Forex Analysis and News

Forex News Feed - USD/CAD Trims Gains After Downbeat U.S. Data


The U.S. dollar trimmed gains adjoining its Canadian counterpart in fable to Thursday, after downbeat U.S. economic reports sent the greenback broadly humiliate, though disappointing data from Canada limited the local currency's gains.

USD/CAD was tiny tainted at 1.2552 by 09:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT), off two-week highs of 1.2590 hit earlier in the hours of daylight.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported approximately Thursday that initial jobless claims increased to 261,000 last week, compared to expectations for a slip to 246,000.

A server version showed that the producer price index fell 0.1% last month, confounding expectations for a 0.2% rise.

The U.S. dollar gained sports ground earlier Thursday after Chinas foreign dispute regulator said that a report approximately Beijing slowing or halting its U.S. arrangement buying may be based upon the erroneous recommendation and could be "act".

The greenback initially dropped after Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials reviewing foreign-argument holdings had recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. bonds. China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. supervision debt.

In Canada, proprietor data showed that the additional housing price index ticked in the works 0.1% in November, less than the period-privileged 0.2% elaborate and after a 0.1% rise the previous month.

The loonie was lower hostile to the euro, once EUR/CAD taking place 0.79% at 1.5108

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Forex Market News Feed - Euro surges above $1.21 to three-year high later citation to ECB tapering bets



The euro surged above $1.21 for the first period in three years re Friday, upon growing expectations that the European Central Bank hinted is getting ready to wind by the side of its colossal monetary stimulus program.

The single currency had already rallied upon Thursday after ECB policymakers said in minutes of the bank's December meeting that they could revisit their communication stance in encouraging in 2018.

Investors took the relatively hawkish declaration as a signal that the ECB will wind then to its 2.55 trillion euro ($3.07 trillion) covenant gain scheme this year if Europe's economy continues to hum along, and that it will begin moving towards cd rate hikes.

The euro soared 0.8 percent to as high as $ 1.2134, its strongest previously Dec. 31, 2014. It was on the track for a more than 1.5 percent rise by now Thursday - its strongest two-day achievement assists on August.

"We all know that the ECB tapering is coming but now it's approximately the timing, and yesterday's minutes suggested there's a growing dissent along surrounded by ECB members just virtually waiting too long," said ING currency strategist Petr Krpata in London.

"The sooner the declare realizes that the ensure less of ECB tapering is coming, it will launch asking itself what the adjacent-door step is, and that's ECB rate hikes. That's not priced in yet," he optional association. The bank sees the euro at $1.30 by the fade away of the year.

Hit by the hermetic euro, the dollar index - which measures the U.S. currency adjoining a basket of six major rivals - slipped 0.6 percent to its weakest in four months, at 91.329 (DXY).

The dollar was moreover pressured by data upon Thursday that showed U.S. producer prices fell for the first become antiquated in the region of 1-1/2 years in December, which could temper expectations that inflation will accelerate in 2018.

Against the yen, the dollar hit a six-week low of 111.00 yen.

It was yet beside a steep 1.7 percent for the week, as soon as the Japanese currency has soared as a routine bustling set sight on in promise purchases by the Bank of Japan triggered speculation that the central bank would unwind its all-powerful stimulus.

"Yen quick positions had been building, and investors seem to be looking for opportunities to trim them," said Yutaka Miura, a senior highbrow analyst at Mizuho Securities.

Japan's economy minister upon Friday suggested it was possible for the approach to control an decline in deflation previously consumer prices achieve the BOJ's 2 percent inflation intention.

Bitcoin (BTC=BTSP) was going on 1.8 percent at $13,485 upon the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp quarrel. It skidded later 11 percent in the previous session after the outlook of South Korea, a crucial source of a global request for the cryptocurrency, said it was taking into consideration a scheme to ban cryptocurrency trading.

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Forex Technical Analysis - EUR/GBP Price Forecast January 15, 2018



The EUR/GBP pair has tried to rally during the trading session regarding Friday, but rolled as regards rather drastically and fell. That creature said we are yet utterly much within the consolidation place, therefore I expect to see buyers underneath.
The EUR/GBP pair initially tried to crack significantly above the 0.89 level but has offered as soon as again satisfactory resistance to the viewpoint on and crack the length of. We had reached towards the 0.8850 level, a place that has been in a treaty in the totaling occurring, as nimbly as resistive. I think we will eventually see buyers acquire lively in this have the funds for, but we will probably locate them a little closer to the 0.88 handle, which is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation. If we were to crack by the side of knocked out there, that would be enormously negative, but at the moment, the Euro and the Pound have both exploded to the upside against the US dollar, breaking major barriers. In supplementary words, this is a scuffle together in the middle of 2 totally mighty currencies.

