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Kenyan Forex Trader Requests the Government to Create Regulatory Framework

By Forexminute - Yashu Gola | Forex Industry News | Aug 16, 2014 2:21AM BST




A Kenyan forex trader is petitioning the government to roll out rules governing the forex industry in order to shield participants from extortion by law enforcement officials.

Officials of VIP Portal Incorporated complained that police extorted and generally harassed them for operating illegally yet there is no law to guide their operations, reported Kenyan newspaper, the Standard.

“Let the Government assist us by introducing regulations that will guide how we operate. We should not be branded a pyramid scheme and accused of illegally operating unregistered forex bureau when there is no law that guides us,” INC’s director Charles Njuguna told the press in a hotel in the capital of Nairobi.

Mr. Njuguna said the presence of a clear regulatory framework will boost the electronic forex industry in the country. Kenya’s is the biggest economy in East and Central Africa, with sophisticated financial industry. It also the most prolific country in terms of the use of mobile money, thanks to the innovative Mpesa mobile money transfer platform.
Mr. Njuguna requested the government to support liquidity providers who will link with the online trading platform and supply direct market feeds. He insisted that his company is a registered ECN FX broker that caters to 8,000 individual and corporate clients. Mr. Njuguna also detailed how some law enforcement officers had extorted the company’s CEO 2 million Kenya Shillings (roughly $23,000) for operating an illegal business, something that was reported to high-ranking police officers.

He also lamented that the company’s bank accounts were frozen with at least 8 million shillings (roughly $92,000) after the firm was called a pyramid scheme (Ponzi scheme). Banks were also told not to carry out any transactions with the company, added Njuguna.

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Over time, we have hearing about major online retails and businesses’ plans to accept cryptocurrencies as payments. While some of them have already started to accept them as one, few are still planning the revolutionary integrations. eBay is counted among the latters which have been monitoring Bitcoin’s growing adaption from a long time. And now, it has cleared its stance on the matter.

As confirmed by The Wall Street Journal, the ecommerce shark is reportedly meeting several Bitcoin payment processing companies in regards to integrate the digital currency payments on its subsidiary Braintree.
Braintree was acquired by eBay last year in an expensive deal worth $800 million. This payment processing platform is also providing services for other websites including the likes of Github and Uber. This simply means that any sort of Bitcoin integration into Braintree would make its payment options available on multiple online companies. But there are few obstacles as well.

It is speculated that most of the eBay’s meetings with multiple Bitcoin payment processing companies have concluded into nothing. The ecommerce company however is speculated to reach an agreement with Coinbase, as per the WSJ has written in its report. Coinbase currently handles the Bitcoin services of some of the world’s major companies like Dell, Dish, Overstock, Reddit and Expedia.

In the end, the most ultimate hope here is the integration of Bitcoin on eBay and PayPal. There have been numerous reports early regarding this agreement. However, both the companies have always shied away from revealing their plans on the superbly growing Bitcoin. eBay’s decision meanwhile adds some more points to the expanding Bitcoin economy and injects positivity for some really great news in future.


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Short-term Shift: Last week, there was a shift in the outlook for gold price, from a technical perspective. Essentially the technical picture for gold in the 1H and 4H charts turned from bullish to bearish/neutral. The outlook on the daily chart remains sideways. Let’s first take a look at the 1H chart:



Signals in the 1H chart: Last week’s consolidation at first held the prevailing bullish momentum as the 1H RSI reading tagged above 70, and held above 40 on the dips. However, this all changed on Friday, when price fell sharply. Gold price*was also trading above the 200-hour SMA throughout the week, that is until Friday. Now, the RSI has tagged below 30, and even 20, while price has fallen below the 200-hour SMA. After a brief short-squeeze, traders respected the 200-hour SMA as resistance, and essentially treated the broken triangle as a price top.
At least in the short-term, the outlook has shifted from bullish to bearish. The 4H chart also shows a shift:



Bulls Losing Grip: You can see that gold started August with a break above a falling*wedge. This was accompanied by price pushing above a cluster of moving averages and the RSI pushing above 70. However, by the end of last week, price fell back below the cluster of moving averages, and the RSI failed to hold above 40, which is a sign that it lost the bullish momentum.

