mql5

• In a vote to leave, GBP would come under significant pressure, while risk currencies (CHF and JPY) benefit. Potential policy responses limit the degree of strength. We expect the effects on EUR/USD to be relatively muted.
• The payout for Bonds is asymmetric. In a vote to remain, yields would rise but not significantly, and mostly in the Euro-area core. Upon “Leave”, the path of least resistance is for yields to drop substantially, especially in the UK & the US.
• The bond yield/policy cushion, combined with the healthy distance from the macro shock, implies less downside for the S&P than for the FTSE or Eurostoxx upon "Leave". Upon "Remain", the S&P could plausibly make fresh highs.
• Euro-area periphery yields and corporate credit spreads have significant room to widen in a decision to leave, although temporarily perhaps before a policy response is triggered. The upside is capped in an event to "stay".
• Risk sentiment swings may affect emerging market assets, but much less so relative to Euro-area and UK assets, given the cushion from lower US yields.
• Lastly, we anticipate limited pass-through to Oil prices. The broad decline in US real rates creates more upside than downside in Gold prices.

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