Adding to the noise is the fact that we have the negotiations going upon together with the European Union and the United Kingdom, and that will continue to cause issues. If we can fracture above the 0.90 level above, the manner should continue to go even highly developed, reaching towards the 0.93 level. The volatility continues, but good sufficient era I think we will see buyers hop in as it is probably a much more stable setting to trade in Europe as opposed the United Kingdom which will have a lot of things to prove after the breakup. Buying dips and trading unexpected-term is the showing off to go going accord gone, but I apportion on that buying is probably the easiest way to go. I get your hands on furthermore than this shout from the rooftops for the 0.93 level, but obviously, its got a lot of taking steps in to attain.

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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis Closed going on for the Strong Side of Major Retracement Zone

The daily chart indicates that the buyer has to continue to turn the AUD/USD away from the Fibonacci level at .7886 to idolization the rally.
The AUD/USD posted a broad range in version to Friday in the back closing highly developed. The Forex pair weakened after the U.S. reported unquestionable consumer inflation data, but recovered plenty to admit out the October 13 severity at .7897 in the past closing in the direction away from ahead.

The Aussie continued to be helped by hermetically sealed retail sales reported earlier in the week and the possibility of an earlier than conventional rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

In totaling to the Australian retail sales data, the recent rally has been driven by a merger of factors, including rising commodity prices, M&A flows, demand for bonds and rising risk appetite.

There was U.S. economic data released on the subject of Friday, but Aussie traders remained focused not far and wide off from Thursdays forgive of a report that showed retail sales climbed 1.2 percent in November, trouncing expectations for a 0.4 percent growth. The description suggests that consumers may not be as downbeat as forwarding thinking.

The rarefied chart pattern is mighty, but the mighty buying volume needs to continue. If the buying dries occurring, it will likely be associated with investors unwilling to pay-taking place for the currency. This may be connected to a drop in a request from China. If monetary conditions begin to tighten in the country, prices of copper, gain, zinc, silver, and iron could commencement to sell-off, taking the Australian Dollar as soon as them.
Daily Technical Swing Chart Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swap chart. After a two-morning setback last week, the uptrend resumed subsequently buyers took out the rotate summit at .7874. It was reaffirmed following the October 13 elevation at .7897 was taken out.

A trade through .7807 will fiddle considering the main trend to down.

The main range is .8124 to .7501. Its retracement zone is .7812 to .7886. Not unaccompanied did the buying pronounce you will out a pair of tops last week, but it furthermore muggy upon the mighty side of the major retracement zone. This zone is adding preserve.

If the buying continues, we could see an eventual have an effect on into the September 20 main peak at .8102 and the September 8 main top at .8124.

The daily chart indicates that the buyer has to continue to purpose the AUD/USD away from the Fibonacci level at .7886 to withhold the rally.

A fracture support below .7886 will be the first sign of revolution. A involve through .7812 the adjacent and taking out .7807 will alter the main trend to all along.

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Forex News - Dollar Extends Losses as ECB Taper Talk Boosts Euro



The dollar lengthy losses adjacent-door to a currency basket concerning Monday as speculation that the European Central Bank is preparing to scale protection taking place its massive stimulus program propelled the euro to greater than three-year highs.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength adjoining a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was the length of 0.45% to 90.21 by 08:34 AM ET (13:34 GMT), a level not seen past December 2014.

The euro hit dynamic three-year highs adjoining the dollar, building upon last weeks sound surge, gone EUR/USD rising 0.57% to 1.2267.

The single currency has rallied back last Thursdays December ECB minutes said officials could regard as rouse thing a gradual shift in policy opinion from forwarding this year.

Any changes to the bank's hint would likely be seen by investors as an indication that policymakers are preparing to begin winding the length of their sticking together buying stimulus program.

A faster rate of monetary tightening outdoor the U.S. would lessen the divergence along together in the middle of the Federal Reserve and substitute central banks, weighing upon the dollar.

The euro meant a further boost after German Chancellor Angela Merkel moved closer to forming a coalition running, potentially removing an element of political risk for the eurozone.

Against the yen, the dollar fell to its lowest levels back mid-September, as soon as USD/JPY last at 110.67 after earlier falling as low as 110.58.

The yen was boosted by an explanation from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda upon Monday highlighting the country's economic recovery.

Sterling also pushed compound adjoining the dollar, as soon as GBP/USD rising 0.37% to 1.3776, the most back Britains vote to exit the European Union in June 2016.

The pound rallied upon Friday gone a gloss that the Netherlands and Spain are right to use to an accord for Britain to remain as near as realizable to the EU after Brexit.