While bulls gold-bulls might be losing grip as evidenced in the 4H and 1H chart, it is still not clear if bears will take over. Looking at the 4H chart, you can see that price instead of a bearish market, gold might just be in a sideways market, especially if price does not break below a slightly rising trendline from the beginning of August. A break below 1290 might be needed to introduce a more bearish outlook.
At this point, a break above 1310 will reflect gold-bears losing grip. Whichever way you look at it, gold is neutral in the medium-term, a mode*that gold’s*daily chart suggests as well.





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Double Top vs. Rising Trendline: USD/CAD formed a double top last week, as you can see in the 4H chart. The double top looks like a price top that would suggest a period of bearish correction against the prevailing uptrend. However, with price unable to clearly break below a month-long rising trendline from July, the bullish trend is still in play.
The 4H RSI flirted going below 40, but it looks like it is still holding above this level, which means bullish momentum is still in play.

USD/CAD 4H Chart


Pennant, Bullish Continuation Scenario: Instead of looking at the USD/CAD’s price action structure in August as a double top, we can also look at it as a pennant pattern. That means, a break back above 1.09 and above the pennant resistance would be a bullish continuation signal, that first opens up the 1.0985 August high. Then, the 1.1053 high from April will be in sight.

USD/CAD Daily Chart


Bullish Bias: While the 4H RSI is struggling to hold above 40, the daily RSI has recently tagged 70, and thus is still bullish. The RSI is now neutral in the daily chart, so there is still room to the upside from a momentum perspective.
The daily chart also shows price tagging the 200- and 100-day SMAs and holding so far as support. This fact maintains a bullish bias.
Breakouts: At this point a break above 1.09 might start a bullish continuation, but a break below 1.0860 can extend the bearish correction scenario, but that should be limited to 1.08 for now because that’s where the 50-day SMA resides, and was a support pivot during the 7/27 consolidation.
If the bearish scenario prevails, we should also look at the daily RSI. If the RSI starts to hold above 40, be ready for a bullish attempt.


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Neutral-Bullish: Gold has been trading sideways in 2014, and continues to do so here in August. The daily chart shows a triangle pattern forming. The RSI has been clustered together. You can argue that there is still some bullish bias remaining after the latest rally in June form 1240 to about 1340. Since then, the RSI popped above 70 and has held above 40, which reflects maintenance of the bullish momentum. Also price has pushed above the 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving average (SMAs). So far price has not broken below them, and a bullish slingshot signal could still be in play.
If price can hold north of 1300, gold will be neutral-slightly bullish. Still a break above 1330 might needed to break above the triangle and open up a bullish outlook for the medium-term. But for now, all directional outlooks should be limited to the short-term.

Gold Daily Chart 8/18


Bearish: While gold has a neutral to bullish bias, silver is bearish. It also rallied in June, but you can see that price has since broke below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs. The RSI has broken below 40 to show loss of bullish momentum. The latest bearish candle from last Friday opened up further downside because it showed the moving averages as resistance, and is thus a part of a bearish slingshot signal. The outlook in the short to medium term is bearish, but the mode in 2014 has been neutral, so the outlook is neutral-bearish. The bearish component for silver, is more significant than the bullish component in gold.

For the bearish bearish outlook, we can start seeing support around 19.00 which is a common low. The 2014-low at 18.64 would also be in sight.

