CHF Technical Analysis

Trade Signal
Sell CHFJPY around 111.19 with your take profit at 107.97.

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In this piece, we will describe the situation on EURCHF, where a week ago we were waiting for a buy signal. We did not say that there'd be a buy signal right now, but we acknowledged the possibility: “As long as we stay below the Fibo mentioned above, sentiment will remain negative, but the breakout of this line will give us a proper buy signal." This is what we wrote back then.


Patience is the virtue of every trader. Usually, you need to wait for the proper signal. In this case, it did not happen and the price dipped lower. Thursday was decisive, how to trade for beginners here. The price broke the lower line of the flag and the short-term horizontal support. That gave a boost to the sellers and cleared the way south. Monday is bringing us a breakout of the green line connecting the bottom of the head and the right shoulder. That represents the total cancellation of the positive sentiment and opens the way for us towards new yearly lows.

The sell signal will be cancelled when there is a breakout at the black line. That resistance has been connecting the most important lower highs since April. The chances of that are rather slim.

Switzerland's economic outlook is set to remain gloomy for the rest of this year, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute said on Monday, as it leading indicator dropped for a second straight month to reach its lowest level since 2015.

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The Swiss Franc has been struggling to capitalize on stock market volatility ahead of the SNB policy meeting. Rising government bond rates externally may leave CHF vulnerable in the long run.

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Swiss consumer price inflation accelerated further to its highest since October 2008, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Wednesday.

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Fridays U.S. CPI beat reignited dollar bets causing USD/CHF to test May swing highs. Currently the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has adopted a fairly neutral/dovish approach but with inflation rising above 2% in May, money markets are looking to a potential rate hike this coming week with roughly 20bps priced in at the moment. The daily price is breaking 0.9817 resistance level to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.

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Switzerland's retail sales increased in July, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Thursday.

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Switzerland's consumer price inflation increased sharply in 2022, mainly due to a rise in prices of fuels, cars and housing rentals, while price growth slowed in December amid lower energy prices, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Wednesday.

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