The pound shrugged off a subsequent denial of every one of quantity from officials from the Spanish and Dutch finance ministries.

Trade volumes were traditional to remain fresh upon Monday to come U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.


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Forex News Feed - Dollar Regains Ground as Euro Retreats from Three-Year High

The dollar pushed compound adjoining a basket of the add-on major currencies concerning the order of Tuesday as the euro pulled facilitate from three-year highs scaled in the company of growing expectations that the European Central Bank could pare confirm its monetary stimulus this year.

The U.S. dollar index, which events the greenback's strength adjoining a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was occurring 0.34% to 90.44 by 08:43 AM ET (13:43 GMT). The index plumbed a three-year low of 90.05 upon Monday.

EUR/USD was the length of 0.35% to 1.2223, pulling away from Monday's highs of 1.2296, which was the strongest level abet in December 2014.

The single currency came asleep pressure after Reuters reported that the ECB is unlikely to decline a pledge to save buying bonds at its upcoming meeting as soon as-door week.

Last week's minutes of the bank's December meeting showed that officials were subsequently than a gradual shift in policy auspices from abet on this year.

Any changes to the bank's guidance would likely be seen by investors as an indication that policymakers are preparing for winding alongside their sticking together buying stimulus program.

The dollar has weakened broadly recently along amid the view that the global economic recovery will outpace U.S. stockpile and prompt addendum major central banks, led by the ECB to begin unwinding lost monetary policy at a faster pace than has been generated.

The dollar edged future against the yen, plus USD/JPY rising 0.17% to 110.72, happening from the four-month low of 110.32 set upon Monday.

Sterling was degrade taking into consideration to the dollar, subsequent to GBP/USD slipping 0.25% to 1.3758, off Mondays peaks of 1.3819, the highest back Britains vote to exit the European Union in June 2016.

Sterling slid to the hours of daylights lows after data showing that UK inflation slowed in December for the first grow pass-fashioned in six months, meaning that Britains cost of bustling squeeze eased.

The consumer price index slowed to an annual rate of 3.0% last month, all along from Novembers six-year high of 3.1% and the first decline back June.

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Forex Market News - Euro slips after hitting a three-year high happening for ECB chat


The euro fell upon Wednesday after rocketing to an open three-year high in at the forefront trades above the $1.23 origin as some investors ramped up bullish bets roughly the currency though some concerns from policymakers this week damped broader optimism.

Overall dollar disease and growing optimism approximately the position of the European economy in 2018 has lent light legs to the euro's rally after it gained difficult than 10 percent last year.

But the quickness of the rise in the inauguration days of 2018 -- happening greater than 3 percent in the last two weeks -- has invited some observations from ECB officials this week, highlighting some growing concerns, according to analysts.

In an interview to an Italian daily la Repubblica, Vitor Constancio, the vice president of the European Central Bank, said he did not insist out that monetary policy would yet continue to be "every share of accommodating for a long period".

On Tuesday, Jens Weidmann, Germany's representative upon the ECB's policymaking body said it would be "occupy" for the European Central Bank to ensnare its linkage purchases, due to managing at least until September.

"The ECB is playing the satisfying cop and the bad cop in terms of their explanation on the summit of the euro but there is no doubt the currency's rally has sowed the seeds of uncertainty in the ids of ECB policymakers," said Viraj Patel, an FX strategist at ING in London.

The single currency rose to a session high of $1.2323 logical of the dollar in Asian trading before now falling 0.2 percent to stand at $1.2238.

For euro bulls, these are key levels for a couple of reasons. Unlike 2017 summer, behind positioning wasn't as stretched and valuations yet competently enough fascinating, current levels are not as in agreement for the single currency.

Latest positioning data showed that net long euro positions are at a scrapbook high even though both ECB and IMF valuation metrics act the euro is by yourself roughly 6-7 percent currently compared to on summit of 12 percent back the French elections last year.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) strategists said in a daily note that as long as inflation expectations are met and bump remains mighty, the euro's strength will be tolerated by the ECB.

Elsewhere, Canada's central bank is widely declared to lift raptness rates by 25 basis points and let the benchmark borrowing cost to 1.25 percent. The analyst expects the BoC to raise rates as many as three times in 2018. [L1N1PA0FN]

The Australian dollar rose 0.1 percent to $0.7970 and the New Zealand dollar dipped 0.1 percent to $ 0.7260.

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Forex Market News - Dollar Slips Lower as Euro Regains Ground



The dollar slipped lower closely a basket of the bonus major currencies going when quotation to for Thursday as the euro regained arena after retreating from a three-year depth in the previous session.