Silver Daily chart 8/18




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Potential Pullback Buying Opportunity for TSLA Shares – Aug 20, 2014

By Forexminute - Jonathan Millet | Stock Tips | Aug 20, 2014 4:38AM BST




TSLA shares have traded at new highs above the $250/share level earlier in the month and is showing signs of retracing. The uptrend is strong on the daily chart but the stock could use a pickup in buying pressure.
Price could pull back to the previous peak near the $240/share level before resuming its climb. This is close to the 50 simple moving average, which has acted as support for price action since June. A sharper pullback could last until the previous lows near the $220/share mark for TSLA shares.

TSLA Shares Outlook

From there, a return of buyers could push TSLA shares to new highs, possibly until the $280-300/share levels, depending on the company’s prospects. A reversal, on the other hand, might lead to a move back to $200/share or until the 200 simple moving average.

MACD is reflecting weaker buying momentum at the moment, confirming that a retracement is likely. This could be a chance for buyers to go long TSLA shares at better prices and take advantage of the longer-term uptrend. RSI is also heading lower, indicating that sellers are in control for now.

Bear in mind that TSLA shares are up by 75% year-to-date, confirming plenty of upward momentum in the past few months. Recent earnings reports showed that the company is operating around breakeven but its valuation is still high as it holds a stable balance sheet.

Tesla’s gigafactory is also adding support to TSLA shares and company prospects for now, as many stock analysts believe that this sector could boom.*“No other region in the country offers you the opportunity to produce batteries for the cars of the future with so much renewable energy potential,” said US Representative Raul Ruiz on Tesla’s battery factory.

Prices for lithium batteries have surged thanks to the introduction of smartphones and the search for longer battery life. Tesla is taking this to the next level by introducing batteries for cars and their output might be even more positive for TSLA shares.


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Bitcoin adaption although have started to surface within just a year of its launch, but the coin rose to fame only when major companies started to integrate it as well. As per this hour, the world’s leading companies like Dell, Expedia, Dish Networks and Overstock have adapted Bitcoin as one of its payment methods.

However, the aforementioned companies introduced Bitcoin payment options within a limited territories – mostly inside the United States. Before adapting a new payment technology, they sure wanted to try-and-test the digital currency in a real world scenario. But it is Overstock eventually, which took a leap of faith in Bitcoin and made an altogether unique announcement on August 19th.

Reportedly, the renowned American online retailing company decided to expand its Bitcoin payment services for international customers as well, along with the US customers it was already serving. Following this announcement, Overstock has become the first major retailer to actually distribute its Bitcoin operations on a global scale.

Speaking of numbers, it is revealed that Overstock still receive only 1% of purchasing orders whose transactions are made in Bitcoin. This means, the company conducts only $12,000 to $16,000 worth transactions in Bitcoin per day. But if one is to believe the Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne, these numbers are likely to be increased by the end of this year.
The man had earlier predicted that the Bitcoin sales will add at least a 4% per share benefit to the store’s current stock rate. Following the prediction, he has also showed his optimism towards Bitcoin sales crossing the minimum of $6 million by 2014. “Bitcoin saves us so much money that we want to help the community,” he further said while promising to fund Bitcoin foundations with 4% of Bitcoin sales.

But now with Overstock opening its door for international customers, Patrick’s prediction might actually come close to being true, or might even surpass it. To conclude in the end, we can just say that this one retailer seems to be having a great time with Satoshi Nakamoto’s jinn.


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AUDUSD has been in a steady downtrend as the latest test of the falling trend channel resistance is showing downside FX momentum. This marks the third impulse wave lower, which might last until the bottom of the channel at the .9150 minor psychological level.

Earlier in today’s Asian trading session, the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for China showed weaker than expected results, leading to more FX momentum for a selloff. However, stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, suggesting that buyers could take control of price action for now.

AUDUSD FX Momentum Signals

A few days back, the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes came in less dovish than expected and boosted the Australian dollar to the top of its range against the US dollar. However, the FX momentum of the downtrend was retained, as risk sentiment remained weak.

In addition, the latest FOMC minutes added to buying FX momentum for the US dollar. The report showed that policymakers are already considering tightening monetary policy sooner than initially anticipated. They acknowledged the strong pickup in hiring in June and the above-average gains in the non-farm payrolls report for the second quarter of the year.

