Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

GBP/USD Price Declining after Encouraging UK Inflation Data Release


After yesterday's disappointing US inflation data, market participants were wary of UK inflation data. But they turned out to be more favorable.

→ Core CPI: actual = 5.1%, expected = 5.2%, past values = 5.1%
→ CPI: actual = 4.0%, expected = 4.1%, past values = 4.0%

Although in absolute comparison the inflation rate in the UK is significantly higher than in the USA, it is encouraging that over the month it shows a downward trend.

This eases pressure on the Bank of England in its tight monetary policy, and therefore the British pound fell in value against other currencies. In particular, the decline against the USD that began yesterday continued. Since yesterday's high, the price of GBP/USD has already decreased by approximately 1%.

The GBP/USD chart shows that:
→ the bears have broken the upward trajectory indicated by the blue lines;
→ the price develops within the descending channel (shown in red);
→ the price dropped below the level of 1.25730, which served as support since February 8.



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EURGBP continues to be suppressed during February. Will it rise again?


The first few weeks of 2024 have been laden with discussion, analysis and speculation regarding the forthcoming position of the US economy, largely due to the United States authorities having been the first to speak publicly about any monetary policy changes for the year ahead, as well as a considerable number of perspectives having been aired in the public domain regarding the US Federal Reserve Bank being the first central bank responsible for major currency to lower interest rates - something which actually did not happen.

While the expected announcement of planned reductions in interest rates did not materialise, there has been a lot of comparison between the US economy, and in particular, the US Dollar and Europe's majors, the British Pound and the Euro.

What about the monetary situation and economic outlook on the European side of the Atlantic? Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have followed similar, highly conservative monetary policies to that of the Federal Reserve over the past two years, and therefore, it would have been likely that perhaps equal expectations of reductions of interest would ensue if the Federal Reserve had actually proceeded down the route that many analysts expected.

Now, with the US rates remaining the same, could it be that the European and British central bankers will follow the same path? Judging by the result of the European Central Bank policy meeting, which took place on January 25, at which it was decided that rates would remain unchanged, this appears to be the case so far.

Looking at the performance of the EURGBP pair makes for interesting research, given that this chart pattern shows the sentiment within the European Union member states and Britain, all regions where major currencies are the sovereign tender, but without any comparison to the United States.

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AUD/USD Price Reaction to Labour Market News Provides Important Information for Analysis


Australia's unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 4.1% in January, while employment was little changed although analysts had expected around 25,000 new jobs, data released this morning showed.

It is believed that weak labour market data should prompt central bank officials to ease monetary policy, which is currently aimed at fighting inflation. According to Trading Economics, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points this year.

The first reaction to the news was the weakening of the Australian dollar (counting on the easing of the Central Bank's policy), but by the opening of the European session, the price of AUD/USD had recovered a significant part of the decline, which provides important food for thought.



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Ethereum Price Exceeds $2,800


The last time the ETH/USD price was at this level was in May 2022, which was the start of a massive drop of more than 65% in 1.5 months.

However, now the ETH/USD market is dominated by bullish sentiment, for the following reasons:

→ deployment of the Dencun update on the Ethereum network this month, which will open up new opportunities for users and developers;
→ expectations that this year, following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, applications for the launch of ETFs on Ethereum will be approved;
→ waiting for a traditional bull market after halving in the Bitcoin network.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The US Currency Correcting after a Sharp Rise


An unexpected rise in the US consumer price index contributed to the resumption of the upward trend in the US dollar. Thus, experts predicted a monthly growth of 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.9%, in reality the monthly figure increased by 0.3%, and on an annualized basis this is 3.1%. Such data could not but please greenback buyers. After all, a change in the vector of monetary policy given the current indicators and the existing situation on the labour market in the United States is hardly possible in the near future.

USD/JPY

The rise in inflation in the US contributed to the return of the USD/JPY pair above 150.00. The price on the USD/JPY chart set a new yearly high at 150.80, after which it entered a consolidation phase between 150.80 and 150.20. If the upper limit of the specified range is broken, the price may resume growth in the direction of last year’s highs near 152.00. A move below 150.00 may contribute to the start of a larger downward correction in the direction of 148.00-146.00.

Today at 16:30 GMT+3, data on weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released. Also at the same time, the core US retail sales index for January will be published, as well as the manufacturing activity index from the Philadelphia Fed for February.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Attempts Recovery While EUR/GBP Gains Strength


GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2535 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its rally above the 0.8570 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a recovery above the 1.2550 zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key rising channel forming with support at 1.2570 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above the 0.8535 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8550 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2690 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2600 zone against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 1.2535 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2690 swing high to the 1.2535 low. The pair settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2570.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2600 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2690 swing high to the 1.2535 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2650 level. If the RSI moves above 60 and the pair climbs above 1.2650, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.2720 level or even 1.2750.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2570 and a key rising channel. If there is a downside break below the 1.2570 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2535 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2500. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2450 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price Recovers from Year Lows


On Wednesday, the gold price XAU/USD set a year low due to news about inflation in the US, which “does not want” to decline to target levels.

As a result, market participants are revising their estimates regarding the price of gold with the prospect that the Fed's tight policy may last for a longer time, as well as taking into account yesterday's news:

→ Retail Core Sales in the US fell by 0.6%, although an increase of +0.2% was expected, a month ago = +0.4%.
→ the number of unemployment applications for the week remains relatively stable: actual = 212k, a week ago = 218k, a month ago = 202k.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

TSLA Share Price Rises Sharply amid News of Musk's Increased Stake in the Company


According to media reports, Elon Musk has increased his stake in Tesla by more than one and a half times — previously, the billionaire owned approximately 13% of the shares, now he owns 20.5% of Tesla. And earlier it was reported that Musk wants to increase his stake in Tesla to at least 25%.

At the same time, the TSLA share price rose sharply in yesterday's trading by more than 6%, while the S&P 500 stock market index increased by “only” +0.6%.

The TSLA stock chart today shows that:
→ the price has overcome the psychological mark of USD 200 per share;
→ the price has overcome the resistance level of USD 195 per share;
→ a bullish reversal pattern inverted head-and-shoulders has formed on the chart.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen's 12 - 16 February Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: US INFLATION, GBP/USD, GOLD, BITCOIN

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• News about US Inflation Shake Markets #Inflation
• GBP/USD Price Declining after Encouraging UK Inflation Data Release #GBPUSD
• Gold Price Takes Hit While Crude Oil Price Extends Rally #Gold #Oil #CrudeOil
• Bitcoin Price Exceeds Psychological Level of $50k #Bitcoin #BTC

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Is the UK really in a recession? Perhaps 2024 data will be different


It's Monday morning, and a deluge of doom and gloom relating to a recession having begun in the United Kingdom is abound.

Many mainstream news channels, along with analyses coming from a number of financial markets commentators, are outlining the potential contraction of the British economy should the central bank monetary policy remain hardline regarding interest rates.

There is a school of thought which warns investors that if the Bank of England does not decide to reduce interest rates, the British economy would perhaps become less competitive, and language such as causing a worsening of an existing recession could take place.

This is a very intriguing view, however, because the British Pound has been performing against other major currencies in a pattern that would suggest anything but a recession is even existent, let alone in full swing as is being touted by many reports.

During the course of this year so far, the British Pound has been gaining value significantly against the Euro, with the EURGBP pair having hit 0.850 at the bottom of the market on February 14, according to FXOpen charts, a far cry from its 0.869 value on January 1.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.