Brokers Minutes

Light Week:

This is going to be a relatively light week as far as fundamental releases of significance toward central bank policies. US GDP data on Thursday (8/28) will probably be this week most important data point.

Monday (8/25)

German Ifo Business Climate (August): Forecast: 107.1, July: 108.0
As economic data shows a slowdown in the Eurozone, businesses are feeling the pinch. The German Ifo Business Climinate survey is expected to show the worst result in a year, since August 2013, when the reading was 106.2.

US New Home Sales (July): Forecast: 426K, June: 406K
Data for the US housing sector in July have been impressive. We saw strong building approvals, housing starts, and exisintg home sales data all improve and beat expectrations. New Home Sales is exected to improve in July and should help to keep the USD buoyed.

NZ Tade Balance (July): Forecast: -475M, June: 247M
New Zealand is expected to post its first month of trade deficit in 2014. The RBNZ’s rate cuts this year has been working through the economy, and we are seeing a bit of a slowdown, so it does seem like it will be a while before the central bank can consider raising rates again. A trade deficit should weigh on the NZD, which should continue to pare its first half-year of gains.

Tuesday (8/26)

US Durable Goods (July): Forecast: 7.4%, June 1.7% (revised up from 0.7%)
Core Durable Goods (July): 0.5%, June: 1.9% (revised up from 0.8%)




It looks like Q2 ended with a bang, and Q3 is starting with good demand that should help sustain growth throughout the year. strong US data continue to support the case for a rate hike earlier than mid-2015.

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (August): Forecast: 89.1, July: 90.9



Consumer Confidence is expected to level off a bit in August, but it is still strong, as July’s reading was the highst reading since Oct. 2007.

Wednesday (8/27)

GfK German Consumer Climate (August): 8.9, July: 9.0
Just businesses, consumers are expected to feel the slowdown in the Eurozone economy.

Thursday (8/28)

AUS Private Capital Expenditure q/q (Q2): Forecast: -0.8%, Previous: -4.2%
Look for a positive capital expenditure reading as a surprise that can lift the Australian Dollar. It has slid and been consolidating. If we do see capital investment rebound, the AUD should avoid sliding further, and at least remain in consolidation.

German Prelim CPI m/m (August): 0.0%, Previous 0.3%
Disinflationary pressure in the Eurozone is well noted. Soft inflation data for Germany will continue to fan the expectation of more ECB stimulus measures, which should also continue to pressure the Euro.

US Prelimary GDP Q2: 3.9%, Advanced Estiate: 4.0%



The GDP data for Q2 is expected to be a hair below the first “advanced” estimate. Look for a boost for the USD if the reading stays at 4.0% or better. A slide lower than 3.9% might cause the USD to pare its recent gains if it hasn’t already done so throughout the week.

US Jobless Claims Forecast: 299K, Previous 298K
Jobs data continue to impress as jobless claims readings are starting to hold below 300K.

US Pending Home Sales (July) Forecast: 0.6%, June: -1.1%
Can we go 5 for 5 this month in terms of housing data? Not only have housing data been improving in July they have beat forecasts, and have been part of the reason for the strong USD in recent weeks.

Friday (8/29)

Eurozone Flash CPI Estimate y/y (August) Forecast: 0.3%, July: 0.4%.


A few months ago, Draghi predicted that the 0.5% y/y annual CPI growth was the low on the year. However, the annual inflation rate fell in July, and is expected to fall again in August. ECB stimulus soon?

CAN GDP m/m (June) Forecast: 0.3%, May: 0.4%
May’s reading was the strongest in 4 months, and June’s reading is expected to almost just as strong, and would make it the 6th straigth months of GDP growth in Canada. A reading above 0.3% will give CAD a chance to pare some of its recent losses.

