two weeks.

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The Euro is back to testing resistance guiding it lower against he US Dollar since January 2018, a barrier reinforced by the top of a choppy channel in play over the past two months. Another rejection might open the door for the next leg in the single currency’s slow downward grind while a break higher has might set the stage for a significant medium-term trend reversal.

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