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EUR/USD: Here Are The Trades We Like - SocGen "Market volatility has been elevated following the Chinese FX regime shift and has remained so despite the Fed delaying its rate lift-off. Pressure on risk assets have persisted, and the fragile market sentiment is restraining G3 bond yields, which are in turn constraining EUR/USD and USD/JPY in tight ranges""We like shorts in CHF/SEK as the case for such negative rates in Sweden slowly fades.""We ...
The dovish FOMC was on Thursday at 19:00 GMT so the major banks are made a forecast about the USD after FOMC. Morgan Stanley: "Long USD positioning is vulnerable over coming days and perhaps weeks...But USD Impact Temporary. Our structurally bullish USD view has never been Fed-focused. Rather, our framework is built on the reduced investment attractiveness in much of the rest of the world. Any setback in the USD is likely to be short-lived ...
Q: Is October on the table? A: Not really. We believe that Chair Yellen’s baseline since the June meeting has been a December liftoff, and it would be very unnatural for her to pull forward given the information received in the meantime. Besides, there is only one round of monthly economic data on the calendar before then. Last but not least, the logistics are daunting. There will not be a fresh SEP, and the committee would need to announce ...
Greek Elections, USD Post-FOMC, Chinese data, Eurozone PMIs and the German IFO EUR remains driven by two key drivers – policy divergence and market risk sentiment. These factors will also determine how the main releases next week will impact EUR. Starting with market risk sentiment, the Greek elections over the weekend and the Chinese PMI during the week could prove important drivers of risk sentiment – perhaps more the latter than the ...
Citigroup made a forecast for Fed hike for today in technical and fundamental ways: "Citi’s baseline is for a 25bps hike, but there remains considerable scope for surprise, as well as hifting communication to play a role. Ultimately we think the decision boils down to how the FOMC sees market conditions, and whether the recent volatility could lead the FOMC to temporarily postpone hiking.""In our view we place a 25% chance of a hike, and 75% for no hike. Still, the risk/reward favors ...
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