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Litecoin Holds Below 6.00, Continues Bearish Trend

By Forexminute - Fan Yang | Litecoin | Aug 23, 2014 7:45PM BST




Litecoin was in a consolidation and bullish correction mode last week, rallying from a low of 3.33 to 6.19. There was resistance around the 6.0 handle, and price retreated since than. During the 8/23 Saturday session, price continues to slide, and has cleared the 5.0 level and the 50-period SMA in the 4H chart, bringing back the bearish outlook. The next phase in the 4H chart would for the RSI reading to drop below 40, which shows loss of bullish momentum from last week, and thus reduces the prospect of a bullish market.

Litecoin 4H chart 8/23

The volume is not strong with this decline, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves yet. It is true we should maintain a bearish outlook because the prevailing trend is bearish, especially a break below a support pivot at 6.66. The bearish outlook exposes the 2014-low at 2.21. While this is still the outlook for the medium-term, we did see short-term neutralized if not turned bullish. So, let’s first limit our bearish outlook to the 3.33-3.40 lows from last week. We have to juggle this conservative outlook with the very bearish outlook seen in the daily chart.
As you can see on the daily chart, there was a spike down to 2.21 on July 1st, and price has since been cheweing down this “tail”. The market looks poised to do so, and threaten to push even lower back to the common price in the 1.50-2.0 area througout 2013 before the November to December surge.

Litecoin Daily Chart 8/23




After looking at the 4H and Daily chart, we can be neutral, bearish, or neutral-bearish, but there should not be any consideration of a bullish market yet, at least until price gest to 2.21, and the daily RSI back below 30.
Also, if the 4H RSI fails to break below 40 and comes back up while price stays north of 4.0 and climbs above 5.0, we should expect further consolidation, bullish correction in the upcoming week.


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San Francisco Open Exchange Aims to Provide Better Trading Opportunities for Bitcoiners

By Forexminute - Deepak Tiwari | Bitcoin | Aug 24, 2014 11:48AM BST




San Francisco Open Exchange Aims to Provide Better Trading Opportunities for Bitcoiners

San Francisco Open Exchange or SFOX is an online trading platform that helps people find the best Bitcoin prices at various exchanges. However, unlike some other Bitcoin exchanges it does not actually allow traders buy or sell Bitcoin directly; rather, it provides a platform which facilitates finding the best price on these exchanges.
This sort of service is not being provided many other Bitcoin companies and understanding the requirement, this Y Combinator-backed startup is trying to provide an online trading platform that helps traders find the best Bitcoin prices at various exchanges. With SFOX, traders would be able to buy, sell and invest in Bitcoin exchanges which are like buying and selling stocks on e-Trade.

In his statement to media, the co-founder of SFOX, Akbar Thobhani said that when he found that using Bitcoin was even more expensive than using credit cards because there was not a lot of transparency, he started thinking that if he could find a way to compare prices this would help drive widespread adoption for the Bitcoin market.

He admitted that though there are a number of exchange services providers that help traders directly buy and sell Bitcoin; however, there is a need for an exchange or a platform that can provide the best prices. According to him SFOX aims to find its customers the best price for their Bitcoin and for that it is working with multiple exchanges and use algorithms to route the transactions.

Locating Bitcoin Exchange Will be Easy for Traders

SFOX says that it is trying to help traders locate the Bitcoin exchanges which according to it will help them know about the BTC exchanges and which jurisdictions they are falling in. Currently, 90 percent of all Bitcoin trading is done in the US; however, the most popular exchanges like Bitstamp and BTC-e are based outside of the country.
A problem that comes when the US traders trade with the Bitcoin exchanges located outside came to light when Mt. Gox collapsed and many of them lost their valuable investments. However, once they are able to locate the Bitcoin exchanges, they can make informed decisions while opening a trading account and avoid any potential losses.

If the Bitcoin exchange is located inside the US, there are currency regulations and the customers get their problems addressed; however, in situations like what happened to Mt. Gox, the US authorities feel helpless.


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AAPL Shares Show Bullish Momentum Past 100.00 – Aug 25, 2014

By Forexminute - Jonathan Millet | Stock Tips | Aug 25, 2014 4:58AM BST




After a couple of days of consolidation, with candlesticks showing indecision, AAPL shares made a convincing upside break past the $100/share level. This indicates that more buying pressures is present for AAPL shares, with buyers pushing the stock price past a key psychological resistance mark.

