The euro continues to flip-flop from one week to the next; it’s strong, it’s weak, it’s strong, and so on. What does this mean? Immediately, it means very little as EUR/USD could still be in a topping process around the 2008 trend-line or building a bull-flag setting it up for an eventual continuation of the rally starting last year. Either way, we need to wait for confirmation before committing ourselves too strongly. The topping scenario ...
EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails. The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into motion the notion we may be seeing a top form at an important line of resistance. And now with ...
The Euro has paused to digest losses after touching the lowest level in a month against the US Dollar but overall positioning hints further weakness is ahead. The single currency appeared to mark a top below the 1.26 figure last week having broken the series of higher highs and lows set from early January. From here, a daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2162 opens the door for a challenge of the 1.2046-70 area (50% level, ...
Is the euro there yet; that is, has it arrived at a point where it could undergo a correction, or worse? It’s certainly in an area where a turnaround could develop. There is a trend-line running down from the top in 2008, clocking in around the current vicinity to a little higher. For a time-frame this long, you need to pull out the monthly chart and use a crayon versus a pencil to draw the trend-line. When you look at this way, then EUR/USD is trading up against a critical spot near the 12600-handle. ...
The euro concluded the first week of the year effectively where it started, with see-saw price action dominating trade. The indecision comes as no surprise given where it is currently trading. Last year’s high arriving around the 2012 low led to a fairly lengthy correction. EUR/USD will need to break above 12092 to further along its move higher. The channel dating back to mid-December keeps the near-term bullish trend structure intact. ...
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