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Bitcoin Charts Analysis: Price to Hang between 350 and 365

By Forexminute - Yashu Gola | Bitcoin | Nov 22, 2014 6:51PM GMT




After rallying from 320 to 453 at the start of this month, the Bitcoin price retreated last week to the month’s low at 351, after breaking through a number of key supporting levels. However there were some near-term bullish corrections during the 11/21 and 11/22 trading sessions, where price surged from 350 to 365 amidst a moderate buying pressure around the bottom. As Bitcoin market enters another week of possible bearish rallies, we try to predict its future movements on two near time intervals.

BTC/USD 1-H Chart


As you can see the chart above, the Bitcoin price is still above the 5-, 20- and 50-SMA while the RSI is somewhere around 52-55, indicating a neutral-bearish sentiment in the market. The reason is the strong selling pressure around the resistance level of 365 which lies somewhere near the buying threshold. In this case, either the price is poised to consolidate sideways or downwards in the absence of strong bullish sentiments.

BTC/USD 4-H Chart


On 4-H charts, the BTC/USD is currently trending in a moderate selling zone, below the 20- and 50-SMA lines with RSI nearing 40-43. It indicates a near-term bearish movements in the next few hours, with little bullish corrections expected in between. There the price would want to test 350 as the key support level, thanks to a strong buying zone around that level. At the same time, any major break below the aforementioned support will open price to a strong bearish channel, where the next bottom is expected to be in between 320 and 340.

Overall Market Mood

For the next 48 hours, the Bitcoin price is expected to consolidate sideways between a strong support and resistance level of 350 and 365. At this point, the pressure would be more on bears to break price below the 350-wall. If this happens, the next-in-sight resistance would be between 340 and 320. On the contrary, if the price breaks above the 365 resistance level, the pressure would be on bulls to keep the trend at least neutral. On if the price breaks the 370-mark, it can enter into a moderate bullish correction period, with a short-term upside risk around 400.




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Last 24 hours in the cryptocurrency market have been somewhat optimistic in terms of trends. While Bitcoin is advancing cautiously after retreating from the two-week’s low of 350, altcoins including Dogecoin and Darkcoin are too showing upward price movements amid a near-term bullish correction. Litecoin, on the other hand, is repeating Bitcoin’s steps, trending sideways amid low trading volume and ask/bid calls.

In the meantime, Ripple has surged massively over the last week in a process of excessive pumping. While it is obvious that the bounce is poised to meet with an equally enthralling drop, the reasons behind this all-of-a-sudden optimism is being credited to the adoption of cryptocurrencies by German banks (as per some Ripplers). We wonder why these optimistic sentiments are not boosting the Bitcoin price as well. Moral of the story: Stay away from Ripple if you are a serious trader.

BTC/USD


On the 4H BitStamp Chart, the BTC/USD opened at 352 during the 11/22 trading session in an oversold territory, followed with a price correction that took the price to the supposed key-resistance level of 365. There the price was almost in sync with the daily moving averages, but fell a little below the line as the bearish sentiment grew nominally. It clearly indicates the lack of buying pressure around the 365-support level, because of which the price stayed in a bearish range for the next few hours, the RSI meanwhile being near 42-45, further indicating a bearish sentiment in the 4H chart.

At this point of time, the 350-level stands as an important barrier between a near-term sideways and long-term bearish sentiment. Any attempt to break below this particular support level could incite the price back to test October’s bottom of 318. The price currently is trading below every simple and exponential moving average, and is poised to stay there in the absence of notable buying orders.

LTC/USD


Litecoin is tailing Bitcoin price movements, with similar ups and downs over the last week. The scenario only changes in terms of number. The LTC/USD, on the 4H BTC-e charts, is treating 3.45 as the key support level, and a strong bullish zone as well. If the price attempts to break below it, then it might want to test the 3.33-3.35 to pullback the price toward a near-term bullish correction. The overall market sentiment at this point of time remains to be bearish, as the price is below every simple and exponential moving average, with RSI hanging around 37-40.


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Silver has been consolidating in November since falling to a fresh low on the year at 15.05 as we can see on the 4H chart. It has since built a price bottom when it rallied above the 15.90 resistance pivot. It has since showed loss of bearish bias as price started to hold above the broken resistance as support, and above the 100-, and 50-period SMAs as support as well. The RSI has pushed above 60, which shows loss of bearish momentum.