Of course policymakers still noted that there are several remaining economic risks for the time being, and the upcoming testimony of Fed Chairperson Yellen in the Jackson Hole Symposium could shed more light on the FOMC’s plans. Indications that they are biased towards hiking interest rates early next year could add to the FX momentum for dollar gains.

On the other hand, if Yellen sounds less upbeat than expected, the dollar might be forced to return some of its recent gains, pushing AUDUSD up to the top of the range again around the .9300 major psychological resistance. This might continue to hold as resistance if the downtrend is strong enough.


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AUD/JPY just broke into fresh highs on the year during the 8/21 session after consolidating since April. AUD/JPY’s price action in 2014 can be described as bullish in Q1, then neutral since Q2 after price hit a high around 96.50.
You can say that price has been in a sideways market, or you*can also say that it was in*an ascending triangle. The most important thing in the daily chart is that during this multi-month consolidation, price preserved the bullish bias by staying above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Also, the daily RSI has held for the most part above 40 – a sign that bullish momentum is maintained. Even if you argue that it broke below 40 in May, it at least held above 30, which shows lack of bearish momentum.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart 8/22



The daily RSI is now pushing towards 70, but it has not reached it, so there is still room to run up before traders see an overbought condition in the daily chart.
The next resistance pivot is at 97.43, the Feb. 2013 high. Above that we are looking at the 99.95-100.00 pivot. The weekly chart shows that the market is bullish indeed, based on the 200-, 100-, and 50- weekly SMAs – in bullish alignment, with price trading above them.
The RSI reading also affirms bullish momentum, as it*has held above 40 for the most part since 2013 after it tagged above 70 and even 80.

AUD/JPY Weekly Chart 8/22


Buy on a Dip? With upside towards at least 97.40, traders might be considering a buy on a dip for strategy, for example if*AUD/JPY slides back to 96.00.
A break below 95.00 might shelve this bullish outlook and put the AUD/JPY back into consolidation mode. So at 96.00, you have barely a 1.5:1 reward to risk based on a conservative outlook to 97.50. A slightly more aggressive bullish projection to 100.00 would give a 4:1 Reward to Risk. So our R:R is probably just good enough if we plan to buy on the dip around 96.00.


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Saxo Bank Announces H1 2014 Trading Metrics, India’s FX Reserves Surge

By Forexminute - Yashu Gola | Forex Industry News | Aug 23, 2014 4:06AM BST




Leading financial firm Saxo Bank Group reported mixed performance in the first half of 2014 owing to low volatility in FX markets. However, the firm rolled out new products while clients’ deposits rose by DKK 9.7 billion to a new high of DKK 60.3 billion.

The company announced a net income of DKK 156 million in the first half of 2014, with revenues totaling DKK 1.35 billion while clients’ collateral deposits rose to DKK 60.3 billion from DKK 9.7 billion.
While revenues were 20 percent higher in the first half of 2014 compared with second quarter revenues in the same period, the figures were still a significant decline from first quarter, where figures were DKK 1.75 billion, a drop of 22 percent, while net profit fell 41.3 percent from DKK 266 million YoY. However, performance is still good compared to H2 2013.

The firm notes that total assets rose to DKK 29.8 billion by June 2014 compared with DKK 27.7 billion at December 2013, a growth of 8 percent, which was mostly due to growth in deposits valued at DKK 2.2 billion.

Meanwhile, India’s foreign exchange reserves grew by $43.3 million in the week through August 15 to $319.39 billion, a report published on Friday by the Reserve Bank of India showed. Foreign currency assets, a key part of the reserves, jumped $54.7 million to $292.10 billion. Gold reserves held intact throughout the week, reported the Business Standard.
In the week under consideration, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) declined $8.3 million to $4.42 billion. India’s reserve position at the International Monetary Fund fell $3.1 million to $1.70 billion.


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