Two forex trading newbies talking with each other
by
, 08-19-2021 at 05:57 PM (596 Views)
Two traders are talking (taken from this mql5 thread):
and it is the reply:Consider a linear regression model xi = a + b * i + ei in time i = 1, 2, ..., n, where the errors ei are white noise with the Laplace distribution. The error density then has the form p (x, c) = 0.5 * c * exp (-c * | x |), log (p (x, c)) = log (0.5) + log (c) -c * | x |
The likelihood function for the noise will have the form L = p (d1, c) * p (d2, c) * ... * p (dn, c), where di = xi-ab * i are the residuals of the model. Logarithm of the likelihood function LL = n * log (0.5) + n * log (c) -c * S, where S = | d1 | + | d2 | + ... + | dn |. S does not depend on the parameter c, therefore the problem of maximizing LL is solved in two stages
And what do you think?This is all true. The question is what exactly to take for the sliding between the two rows. For example, there is a traditional opinion that the length of the perpendicular to the regression line. But it seems to me that this is not quite the right way. For it gives a separation not relative to the previous values, but relative to a certain midpoint of them. Such a substance as the "asymmetry" of the opening is lost, and I would like to feel it.
- minimization of S (since c> 0) with respect to a and b ?
or- maximization of LL with respect to the parameter c, with the found value of S ?