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Crude Oil Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on Crude Oil Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Before Crude Oil broke down and traded below the 200-DMA ($48.65 as of 3/15/17), Oil and Gas Energy & Exploration ...

          
   
  1. #41
    Senior Member TechnoMeter's Avatar
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    Crude Oil Price Forecast: Keep It Simple, Watch This Moving Average

    Before Crude Oil broke down and traded below the 200-DMA ($48.65 as of 3/15/17), Oil and Gas Energy & Exploration stocks had broken down and appear to be leading Oil, so it continues to be worth watching. The rolling 20-day correlation for Crude Oil forward contract and the S&P Oil Producer Index is +.598 as of March 15, which is significant.

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-brentcrud-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    The price of Crude Oil recently traded below the 200-DMA with RSI(5) registering a bearish extreme. If the price pops higher as it did in April, August, and November of last year, the Bulls may feel as though they’ve dodged a bullet. However, the Crude Oil market doesn’t have the fundamental support that other commodity sectors like base metals have, which could lead to an eventual breakdown toward the November low of $43.75/42.25.

    While such a breakdown would hurt, price holding above the November low could indicate a longer-term consolidation lasting much of the year, which is when larger-range Fibonacci Retracement is best used. Either an immediate move back above the 200-DMA or hold of the November low would keep a neutral market still anticipating an eventual move back toward the upper $50/bbl region.

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  2. #42
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    Crude Oil Price Forecast: Downside Stalls on OPEC Favoring Extension

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-brentcrud-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    While OPEC may be winning in their battle to balance the global Oil market, it is not necessarily happening on the timeframe they would prefer. Naturally, it is not helpful that Shale production is at its highest levels since 2015. The U.S. Shale resurgence coupled with OPEC’s supply management continues to provide hope for Oil bulls. While Crude dropped ~3% on Wednesday, there is also likely to be volatility on expiration-position squaring is occurring as May WTI contract expires Thursday.

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  3. #43
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    $43.79 is Key Level for Crude Oil Prices

    Now that crude oil prices have bounced from $43.79, the Elliott Wave model suggests sideways to higher trade in the coming weeks. The two favored patterns we are following right now is a big triangle or diagonal pattern.

    X Wave Triangle
    Under this triangle scenario, prices would need to top soon and below $55.21. If a short term pivot forms, we would anticipate one last dip to hold above $43.79 to finish off the triangle pattern. This is an overall bullish pattern that would lead to a break higher. This triangle is valid in the near term so long as crude oil prices are contained between $43.79 and $55.21.

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-brentcrud-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Diagonal Pattern
    Under this scenario, the dip to $43.79 was wave four of the five wave diagonal. This sequence implies crude oil prices have begun their ending wave higher. This final wave likely grabs a new high above $57 while holding the green support trend line.

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