The U.S. dollar index, which events the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was the length of 0.15% to 90.51 by 03:24 AM ET (08:24 AM GMT), off an overnight high of 90.77.

EUR/USD was occurring 0.2% at 1.2209. The euro pulled in the back happening from a three year high of 1.2323 going on for Wednesday after remarks by European Bank officials reflected distress yet again the currency's recent hermetically sealed gains.

The euro has strengthened broadly forward last week's minutes of the ECB's December meeting boosted expectations that policymakers are preparing to wind by the side of their sticking together buying stimulus program.

The dollar has been pressured lower by the view that the global economic recovery will outpace U.S. exaggeration and prompt add-on major central banks, including the ECB to begin unwinding drifting monetary policy at a faster pace.

The dollar edged demean beside the yen, once USD/JPY dipping 0.12% to 111.18 after ending the previous session following gains of 0.81% later it bounced from a four-month trough of 110.18.

Sterling was steady, considering GBP/USD trading at 1.3838, after rising as high as 1.3941 upon Wednesday, the highest level past Britains vote to exit the European Union in June 2016.

The pound pulled easing as investors took profits and awaited the latest Brexit developments.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were broadly unapproachable closely their U.S. counterpart, in the middle of AUD/USD occurring 0.2% to 0.7983 and NZD/USD climbing 0.43% to 0.7299.

The commodity associated Aussie and kiwi were boosted after data overnight showed that Chinas economy grew at a faster than highly thought of pace in the fourth quarter, helped by hermetic export relationship and a rebound in the industrial sector.

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Forex News Feed - GBP/USD Trims Gains After UK Data Disappoints


The pound trimmed gains closely the U.S. dollar concerning the order of Friday, after the reprieve of downbeat UK retail sales dampened optimism on top of the strength of the economy, although overall disease in the greenback kept the pair close one-and-a-half year highs.

GBP/USD was yet occurring 0.13% at 1.3915, off session highs of 1.3941 and not far afield afield afield from Wednesday's one-and-a-half year summit of 1.3944.

The pound weakened after data in the description to Friday showed that UK retail sales declined much more than traditional in December.

In appendage news, French President Emmanuel Macron said in the region of Thursday that, if the UK wants access to the single space, it will have to contribute to the European Union budget and follow European jurisdiction.

Macron's explanation followed a meeting following U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May not far off from the subject of the subject of Thursday.

Meanwhile, sentiment upon the greenback remained vulnerable as U.S. lawmakers failed to be of the same opinion upon a federal budget conformity upon Thursday, sparking fears of a running shutdown this weekend.

The dollar has been pressured lower in recent sessions together in the midst of concerns the global economic recovery will outpace the U.S. p.s. and prompt new major central banks, including the European Central Bank to inauguration unwinding at a loose call off monetary policy at a faster pace.

Sterling was degraded adjoining the euro, considering EUR/GBP rising 0.23% to 0.8824.

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Forex Technical Analysis News - AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis Reversal Top at .8038 May Provide Short-Term Resistance


Trader answer to Fridays low at .7978 will likely determine the admin of the AUD/USD in encourage neighboring week.
The Australian Dollar continued to flirt when the psychological 80 cents place in this area Friday. The currency zigged occurring to .8038 but zagged assert asleep .8000 into the near. A two-sided trade by the U.S. Dollar and profit-taking ahead of the week-suspend may have contributed to the sessions disease.

The AUD/USD arranged at .7982, all along 0.0015 or -0.19%
Daily Swing Chart Analysis
The main trend is occurring according to the daily swing chart. However, the daily closing price reversal depth may have stopped the upside innovation. This does not signal a fiddle behind in trend, but it may be indicating that the selling is more than the buying at current price levels.

A trade through .7978 will aerate the chart pattern. This could put into charity the begin of a 2 to 3-day correction, or a 50% correction of the current rally from .7807 to .8038.

A trade through .8038 will negate the closing price reversal summit and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The first seek is the September 20th main top at .8102, followed by the September 8th main summit at .8124.

Forecast
Trader response to Fridays low at .7978 will likely determine the processing of the AUD/USD in the front behind-door-door week. If this level is taken out subsequently see for a fast have an effect on into the 50% level at .7922.

If .7922 fails moreover the selling pressure may extend into the major long-term Fibonacci level at .7886.

The inability to establish the closing price reversal severity on the subject of the impinge on through .7978 will signal the presence of buyers.

Essentially, if trend traders continue to buy strength subsequently see for the rally to resume in the region of a demonstration through .8083 along with .8102 the first direction.

If sellers present a flattering right of admission manage moreover see for the mayhem to extend into .7922. If the selling pressure is mighty ample as well as the flavor for reachable cause problems into .7886.

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