"Despite a dovish market reaction to this week’s FOMC statement, the Fed’s message remains focused on data dependency, and our economists continue to believe that conditions will be met for policy tightening to start in September. Accordingly, markets should remain focused on upcoming US economic releases. In the week ahead, a rebound in May core durable goods orders would be encouraging after a downward revision to April data, while the personal income and spending report should ...
Deutsche Bank advises clients to stay long USD/JPY reiterating its view that USD/JPY should gradually trade up to 128 over the course of Q3. DB outlines the following 4 reasons behind this view. 1- "Japanese institutional investors continue to buy foreign assets, and not only on dips. Lifers in particular have ramped up purchases with limited sensitivity to the exchange rate. We think pensions, albeit more sensitive, have lifted their ...
EUR/USD continues to grind higher as Greece continues to dominate the headlines. "The main focus was the June Fed meeting where early year expectations of a hike this month now feel a long time ago. There was speculation that Yellen shifted her 2015 dot lower, although as our US economist noted it is hard to tell. With the Fed still in data-dependent mode, more convincing evidence of a Q2 growth pick-up is needed. This week’s May durable ...
"USD: Increasing Sensitivity to Inflation. Neutral We remain medium-term USD bulls, but we continue to believe USD will struggle in the near term. The FOMC meeting this week has changed the near-term outlook as a more dovish than expected Fed has made front end yield differentials less USD supportive. We believe inflation readings will have more importance with employment bouncing back but core inflation remaining low. Should inflation start materially ...
US Dollar Ready to Turn to Haven or Feed on FOMC Rate View While there may be a lot of volatility for the Dollar moving forward, the medium-term fundamentals carry a positive slant whether general market conditions improve or deteriorate. Japanese Yen Unlikely to Break Out Until Greece Moves The Japanese Yen finished the week modestly higher versus the recently-downtrodden US Dollar, but the lack of a clear breakthrough from a highly-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting ...
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