At the same time, MACD is still reflecting a pickup in buying momentum for AAPL shares, as the oscillator is moving higher. RSI is also showing strong buying pressure as it has crossed past the 50.0 mark and is on its way up to the overbought area. Price might reach $101.00/share before pulling back.

AAPL Shares Forecast

A pullback might last until the $97.50/share area of interest before price heads further north, but the influx of buying might not even pave the way for a shallow retracement. There have been no major announcements from Apple recently, but it looks like the pickup in risk appetite has shored AAPL shares higher, along with other US equities.

Geopolitical tensions appear to have faded or at least had a weaker impact on financial markets recently, as traders have focused on the implications of the latest Jackson Hole Summit. In particular, Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen spoke of keeping stimulus in place if the labor market fails to show sustained improvements.

This was received positively by US equities, as the promise of easy money and low interest rates spell better prospects for spending and business investment. Yellen indicated that they could tighten earlier than anticipated if consistent developments are seen, giving AAPL shares traders confidence to hold on to the stock for now.
As the launch of the iPhone6 draws nearer, traders might be pricing in more upbeat prospects for the company and buying up more AAPL shares. Introduction of new software updates and gadgets also tend to be positive for the company’s stock trends.


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Amazon Stock Set to Fill Price Gap? – August 26, 2014

By Forexminute - Jonathan Millet | Stock Tips | Aug 26, 2014 6:18AM BST




Amazon stock prices gapped down from the $360/share level to the $320/share area, leading to expectations of more weakness for the share price. However, it appears that Amazon stock prices bottomed out around the $310/share level before rebounding up to the 50 simple moving average.

MACD is reflecting a pickup in buying momentum, as the indicator is climbing again. At the moment, Amazon stock prices are stalling below the $340/share mark, which is within the vicinity of the 50 SMA, which could act as resistance for now. An upside break from consolidation could lead to a test of the next area of interest at the 200 SMA.

Amazon Stock Outlook

RSI is also headed higher, with the oscillator climbing above the 50.0 level, indicating a return of buying pressure. Gains for Amazon stock could last until the $350/share level in the near term while a selloff could take prices down to the previous lows below $300/share.

For now, the 50 SMA is moving below the longer-term moving average, which means that the path of least resistance is to the downside. News that the company is acquiring Twitch, a live-stream gaming network, hasn’t been very impressive for investors as the deal is almost at $1 billion.

Analysts have rated Amazon stock as a negative or hold, as the prospects for the company haven’t improved recently. According to analysts at TheStreetRatings, the revenue growth came in higher than the industry average of 7.5%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 23.1%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company’s bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share.
The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and the Internet & Catalog Retail industry, reflecting weak prospects for Amazon stock.


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BitQuick Launches its Trading Platform for the Middle-East Customers

By Forexminute - Deepak Tiwari | Bitcoin | Aug 27, 2014 7:41PM BST




After delivering their Bitcoin buying and selling platform services to customers worldwide, BitQuick is now focusing into Middle-East. To announce the latest launch, the company resorted to social media and posted on its Twitter account that it has launched a trading platform for the Middle East which will allow enthusiasts in the region to buy and sell Bitcoin.

BitQuick did not reveal too much information about the launch; however, it made clear that they have launched support for six currencies that include the USD and have made the buying and selling of the digital currency available in several countries like Jordan, Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and more in the Middle-East.

There are not many Bitcoin companies that have focused into the potential market in petro-dollar rich Middle-East and the latest step from BitQuick is going to be a megahit among the customers in the region. The company has surprised many observers of Bitcoin industry as most companies are focusing North & South America, Europe, and Asia for their expansion.
Not just buying and selling platform for Bitcoin but also a dedicated site for prospective Middle Eastern customers has been launched by the company. It will be BitQuick.me for the customers from the Middle-East which is going to cater their requirement for selling or buying of the digital currency with ease and comfort.

