Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

The Stock Price of PepsiСo (PEP) Is Retracting from Its Yearly High


On April 23, the quarterly report of PepsiCo's performance for the first quarter was published, which was awaited anxiously.

The issue stemmed from the fact that in December 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the recall of over 40 Quaker Oats products – a company owned by PepsiCo – due to potential salmonella contamination. This led to a 22% decline in sales volume of Quaker Food products in the first quarter.

However, the report exceeded expectations:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $1.16, Expected = $1.518;
→ Gross revenue: Actual = $18.25 billion, Expected = $18.08 billion.

By April 25, the stock price of PepsiCo (PEP) reached its yearly high, surpassing the $180 mark.

Then, this week, specifically May 13, the stock price of PepsiCo (PEP) hit a new yearly high, exceeding $181.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The US Dollar Is Weakening Following Inflation Data


Yesterday saw the release of key economic indicators for the US. According to ForexFactory:

→ Core Price Index (CPI) monthly: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.4%;

→ Core Price Index (CPI) annual: actual = 3.4%, expected = 3.4%, previous = 3.5%;

→ Retail Sales monthly: actual = 0.0%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.6%.

Concerns about rising inflation did not materialise. Reuters reports that unchanged retail sales suggest conditions are forming for interest rate cuts.

Financial markets reacted significantly, with the US dollar weakening:

→ As we reported yesterday, signs of slowing inflation increased market participants' belief in imminent rate cuts, leading to the S&P 500 stock index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reaching an all-time high;

→ Gold prices reached a high not seen since April 21;

→ Other currencies strengthened against the US dollar.

An interesting situation is developing on the USD/JPY chart. Applying Fibonacci ratios, we note three instances where price recovery halted around the 0.382 level:

→ Recovery from B to C following the impulsive decline from A to B;

→ Recovery from D to E after the impulsive decline from C to D;

→ Recovery from F to G after the 3-wave decline from A to F.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Dollar Adjusts After the Publication of Inflation Data in the US


Data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US, released yesterday, had a significant impact on the pricing of major currency pairs. According to the provided report:

• The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.3% from the previous month, while experts had forecasted 0.4%.
• Retail sales remained unchanged at 0.0%, contrary to analysts' expectations of 0.4%.

As a result of the publication of such data, the dollar depreciated against almost all major currencies. For instance, the USD/JPY currency pair retreated from its peak at 156.60, the EUR/USD strengthened by more than 100 pips within a couple of hours, and buyers of the GBP/USD pair tested a significant resistance level at 1.2700.

The main reason for the sharp decline of the dollar against G-10 currencies is likely due to the possibility that slowing inflation growth and a weak labour market could prompt the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy direction and reduce the base interest rate in the coming months.

USD/JPY

According to technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair on the daily timeframe, a "bearish engulfing" pattern has formed, the confirmation of which could contribute to a retest of the important area between 152.80-152.00. If dollar buyers manage to establish themselves above 154.90, the price may resume its upward movement towards recent highs around 156.00.

Macro-economic data that could influence the pricing of the pair in the upcoming trading sessions:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00), the number of initial jobless claims in the US.
• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US).

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bitcoin Price Hits a Month's High, Breaking Key Resistance


Yesterday's release of CPI figures suggests that inflation is slowing down and a rate cut could be on the horizon. This weakened the dollar and boosted the value of assets priced in dollars, including BTC/USD.

As a result, the price of Bitcoin hit a May high.

Meanwhile, there is sustained demand in the market driven by institutional participants investing in Bitcoin ETFs. According to media reports citing 13F filings:
→ JP Morgan invested $731,246 USD
→ Wells Fargo invested $141,817 USD in Grayscale's GBTC.
→ Similar activity is observed with other traditional banks like BNP Paribas and BNY Mellon, indicating a broader industry trend.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set Sights on Additional Upside


AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6655 resistance. NZD/USD is also rising and could aim for a move above the 0.6140 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6585 and recovered higher against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6670 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.6100 support.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6585. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above the 0.6630 resistance against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 0.6655 resistance zone. There was a close above the 0.6685 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6715 zone. A high was formed at 0.6714 before the pair corrected gains.

It tested the 0.6655 zone and is currently consolidating gains. There was a fresh increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6714 swing high to the 0.6654 low.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6714 swing high to the 0.6654 low at 0.6685. The first major resistance might be 0.6715.

