USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 50.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.0 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 5.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 6.8% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. ...
Last week, EUR/USD traded relatively in-line with our tempered expectations – the euro chopped around with little net effect for the week as the ECB-driven move from the Thursday before took time to digest. Overall, a second test of significant support held this past week, keeping sellers at bay for the time-being. Will one side or the other win-out in the days ahead, or will it be another week-long bout of choppy price action? The thinking in this corner is that there will be a little more ...
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 72.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 20 when GBPUSD traded near 1.41803; price has moved 7.0% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.0% higher than yesterday and 4.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.1% lower than yesterday and 14.2% lower from last week. We typically ...
On Thursday, the ECB's cautious stance on the removal of monetary stimulus sent EUR/USD down sharply, the biggest move in recent memory. This has price support running back to 2015 and the January 2017 trend-line squarely under assault again. The thinking on this end is that we will see some backing-and-filling in the days ahead as the market digests the impact of Thursday's outcome. This could make for less-than-ideal trading conditions ...
Lately, the DAX has been displaying messy price action, see-sawing back-and-forth with few clues as to what all the chop may mean. There is, however, one possibly bearish sequence developing should a lower-high maintain and continue along the path of building of a bear-flag. The bear-flag, if that is the eventual outcome, is arriving at an interesting spot given the underside parallel of the pattern is also the trend-line rising up from the March low. A break of the pattern would then have trend ...
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