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H chart 11/24


The 4H chart shows that price is sin another consolidation range above the 15.90 resistance turned support. However, price seems to be pushing above this range, threatening to push above the 200-period SMA as well. We know that before November, price has been bearish and making new lows on the year. So, if we get another bullish push, where is the next key resistance?

Key Resistance: When we look at the daily chart, we can see that the next key resistance is around the 17.00 psychological level. It is reinforced by a falling trendline coming down from the 21.57 July high. There is a previous support pivot here, and the 50-day SMA resides around here as well. If price stalls around 17 and the daily RSI stalls around 60, get ready for a bearish continuation attempt.

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart 11/24


Bearish Continuation Test:
The first stop down that might test the resolve of the bears will be in the 15.80-16.00 area. Below that, price is likely to test the 15.00-15.05 low with risk of falling lower in continuation*of the prevailing downtrend which remains intact if price remains below the 17.00 handle.

Shifting to a Sideways Market:
If price breaks above 17.00, we are likely going to enter a significant period of consolidation, or a medium-term sideways market with upside risk toward 18.50-19.00. This is likely going to be choppy, so there will be dips as well, but if price did break above 17.00, we should keep the bearish outlook limited to 15.80-16.00 giving it a more likelihood to hold because the prevailing downtrend would have been violated.


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EBAY stock has been on a strong climb recently but may be due to head back south soon, as price is nearing the top of its range on the daily chart. At the same time, the simple moving averages are criss-crossing, which suggests range-bound market behavior.

MACD is indicating overbought conditions, which suggests that sellers could push EBAY stock back down sooner or later. Price could still pop up to the top of the range around the $57/share level. RSI is also indicating a pickup in selling pressure, as the oscillator is already making its way down from the overbought area.

EBAY Stock Outlook

A selloff from the current levels or the resistance at $57/share might push EBAY stock back down to the previous lows at $48/share. A weaker decline might last only until the nearby support zone at $52/share, just around the moving averages.
News that the company has been pulled from the AppStore weighed on EBAY stock prices recently, as this could mean fewer revenue sources. Apparently, Ebay is rethinking its delivery plans, which might not necessarily be in line with Apple’s services.

According to an eBay spokesperson, the eBay Now service is “moving to core.” That is, the service will no longer exist as a standalone application but will instead be folded into eBay’s main mobile app and website.

Bear in mind though that several big-name retailers such as*The Home Depot, Target, Macy’s, GNC, Walgreens, Best Buy, Toys R Us, Office Depot, Urban Outfitters, RadioShack and AutoZone have signed up to participate in eBay’s e-commerce platform, which could also be a reason for EBAY stock to keep climbing.

An upside break past the year’s highs around $57/share could mean more gains for EBAY stock moving forward, as this could lead to a test of $60/share before the end of the year.


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Upside Break and Momentum on Facebook Shares – Nov 27, 2014



Facebook shares finally showed more movement, after close to a month of consolidation around the $74/share area. Price broke to the upside and rallied past the 50 simple moving average, hinting at further gains.
MACD is also suggesting that the upside momentum could pick up, as the oscillator is moving out of the oversold area. If so,*Facebook shares could move up to the previous highs around the $80/share level before it gapped down back in October.

Facebook Shares Forecast

A near-term resistance level might also hold around $77/share and lead to the formation of a head and shoulders pattern. This is a classic reversal signal and might send Facebook shares much lower to the 200 simple moving average, which has held as a dynamic support area.

Further gains past $80/share, however, would indicate that buying pressure has picked up for Facebook shares. Bear in mind though that a top Facebook exec recently sold all his Facebook shares and raked in $1.5 million in the process. This follows a line of Facebook executives recently liquidating all their holdings as well.

News that the company is expecting a 55%-75% increase in expenses next year was enough to convince some investors to sell their existing stock, as profits*might take a hit. Stockholders are also unsure if the company’s recent investments, which include the acquisition of WhatsApp, will soon pay off.

Facebook has also recently acquired Instagram and virtual reality company Oculus. The company is already showing*signs of rolling out location-based mobile ads, which could be a strong revenue source. However, should these fail to get monetized, company stock*could fall to the $74/share level or lower.

