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Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTMU) made their fundamental forecasts for EURUSD based on some fundamental factors: "The euro weakened in July with the focus in the foreign exchange market shifting away from the uncertainty related to ‘Grexit’ and back to the monetary policy divergence between the euro-zone and the US. That should mean that the euro reverts to being the funding currency of choice." "We suspect there’s a lot more potential ...
US Dollar: "The more proactive, though less scalable, instigator for the Dollar is changes in monetary policy forecasts. This week docket isn’t shabby for market movers – retail sales, UofM sentiment survey, upstream inflation reports, small business optimism and a July labor conditions aggregate – but none of the offerings carry the mark of a decisive view changer. With the market still not fully pricing a Fed hike until January while the Fed sees two ...
USD: Bullish "We stick to our bullish USD view. Recent comments from Fed Governor Lockhart suggest that September is still very much in play, and as markets bring the timing of the first hike forward, this should support USD." EUR: Bearish "The EUR has been difficult to trade recently given that European stories such as Greece or the ECB have gone away from the market’s focus. Instead we expect EURUSD to trade lower on more ...
The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) made forecast concerning the following coming high impacted news events: Non-Farm Payrolls (or Non-Farm Employment Change) - they made a forecast for non-farm payroll growth of 250K in July, above the listed consensus of 225K. Just to remind that previous NFP data was 223K, and forecasting for now is 225K for example, so if RBS is looking for 250K as an actual data - it means to be more bearish for EURUSD. ...
Ernest Chan will give a very detailed look into Factor Models in this webinar. Factor models are well-known among long-term investors who favor stock selection models, but there are some exotic factors from which shorter term traders can also benefit. He will discuss the various factor modeling techniques and the more exotic factors recently discovered. Ernest Chan: Quantitative StrategistHe was a principal of ...
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