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USD/JPY M5: 54 pips range price movement by Bank of Japan Gov Kuroda Speech news event

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by , 09-05-2016 at 08:46 AM (1238 Views)
      
   
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  • There are limits to what BOJ can do in the sense it cannot underwrite debt due to legal constraints
  • Don't share view that monetary policy is reaching its limits
  • Even within current framework there is ample room for further easing
  • First issue to analyze is what factors have hampered achievement of price target
  • What we should bear in mind when conducting monetary policy is not its limit but comparison between its benefits and costs
  • Negative rates have had impact on mkt liquidity, banks' profits, so need to assess this policy
  • Given we have been implementing large-scale monetary easing, any additional easing entails costs
  • We should not hesitate to go ahead with monetary easing as long as it's necessary for Japan's economy as a whole
  • A reduction in level of monetary policy accommodation will not be considered in comprehensive review
  • Balance between benefits and costs of monetary easing can change depending on situation
  • Monetary policy should be conducted in a flexible manner
  • Comprehensive review is conducted with aim of achieving 2 pct price target at earliest possible time
  • There maybe a situation where drastic measures are warranted even though they could entail costs
  • BOJ should always prepare policy options to address situations where drastic measures are warranted
  • Corporate profits are expected to decrease slightly this fiscal year but remain high
  • BOJ's September comprehensive review won't lead to discussions that could lead to tapering of monetary easing
  • Employment and incomes have improved significantly
  • Japan is no longer in deflation
  • Negative rate policy so far seems to have succeeded in lowering funding costs of firms, households
  • It is unquestionable that BOJ's QQE with negative rates have contributed significantly to turnaround in economy
  • Japan not in situation where financial intermediary functions are impaired from negative rate policy
  • Potential impact on financial intermediation, banks' profits needs to be taken into account in assessing effectiveness of negative rates
  • Impact of negative rates on financial intermediation can vary depending on duration of this policy
  • Substantial oil price declines, weakness in private consumption and slowdown in emerging economies had negative impact on achieving price target
  • For the time being observed inflation is unlikely to accelrate



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