FED, ECB, Greece: "The Greek Referendum will drive headlines for the near-term. We believe that divergence of monetary policies is a more powerful EUR driver than Greek risks. In this context, the timing of the first Fed rate hike (September is our call) and the ECB’s tone (the market misread the ECB’s message to get used to volatility) are more important for the euro than Greek headlines. Whilst Greek headlines and deadlines are clearly ...
'We remain of the view that a solution can be found in order to give Greece access to funds to repay the IMF next Tuesday. The EUR, however, is unlikely to face any material upside in an environment of strongly capped ECB monetary policy expectations. If this is confirmed over the weekend, we suspect that USD could emerge as the biggest beneficiary and expect it to extend its gains against a broad range of G10 currencies. While a relief bounce in EUR cannot be excluded, we doubt that it will ...
EUR/USD: No change. We are bearish and prefer to fade upticks against resistance in the 1.1300 area. A move below 1.1135 would signal lower towards our targets near the 1.1050 area and then the 1.0815 May lows. Our greater downside targets are at the 1.0460 year-to-date lows. GBP/USD: Thursday’s bullish engulfing candle has encouraged us to re-instate our bullish view. We are looking for a move back towards the 1.5930 range highs. ...
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group - the EUR/USD consolidating in a 1.10-1.15 range "A resolution to Greek debt negotiations may reduce downside risks, but a weak currency is needed to underpin the recovery...If anything, the risks to monetary policy are for additional QE as the current ECB forecasts are based on a full implementation of the existing program," ANZ argues. "We therefore continue to see downside risks ...
"Despite a dovish market reaction to this week’s FOMC statement, the Fed’s message remains focused on data dependency, and our economists continue to believe that conditions will be met for policy tightening to start in September. Accordingly, markets should remain focused on upcoming US economic releases. In the week ahead, a rebound in May core durable goods orders would be encouraging after a downward revision to April data, while the personal income and spending report should ...
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