Walking Into the Less Walked Territory

In its announcement the company says that users can buy Bitcoin instantly with Cash Deposit or Bank Transfer from sellers with Bitcoins already in escrow for a low 2% fee. The company source further added that buying Bitcoin can customers can use them for whatsoever purpose and even sell them with no fee.

A lot of apprehensions are being placed by the critics as this is kind of new service for the customers and none knows whether it will be able to attract people or not. If once this feature catches the attention of the customers, some other Bitcoin companies may consider offering similar services as well.

Middle-East which so far has been seen as less lucrative a market for Bitcoin companies may get fresh air of life with the latest decision to launch a buying and selling platform for customers. The company has ventured in the less walked territory and for this simple decision it is being praised by the people who support for the global expansion of the Bitcoin reach.


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Ahead of the weekend, the cryptocurrency market is hinting a depressive price behavior. In the last 24 hours, almost every top coin including Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, etc. have slipped by notable margins, indicating bearish behavior during the next sessions. Darkcoin at the same time has turned out to be the only coin which has shown some progress, after falling massively from days.

Speaking of Bitcoin, its sector has been filled with optimistic news all these hours – the most wonderful being the possibility of more merchants adapting digital currency after the successful deal between BitPay and Demandware, Inc. While this news is yet unworthy to add few more dollars to Bitcoin price, but is indeed worthy enough to decorate the coin’s stand among international merchants and consumers.

Meanwhile at the same time, the cryptocurrency market is facing shocks from the only coin that was rising superbly from previous days. BitSharesX fell as like it rose, indicating nothing but a well-planned pump-and-dump by its key actors. The coin’s market cap has fallen over 32% in the last 24 hours.

BTC/USD
After falling massively in a supposed sell-off during 8/24 trading session, the BTC/USD opened yesterday while being priced at 510.962. Even though the pair picked and lost momentum consecutively for some time, it never suggested a specific trend by staying directionless. Investors there might have lost a bit of confidence in trades, as the BTC/USD fell notably right ahead of the session’s close (at 509). The maximum resistance and support level reached during the 8/28 trading hours was 516.157 and 510.962.
While in today’s trading session, the BTC/USD is clearly suggesting a bearish outlook. At press time, the BTC/USD is being traded at 506.05 and has dropped 0.71% in the last 24 hours.

LTC/BTC
Mirroring the Bitcoin trend, the LTC/BTC chart is also suggesting a bearish outlook for the next days. After falling from the peak-value of 0.01113360 during 8/27 trading hours, the pair us trending downwards by amplified scales. It opened yesterday at around 0.01069200 and swing between tight trading values for the rest of the day. Suggesting the possibility of sell-off by short term profiteers, the LTC/BTC took a deep dip ahead of closing and eventually finished the day by trading at 0.01012660.
However in today’s trading sessions, the pair has recovered slightly but is still under the shadow of Bitcoin’s future trend. At press time, the LTC/BTC is being traded at 0.01032980 and has risen 1.36% in the last 24 hours.


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Dubai Bitcoin Conference to be held In December This Year

By Forexminute - Deepak Tiwari | Bitcoin | Aug 31, 2014 10:32PM BST




After first ever Bitcoin machine coming up in Dubai a couple of days ago, the emerging city is now going to hold the Bitcoin conference later this year. Inviting the participants, the organizers of the event say that all interesting parties are invited to join peers to learn about Bitcoin and its effect on the UAE, GCC, Middle East and the world.

According to the official website of the Dubai Bitcoin Conference this will be a premier global gathering of thought leaders, developers and business leaders in the Bitcoin space and going to cover from the basics to the advanced. Nonetheless, this conference will cover the latest in the Bitcoin space in detail and provide an attractive opportunity for attended to learn and explore.

According to the organizers of the Dubai Bitcoin Conference there will be several sessions which will provide comprehensive coverage. For instance, there will be ‘beginners’ workshop session’ which will give the fundamental ideas about the digital currency to attendees. They will be able to know about Bitcoin Basics and further explore the other sessions.