A drop below $74/share could push Facebook shares down to the next support area at $68/share, which is a tad below the 200 SMA. Further declines below this could eventually lead to a test of $65/share support.


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On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed at record highs in the quiet preholiday session of trading.

The Dow climbed 0.1% or 12.81 points to 17,827.71 while the S&P 500 Index gained 0.3% or 5.8 points to 2,071.83, marking its 47^th 2014 closing high. The Dow, blue-chip index, pushed into positive territory the last trading hour, notching the 30^th record close of 2014.
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.6% or 29.07 points to 4,787.32.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the improving US economic data and the upbeat corporate earnings have assisted in propelling the US stocks to series of record highs. The data that was released this week indicated a 3.9% growth in the US economy in Q3, which was higher than the 3.5% initial estimate.

Chief investment officer at broker dealer LPL Financial, Burt White said, “The US economy is progressing nicely. We don’t see the data today derailing that view.”

According to BBC, figures of the Commerce Department indicated orders for the non-defense capital goods, which excluded aircrafts as having dropped 1.3% in October.

Separate figures from the Commerce Department showed that consumer spending rose 0.2% in October, and this is a key factor behind the economic growth of the US.

US Bank Wealth Management chief equity strategist, Terry Sandven said, “Consumer spending is key to drive the equity market higher.”
US economic data on Wednesday showed weak readings on the home sales. New home sales climbed 0.7% in October to the annual rate of 458,000. Economists had expected a 470,000 pace last month.

The index of pending sales of homes has also dropped unexpectedly.

Chief investment officer of equities at Charles Schwab Investment Management, Omar Aguilar said, “The housing market continues to be the only question mark.”

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped 2.234%. The yields are dropping with increase in prices.


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Takafumi Horie, Japanese Entrepreneur Says Bitcoin is Route to More Security, Less Government




Japanese saw their local Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox failing this year; they have not yet forgotten the moment it lost their investments. However, Takafumi Horie, the Japanese entrepreneur believes that the digital currency is still a route to more security and less government. Coming from a successful entrepreneur and investor, the statement is being analyzed by experts.

Takafumi Horie is a renowned Japanese entrepreneur who founded Livedoor, a website design operation that grew into a popular internet portal; however, he was arrested and charged with securities fraud in 2006. This, however, does not mean he is any lesser strategist and meaner investor; the opinion regarding Bitcoin is definitely the one that is important.

According to Horie Bitcoin innovations are important and crucial for lesser and smaller governments. His opinion came to public view when he published book “No Need for Nations Anymore” wherein he discussed this topic with journalist Soichiro Tahara. He elaborated the need for smaller government and what role the digital currency can play in it.

He says that he heard that Bitcoin have rivaled the main currencies in parts of the world that have faced currency crisis, like Cyprus and Argentina and according to him the Bitcoin phenomenon is not just a digital currency trend. He adds that its innovative technology, a combination of the block chain and public and private keys, requires no central authority.

Bitcoin May Reduce the Functions of the State

Horie admits that people are sending currency information called Bitcoin; however, it doesn’t have to be currency information and according to him it could be real estate contract data, IOUs or equity returns. Thus, according to Horie the data could even include election ballots whose records are kept in a block chain open to public scrutiny.

His book is not limited to Bitcoin and disruptive technologies; however, a lot of focus has been on the digital currency as according to Horie it can play pivotal role in forming a smaller government and help in privatizing most of the functions of the state including the issuing of the fiat which has been manipulated to great extent.

Nevertheless, Horie who spent 21 months behind bars until last March after being convicted of falsifying Livedoor’s financial results for the business year to September 2004 admits that his experience creating a social networking service app for smartphones called 755 and the Antenna news magazine curation app, etc. are part of disruptive technology.



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Last 24 hours in the cryptocurrency market were strongly satisfying thanks to the much-celebrated ‘Bitcoin Black Friday’ event. The day reportedly saw a substantial increase in the demand of Bitcoin, which subsequently reflected in its rising price as well. However, some little selling during the 11/29 trading session brought the price down near the daily moving average of 4H BTC/USD chart.

In the meantime, Litecoin also displayed a similar price movement, though in a congested, less-volatile way. Other main altcoins – Darkcoin, Dogecoin, NXT and Ripple – however seemed overshadowed by the Bitcoin’s popularity in last couple of days. They all fell notably ever since the Bitcoin Black Friday event initiated.

