The euro continues to flip-flop from one week to the next; it’s strong, it’s weak, it’s strong, and so on. What does this mean? Immediately, it means very little as EUR/USD could still be in a topping process around the 2008 trend-line or building a bull-flag setting it up for an eventual continuation of the rally starting last year. Either way, we need to wait for confirmation before committing ourselves too strongly. The topping scenario ...
Crude Oil Inventory Data Shows Rising Output and Inventories Recently, data from the EIA showed a rise in US stockpiles after excessive declines through H2 2017. Typically, a rise in stockpiles wouldn’t offer too much concern except that US production rose to a record high. Earlier this week, the EIA Drilling Productivity Report highlighted US shale production as likely to increase further in April to a record high 6.95mm bpd. This data will act as a cloud preventing further bullishness ...
USD/JPY has now fallen to levels not seen since late 2016 before Dollar’s ‘Trump trade’ bounce, which came as markets got used to the shock election of the current US President. Moreover, there are few obvious signs that a turnaround is in sight. The pair is certainly lower now that it was then, but it seems to be making a moderate attempt to base around the 105.40 area which has held for the past four days or so. As you can see from the ...
EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails. The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into motion the notion we may be seeing a top form at an important line of resistance. And now with ...
Over the past couple of week’s we’ve been following a rather pensive test of a long-term support zone in EUR/JPY. Throughout most of last year, EUR/JPY remained in a bullish trend that kept some very clean characteristics; key of which was what happened around the October ECB rate decision. This is when the ECB extended their stimulus program, disappointing the hopes that had built for some type of announcement around taper or stimulus exit. This led ...
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