Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Turn Green


Gold price is showing positive signs above the $1,925 pivot level. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $85 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a fresh increase above $1,920 and $1,925 against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $1,932 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are also moving higher above the $82.00 resistance zone.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $82.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price started a fresh increase from the $1,900 zone. The price was able to clear the $1,925 resistance to move into a bullish zone.

There was a steady increase above the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bears appeared near $1,950. The price is now correcting gains below the $1,942 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The RSI is back below 50 and the price is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,932.

If the bulls remain active, the price could start a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,942. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level. An upside break above the $1,950 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,965. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,980 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,938 level. The first major support is near the trend line at $1,932. The main support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high at $1,925.

If there is a downside break below the $1,925 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,905 support.



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USD/CNH Falls Amid Chinese Economic Stimulus


Since January, the Chinese yuan has weakened more than 9% against the US dollar due to problems in the Chinese economy, as evidenced by statistics, as well as the bankruptcy of the developer Evergrande.

And today, the People's Bank of China announced that it will reduce the required foreign exchange reserve ratio to 4% from 6%, starting September 15. The move is seen as aimed at slowing down the yuan's fall.

Also, 5 major banks in China are cutting mortgage rates, possibly to reduce the risks of Country Garden going bankrupt.

According to analysts reported by Reuters, the measures taken may be only a temporary solution, but will lead to an increase in problems in the long term.



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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Show Signs of Weakness


GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.2750 and trimmed all gains. EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8580 pivot level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase from 1.2580.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2655 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8580.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8560 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2745 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound struggled to recover and declined below the 1.2655 support level against the US Dollar.

The pair even tested the 1.2580 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2577 and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the 1.2600 zone and it is now testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2702 swing high to the 1.2577 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2620. The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 1.2655 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2702 swing high to the 1.2577 low. A close above the 1.2655 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2700.

Any more gains might send it toward 1.2745. If not, the pair could resume its decline below 1.2600. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2580.

If there is a downside break below the 1.2580 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2550 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2500. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2450 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Economic Calendar: US PMI Data, Stock Market Decline, and Oil Surge


After falling for the majority of August, stocks managed to rally in the last week of the month. The Nasdaq Composite surged by over 3%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.5%, and the DJI rose by 1.4%. History says September is primarily the worst period for the American stock market – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq usually go down this month. However, some analysts believe that a downward shift in consensus views on inflation and its risks may change the market sentiment to positive.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The US Dollar Is Up after Mixed News


EUR/USD

The euro fell on Friday as the dollar rose after the August jobs report showed that the labor market is still strong despite some signs of deterioration. Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, beating expectations for an increase of 170,000. But data for July was revised down to show 157,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, higher than expected 3.5%. Average hourly wages rose 4.3% year-on-year, below expectations for a 4.4% increase. The US dollar index last rose 0.58% to 104.23. It gained 0.08% over the week, overcoming a price drop earlier in the week caused by softening economic data. The euro fell 0.59% to USD 1.0773. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847, an upside break could trigger a move towards 1.0859. On the other hand, immediate support is seen at 1.0763, a break lower could take the pair to 1.0740.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Price of Oil Sets Maximum of the Year


Yesterday, the price of WTI oil rose above USD 85.50 per barrel. This has not happened since November 2022.

On August 24, we wrote that the price of oil could find support for growth from the lower border of the rising channel, as well as from the level of USD 78.50. Since then, the price of WTI oil has risen by more than 9%. Fundamentally this contributed to:

→ the policy of limiting production by OPEC+ countries;

→ expectations that the Chinese economy will recover thanks to the incentives of the authorities.

According to Trafigura, a large company trading mainly in metals and energy resources, investment in the development of the oil industry is not enough, and a price of up to USD 88 can be considered fair in the current circumstances.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AUD/USD Falls Sharply after the Decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates at 4.10% for the third month today, fueling rumors that the tightening cycle is over. Although according to Reuters, the majority of economists polled by the agency expect another increase by the end of the year after the release of the inflation report for the third quarter.

In the words of RBA chief Philip Lowe today:

→ data indicate that inflation could return to the 2-3% target range at the end of 2025;

→ the labor market remains strong and the economy operates at a high level of capacity utilization, although its development has slowed down;

→ further tightening is still acceptable if inflation is to be suppressed, which stands at 4.9% in July (at an 18-month low).

Reacting to the results of the RBA meeting, the AUD/USD rate fell to the lows of the year, to the level of 0.637.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Nosedives While USD/JPY Surged Further


EUR/USD started a fresh decline from 1.0940. USD/JPY is rising and might climb further toward the 148.80 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0860 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0760 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 146.10 and 147.00 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 147.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.0940 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.0860 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0805 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0707 and the pair is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0808 swing high to the 1.0707 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0760 and a key bearish trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0808 swing high to the 1.0707 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.0805. The main resistance is now near 1.0860. An upside break above 1.0860 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0940.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0705. The next key support is at 1.0680. If there is a downside break below 1.0680, the pair could drop toward 1.0635. The next support is near 1.0620, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The US Dollar Strengthens to a Maximum of Six Months


On Tuesday, financial market participants received a piece of data that gives signs of a slowdown in economies in different countries. Namely, the PMI index (an index of purchasing managers, which is considered a leading economic indicator) showed a negative trend in China and a number of European countries.

This led to a decrease in exchange rates against the US dollar.

Today, the US PMI data will be released, which is likely to affect the current strength of the US dollar index, as well as provide important information for the Fed's interest rate decision. The next meeting will be held on September 19-20.

According to the CME FEDWatch tool, there is a 7% chance that rates will be raised in September. However, the probability that it will be increased by the end of the year is about 45%.

“I can well imagine, from what I see so far, that we might have to go a bit higher, that we might have to raise the policy rate a bit more,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with German newspaper Börsen-Zeitung published on Tuesday.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.