An upside break above the 0.6715 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6750 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6800 resistance zone.

If not, the pair might correct lower. Immediate support is near a major bullish trend line at 0.6670. The next support could be 0.6655. If there is a downside break below the 0.6655 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6630 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6585.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Share Price of Alibaba (BABA) Has Reached Its Yearly High


On 14 May, Alibaba released its first-quarter performance report:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $1.404, expected = $1.421;
→ Gross income: actual = $30.716 billion, expected = $30.502 billion.

The fact that earnings per share were slightly below expectations did not disappoint investors much, as on 16 May, Alibaba's share price (BABA) reached a yearly high, exceeding $86, forming a wide bullish candlestick with a close near the top (a sign of strong demand).

Positive sentiments were also driven by:
→ Another Chinese company, JD.com, released a report that exceeded expectations;
→ US regulators published information that well-known investor Michael Burry invested in Alibaba shares. David Tepper, head of the hedge fund Appaloosa Management, also holds a bullish outlook;
→ According to a note published on X (Twitter) by Citron Research analysts, Alibaba's share price could rise to $100.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Price of Silver Has Reached Its Highest Level in Over Three Years


As indicated by the XAG/USD chart today, the intraday price of silver reached $29.84 per ounce yesterday, while the previous yearly high on 12 April was $29.79. The last time this price was seen was in February 2021.

It is worth noting that today the price of silver is behaving more bullishly than the price of gold, which is approximately 1.5% below its April high.

The main factor contributing to the rise in the price of silver is likely the weakening of the US dollar, as traders expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.

Can the price of silver continue to rise? Analysts are generally bullish. As CNBC reports:
→ Saxo Bank strategists recently stated in an analytical review that the price of silver could rise to $30, while gold could soon test the $2,400 level.
→ Analysts at ROTH Capital Partners forecast that the prices of gold and silver will rise even higher in the coming months. According to JC O'Hara, Chief Market Technician, if the price breaks the $30 level, "there will be few resistance levels until the $35/$37 range."

Let’s provide more data for a technical analysis of the silver market.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's 13 - 17 May Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P500, US Dollar, Gold Price, PEP Stocks

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• The S&P500 Has Reached a Significant Resistance Level
• US Dollar Adjusts after the Publication of Inflation Data in the US
• Gold Price (XAU/USD) Is Testing an Important Resistance Zone
• The Stock Price of PepsiCo (PEP) Is Retracting from its Yearly High

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Coinbase (COIN) Stock Price Holds at Key Support Level


On Thursday, stock market traders were concerned about the sharp drop in Coinbase shares, listed on the Nasdaq, which fell by 9%. This was triggered by rumours that the Chicago-based CME Group is planning to launch cryptocurrency trading, posing a challenge to Coinbase, currently the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the US.

It is worth noting that CME already trades Bitcoin futures (since December 2017) and Ethereum futures (since February 2021). Is it possible for CME to launch spot cryptocurrency trading?

On one hand, interest in the cryptocurrency market has surged in 2024, with Bitcoin’s price up approximately 58% year-to-date, and around 146% over the past 12 months.

On the other hand, CME Group, as the world’s largest operator of exchange-traded derivatives, is considered a fundamental part of the US financial system. The SEC is unlikely to be favourable towards initiating cryptocurrency trading there, given their reputation for high risk.

Nevertheless, the sharp decline in Coinbase shares on Thursday did not continue into Friday.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Commodity Currencies Retreat from Local Highs


Despite the cooling labour market in the US and declining inflation, the American currency continues to move towards new highs. For instance, the USD/JPY currency pair might update the current month's high at 156.70, the NZD/USD sharply declines after retesting 0.6140, and buyers of the USD/CAD pair have confidently secured a position above 1.3600.

USD/CAD

The corrective pullback in the USD/CAD pair ended just below 1.3600. According to technical analysis, on May 16th, a bullish "piercing line" pattern formed on the daily timeframe for USD/CAD. The completion of this pattern could lead to a retest of the key range 1.3690-1.3660. If the price remains above these levels in the coming weeks, the pair’s rise could resume towards 1.3850-1.3820. A drop below 1.3600 could contribute to a more extensive downward correction towards 1.3530-1.3470. Important indicators that may affect USD/CAD pricing in the coming trading sessions:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00) - Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April
• Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT +3:00) - US Existing Home Sales

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.