Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

S&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects Analysis


As shown by the daily chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen):

→ Since the beginning of 2023, the price has been moving in an upward blue channel. To date, the increase has been over 42%;

→ Since the start of 2024, the price has formed a steeper upward channel (shown in orange). In the first half of the year, the growth has exceeded 14%.

How realistic is it for bullish sentiment to persist? And what might the index quotations be by the end of 2024?

Yahoo Finance reports a decidedly bearish outlook for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) at the end of 2024, held by Marko Kolanovic, the chief strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. He cites the following factors:

→ Economic slowdown;

→ Downward revision of company profits;



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CAD Breaks Key Support


On 25 June, we noted that the USD/CAD price had approached a crucial support level—the lower boundary of a converging triangle, which indicated a relative balance of supply and demand in the market during May.

Since then, the price has bounced twice from this level (as indicated by the arrow).

Today, as the USD/CAD chart shows, the exchange rate is breaking through this key support, indicating a disruption in balance.

This has been influenced by the weakness of the USD. According to Reuters, the US dollar has declined relative to other currencies due to weaker-than-expected US economic data released on Wednesday. These included a weak ISM Services PMI report and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, which might suggest an economic slowdown.

How might the Canadian dollar's exchange rate change relative to the US dollar?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set for Steady Gains


AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6735 zone. NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.6120.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6735 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6700 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is gaining pace above the 0.6100 support zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6635 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6680 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6700 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6735 zone. A high was formed near 0.6733 and the pair is now correcting gains.

There was a move below the 0.6720 level. The pair declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6634 swing low to the 0.6733 high. On the downside, initial support is near a key bullish trend line at 0.6700.

The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6634 swing low to the 0.6733 high at 0.6680.

If there is a downside break below the 0.6680 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6660 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6635.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6720. The first major resistance might be 0.6735. An upside break above the 0.6735 resistance might send the pair further higher.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6760 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6800 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Prices Soar, More Gains Ahead?


Gold price started a fresh increase above the $2,342 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might soon test $85.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,320 zone against the US Dollar.
• A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near $2,355 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended gains above the $82.00 and $83.00 resistance levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $82.75 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,320 zone. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $2,330 level.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,335. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,355 resistance zone. Finally, the bears appeared near $2,365. A high was formed near $2,364.89 and the price is now consolidating gains.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

US Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls: Possible Scenarios


In anticipation of the release of one of the most important reports, the NonFarm Payrolls, the US currency has suffered losses across almost all fronts. Earlier this week, the EUR/USD currency pair tested and settled above 1.0800, GBP/USD traded above 1.2700, and USD/CAD fell back to 1.3610.

Today, we might see either continued corrective pullbacks or a resumption of medium-term trends if the employment data deviates from expectations. So, what should we expect?

• Experts forecast a decline in average earnings to 0.3% (if the figure comes in at last month's level or higher, it could strengthen the US currency).
• The number of new jobs in June is expected to be 194K (if the figure is significantly higher or lower than the forecast, it could cause volatility in major currency pairs).

USD/CAD

Dollar buyers in the USD/CAD pair failed to overcome resistance at 1.3750. A rebound from this level led to the formation of a "bearish engulfing" pattern on the daily timeframe. According to the technical analysis of USD/CAD, the price has approached the lower boundary of the medium-term flat corridor at 1.3610. If the price consolidates below this level in the coming trading sessions, the downward movement could continue towards 1.3520-1.3480. A rebound from 1.3610 could lead to a retest of 1.3700-1.3660.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GOOG Stock Sets Historic Record


As the chart shows, the GOOG stock price yesterday surpassed the June 27th high and set a historic record at $185.88.

What contributed to this?
→ Overall bullish sentiment in the US stock market. Incidentally, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) also set a historic record yesterday;
→ Positive market expectations ahead of the second-quarter earnings report from Alphabet (Google's parent company);
→ Benzinga reports positive prospects, particularly highlighting the development of YouTube and language models.

Out of 38 analysts surveyed by TipRanks, 32 recommend buying Google stock. The average price forecast is $199 in 12 months.

But why then is Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai selling over $4 million worth of company shares? According to the Form 4 filed with the SEC, Sundar sold a total of 22,500 shares.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

FTSE 100 Index Behaves Bullishly Amid Elections


On Friday, the FTSE 100 index rose by 0.4% to 8273 points, continuing its 0.9% rise on Thursday. According to Trading Economics, the centre-left Labour Party, as expected, won the parliamentary elections and secured a majority, ousting the Conservative Party after 14 years in power.

The Labour Party emphasised the importance of economic stability in its decisions and committed to strict budgetary spending rules.

Prime Minister Sunak conceded defeat, and the UK stock market positively received the official election results. As shown by the chart, the FTSE 100 index (UK 100 on FXOpen) has risen by approximately 1.9% from the July 2nd low.

However, the situation remains unfavourable for the bulls.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The EUR/GBP rate fluctuates under the influence of political factors


On 10th June, we wrote that the EUR/GBP rate fell to a 21-month low after the European Parliament elections. Political fundamental factors continue to influence this pair.

As Reuters reports:

→ The euro is down on Monday amid unexpectedly strong results for the left-wing forces in the French elections, which has created new uncertainty regarding the country’s financial outlook.

→ The pound sterling has risen to a 3.5-week high against the US dollar, as the British currency strengthens following the Labour Party’s decisive victory in last week’s elections, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

Therefore, it is not surprising that a bearish gap formed on the EUR/GBP chart at the start of the week – however, bulls managed to recoup the decline during the Asian session. How will events unfold from here?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Brent Crude Oil Price Hits the Highest Level Since 1 May


Analysing the oil price on 19th June, we wrote that:

→ Amidst increasing demand for oil during the holiday season, Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that by the end of summer, the Brent price could rise to $86 per barrel with an upper limit around $90.

→ The price could reach the upper boundary of a narrowing triangle that originated in 2022-2023 – technically, this is a significant resistance level.

As the Brent crude oil price chart (XBR/USD) shows, the price has reached the upper boundary of the triangle since then. How will events unfold from here?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Falls from Six-Week High


As shown by the XAU/USD chart, on Friday, 5 July, the price of gold rose above the $2390 level for the first time since 22 May. According to Reuters, this increase occurred following the release of key US employment data, which indicated a softening labour market, raising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

However, yesterday, Monday, the gold price fell to $2360 per ounce – the level from which Friday's ascent began. This suggests that the bulls were unable to maintain control over the market, which indicates a bearish sign.
Could the Gold Price Decline in the Coming Days?

From a technical analysis perspective of the XAU/USD chart:

• The gold market has clear support around the $2300 area. Each time the price fell below this level in June (as indicated by arrows), it quickly rebounded upwards, demonstrating sustained demand.
• Price action since April provides enough reference points to establish a descending channel (shown in red). The recent bearish reversal returned the price within this channel, reinforcing resistance from its upper boundary.
• There is also reason to believe that the bullish breakout of local resistance (shown in black) might be false.

Therefore, signs of seller activity in the $2380-2400 range suggest that the gold price could continue to decline towards the important support at $2300.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.