Then there will be ‘Full Conference’ which is going to provide comprehensive coverage about the digital currency and the future of financial services, Bitcoin’s place and future the GCC, Job growth, startups, and the Blockchain and related technologies. There will also be panel discussion about security and exchanges.
Security and Bitcoin exchanges have become crucial issue for Bitcoin trader and investors after the collapse of Mt. Gox which lost millions of dollars of worth of Bitcoin. Many of the investors were even unable to sue the company as it was not in the jurisdiction of the US courts. The issue will be discussed to address the questions among the potential investors.

Sponsorships Invited

The official website of the Dubai Bitcoin Conference which is going to be held on December 11-13, 2014 says that the organizers are inviting sponsors as well. The website says, “We make every effort to keep ourselves as transparent as possible. Please find below our full conference sponsorship schedule.”

According to the organizers they have sponsorship opportunities available for every budget while helping the companies gain maximum exposure to important clients and investors and for that they are inviting the requests from them. As each sponsorship option is limited, the organizers request that the companies must rush before it’s too late.



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An anti-fracking organization in Belcoo in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is trying to convince farmers to vow “not on my land” as it tries to prevent fracking companies from gaining a foothold in the area.
Belcoo Frack Free is rolling out its “Lock the Gate” exercise, which will see it request farmers and landowners to sign up against allowing fracking, also known as hydraulic fracturing, on their land. The group believes the campaign will reduce the commercial viability of such activities in the area.

In an interview with the Fermanagh Herald, anti-fracking activist Donal O’ Cofaigh said while the decision by the Environment Minister Mark H Durkan to delay fracking activities was a welcome gesture, more still needs to be done.

Mr. Durkan rejected an application by energy firm Tamboran to carry out drilling activities in a site near Belcoo, temporarily blocking its plans. However, Tamboran can head to the courts to have the decision reversed, submit an application for full planning permission for its Belcoo drilling site, which may take a maximum of one year; or opt to drill elsewhere.

Mr. O’ Cofaigh, who unsuccessfully vied in local elections as an anti-fracking candidate earlier in May, effusively praised his fellow campaigners who he says have done a commendable job since Tamboran set up camp in the area in July 21.

“When Tamboran came in, they erected the razor wire fence, they had guard dogs, the security guys – the community was very angered. There was also a fear and I think it emboldened people to actually get involved and we had that protest that same day on the Monday,” said Mr. O’Cofaigh.


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Brent crude declined, stretching its two-month drop further, as OPEC’s oil output was predicted to soar to the highest level in a year. West Texas Intermediate dropped in New York.

Futures reversed as much as 0.4% in London, having lost more than $9 in July and August. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries bolstered production by 891,000 barrels per day to 31 million in August, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Iraqi forces reached the town of Amirli, halting a blockade enforced by Islamic State insurgents that lasted for more than two months.

“Representatives of OPEC countries have been surprisingly quiet following the $10-per-barrel drop in oil prices over the last two months,” Bloomberg quotes a today report by Vienna-based JBC Energy GmbH.

October-delivery Brent lost as much as 37 cents to trade at $102.82 per barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It exchanged at $103.05 as of 10:30 am in London. The volume of all futures traded was around 52% lower than the average for the past 100 days for this time of the day. Prices sank 2.7% in August and 5.6% in July, the longest period of declines since the one that ended in May last year. The future has plunged 7% so far this year.

October-delivery WTI declined as much as 44 cents to $95.52 per barrel in digital trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent oil exchanged at a premium of $7.42 to the US benchmark crude on the ICE, relative to $7.23 on Aug. 29, which was the thinnest closing ratio since Aug. 14.

Nigeria, Angola and Saudi Arabia led increase in output among OPEC countries last month following improved security, end of field maintenance practices and as fresh deposits came online.

According to Reuters, there is more than sufficient oil supply to address consumption, encouraging pumping into reserves and shrinking prices.


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