BTC/USD


On 4H BitStamp chart, the BTC/USD opened at 375 during the 11/29 trading session, after bouncing back from the presumed support level of 360-362 the previous day. The uptrend lived only until the hype surrounding Bitcoin Black Friday lived. Upon hitting 384 in an overbought territory, the BTC/USD pulled back amid peak selling and is now trending sideways in 375-377 area, right above the daily moving average.

The price is currently above the 200-, 50- and 20-hours simple moving averages (SMAs), while is a little below the 100-hour one. At the same time, the RSI is holding around 51, indicating a neutral-bullish scenario in this low trading Sunday. In case the bullish outlook resumes, the price might want to attempt breaking the key resistance level around 385-390. In this case, the next upside risk will be towards 400.

However, if any selling inspires the price to go below the near-term SMAs, then the support/resistance area will be found around the 350-360 area. Any attempt to break below the 350-mark will open the possibilities of a long-term bearish outlook, sighting last month’s 320 as the bottom.

LTC/USD


Litecoin, meanwhile, is looking near-term bullish. At this point of time on 4H BTC-e chart, the LTC/USD is trading above the 50-, 20-, and 10-hours SMAs, while RSI is somewhere near 51. This indicates a little inclination towards north, with foots near the current sideways zone of 3.53-3.54. In case it happens, the pressure would be on 3.65 to hold the price in a consolidation range. If LTC/USD breaks above the aforementioned barrier, then a strong bullish scenario will come into view, testing 3.95 as the next key resistance level.

In case the price falls below the aforementioned SMAs, the price is likely to test 3.50 as the next bottom where a certain bounce back will be expected.


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Amazon stocks might be in for more gains, as price just recently broke through a key resistance zone. Price just closed a few days above the 200 simple moving average, which had been acting as a dynamic resistance level for Amazon stocks.
MACD is still heading higher, indicating that there’s buying momentum present and may be enough to sustain the rally for Amazon stocks. Further gains could take the price up to $350/share or around the previous highs at $365/share.

Amazon Stocks Outlook

Bear in mind though that the 50 SMA is still moving below the 200 SMA, which means that the longer-term downtrend hasn’t been broken. An upward SMA crossover could confirm that an uptrend is taking hold, although this signal might take a bit longer to materialize.

RSI is climbing but is almost in the overbought zone. This could lead sellers to take control of price action in Amazon stocks soon and possibly trigger a retest of the broken resistance area around the $325/share levels. A sharper selloff might lead to a drop until the 50 SMA, which is around $315/share at the moment. A break below this area could mean a test of the $300/share psychological support is in the cards.

There’s also an area of interest located at the $315-320/share area, which might hold as near-term support for Amazon stocks. A bounce from this region could keep the price in range or on track to rally further.

Amazon announced that they would be unveiling new deals every ten minutes all week. This does not include “Deals of the Day” and “Lightening Deals” available on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.


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U.S. home mortgage applications dropped last week while applications for refinancing also declined, reported the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The MBA’s index of mortgage application activity, which tracks both home purchase demand and refinancing, plunged 7.3 percent for the week through Nov. 28.

The seasonally-adjusted gauge of applications for refinancing dropped 13.4 percent, while the index of mortgage applications, a key indicator of home sales, advanced 2.5 percent.

The rates for the 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 4.08 percent on average last week, its weakest level since May 2013. The rates plunged seven basis points or 0.07 percentage points from 4.15 percent a week earlier.

The MBA survey tracks at least 75 percent of all U.S. refinancing and home mortgage applications.
Meanwhile, the U.S. services industry grew more than forecasted in November despite a drop in the employment index. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its services gauge increased to 59.3 last month. This is near the post-recession peak of 59.6 that was touched in August, and compares favorably against October’s reading of 57.1.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a reading of 57.5. A measure exceeding 50 shows that economic activity expanded. Two out of the ten constituents of the poll, imports and employment, dropped from October, though they still stood above the 50 mark.
The component of business activity increased to 64.4 compared with October’s figure of 60, while the new orders gauge rose to 61.4 from 59.1. The prices paid component increased to 54.4 in November, compared with October’s reading of 52.1.


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