Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

EUR/USD Eyes Recovery While USD/JPY Corrects Lower


EUR/USD started a fresh decline from 1.0930. USD/JPY is correcting gains and might test the 144.90 support in the near term.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0880 support.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY struggled near 146.40 and recently started a downside correction.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 145.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.0930 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.0910 support zone to enter a bearish zone against the US Dollar as mentioned in the previous analysis.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0890. The pair even settled below the 1.0880 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0832 and the pair is now correcting losses above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0930 swing high to the 1.0832 low.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0880. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0930 swing high to the 1.0832 low.

The next major resistance is near 1.0910. The main resistance is still near 1.0930. An upside break above 1.0930 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1000.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0830. The next key support is near 1.0800. If there is a downside break below 1.0800, the pair could drop toward 1.0765. The next support is near 1.0750, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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BTC/USD Price Analysis: RSI Drops to Lowest Since March 2020


The last time this classic indicator dropped below the 20.0 level was in March 2020, when the world panicked due to the spread of the coronavirus.

The extremely low RSI values indicate an extremely oversold market — it was formed as a result of the collapse of the BTC/USD rate on August 17, the reasons for which are not clear. Among the versions are:
→ SpaceX's decision to sell bitcoins from its balance sheet;
→ high yields of US government bonds (10-year bonds are at a 14-year high);
→ the collapse of the Chinese developer Evergrande.

Be that as it may, the decline of RSI below the level of 20.0 should not be interpreted as a signal to open a long position, although there is evidence for this.

Bullish arguments:

→ a long lower shadow on yesterday's candle on the daily bitcoin price chart confirms the aggressiveness of the bulls defending the 25.6k level;
→ this level approximately coincides with the Fibo level at 0.38 for a rollback from the growth of A→B;
→ the bitcoin market may follow the stock market — after all, the S&P 500 is at the lower boundary of the rising channel, which operates in 2023.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Commodity Currencies in Search of a Bottom, the Euro Resumes Its Decline


Problems in the Chinese economy and the unexpected decision of the People's Bank of China to cut the base interest rate put pressure on commodity currencies, as China is one of the main trading partners of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. However, this week, we can observe a slowdown in the downward movement in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD, which signals a possible start of corrective rollbacks.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair found support just above 0.6300 last week and is currently trying to strengthen above 0.6400. There are no confirmed reversal combinations for bullish movements on higher time frames yet; the nearest area for an upward rollback is the range of 0.6500-0.6600. If bulls fail to strengthen above these marks, the resumption of the downward movement in the direction of 0.6300-0.6200 may occur.

As for fundamental analysis, today at 15:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the number of building permits issued in the US in July; at 16:45 GMT+3, there will be data on the business activity index (PMI) in the service sector for August.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Currencies in Tight Ranges ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium


Major currency pairs are trading near the previously reached extremes in anticipation of news from the US. The EUR/USD currency pair fell yesterday to 1.0800, but bounced back sharply, the GBP/USD pair tested support at 1.2600, but still remained above the alligator lines on the weekly timeframe, and USD/JPY is retesting the 145 figure. Apparently, investors and market participants are waiting for comments from the head of the Fed about the future monetary policy of the regulator. Tomorrow starts the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, where a report by Jerome Powell will be heard.

USD/JPY

In the US dollar/Japanese yen pair, the reversal bearish bar from August 17 near 145.60 worked out. At the moment, the downward pullback has encountered support at the Alligator lines. If the price holds above 145.00 for several trading sessions, a resumption of growth towards recent highs at 146.50 may occur. But a break of support at 145.00 may mean a deeper correction towards 143.00-141.00.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3 we are waiting for data on basic orders for durable goods in the US for July. Also at the same time, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released. Tomorrow early in the morning traders will pay attention to the core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Price of WTI Oil Falls to August Minimum


As the chart shows, US Crude Oil fell below USD 78 yesterday for the first time since July 25. This was facilitated by:

→ fears of a crisis that could follow from the collapse of the Chinese property developer Evergrande;
→ alarming PMI data from different economies. Japan reported a contraction in manufacturing activity for the third month in a row. Business activity in the euro area also fell more than expected, especially in Germany. Business activity in the US in August approached the point of stagnation, while growth was the weakest since February.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Bounces Back after Falling 1% in One Day


The publication of news on the UK PMI index yesterday signaled an acceleration of the downturn in business activity. The index value was 42.5 (values below 50 indicate a slowdown in the economy). This is the thirteenth consecutive reading of the index below 50, with readings below 42.5 last recorded during the height of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

The first reaction to the news was a sharp drop in the GBP/USD rate, but by the end of the trading session, the rate recovered, which can be considered evidence of strong demand.

More bullish arguments are given by the analysis of the volumes of trading in futures for the British pound on the CME exchange:

→ the largest trading volumes for the year were recorded on June 13 (more than 240k contracts were traded at an average of about 100k per day). If you draw a horizontal level from the high of this candle at 1.262, you will see how it acts as support;
→ yesterday, extremely high volumes (more than 155k contracts) were recorded again on a candle with a long lower shadow. That is, high volumes, reflecting the activity of large players, may indicate the relevance of demand for the pound at a price of 1.262.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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GBP/USD Struggles To Recover, USD/CAD Holds Support


GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.2665. USD/CAD is holding gains above 1.3560 and might start another increase.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 resistance zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2620 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD is correcting gains from the 1.3640 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3585 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2665 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even traded below 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2550 level. A low was formed near 1.2547 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near a major bearish trend line at 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low at 1.2665.

A close above the 1.2665 resistance might spark bullish moves. The next major resistance is near the 1.2720 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2800 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2550. The next major support sits at 1.2510 or 1.2500, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2420.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal Downside Continuation


AUD/USD declined below the 0.6450 and 0.6430 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.5900 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6480 level against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.5985 resistance zone.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.5945 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6500 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6450 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430. The pair even settled below 0.6430 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair is now showing bearish signs and trading near the last swing low at 0.6410.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6390. If there is a downside break below 0.6390, the pair could extend its decline.

The next support could be the 1.618 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6365. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6320 support.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near 0.6430. The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6450, above which the price could rise toward 0.6490. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6550.

A close above the 0.6550 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6620.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY Rate Updates the High of the Year


Yesterday, USD/JPY hit 146.74 for the first time since November 2022. The rise in the rate is facilitated by the growing gap in the policies of central banks: while the Bank of Japan has kept the rate below zero since 2016, the Fed has been raising rates since the spring of 2022.

Moreover, on Friday, Powell said the Fed is ready to continue to remain tough in the fight against inflation. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is now a 62% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's November meeting, up from 42% a week earlier.

However, the limiting factor for the USD/JPY rate is the power of the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Last year, when the market was at current levels, the authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market, lowering the rate to 140 yen per US dollar.

The USD/JPY chart shows that:

→ the price continues to move within the ascending channel;
→ on Friday, during Powell's speech, the median line was tested, confirming its influence as a support;
→ former resistance at 144.8 also provides support;
→ if the trend continues, the rate may reach the upper limit of the channel — that is, the psychological mark of 150 yen per US dollar.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.