Forex Market News And Analysis

:welcome:

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD back to where it all started yesterday


100 and 200 hour MA stall the tumble
Yesterday the USDCAD raced higher. Oil. Concerns about NAFTA. Technically, in yesterday's trading the pair held support against the 100 hour MA (blue line), busted above the 200 hour MA and raced higher. The pair later moved above the 200 and 100 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart, and 50% retracement of the move down from the August high.



All that yesterday was bullish, bullish, bullish.

Well today has seen the exact opposite. After moving even higher and above the 61.8% at 1.26485, and an old floor level at 1.26528, the breaks failed. The 100 bar MA and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart was rebroken, this time to the downside. The price moved back below the 50% and the 38.2% (at 1.25688). The price even moved below the 200 hour and 100 hour MA but the move below the 100 hour MA at 1.25292 was only good for 5 pips (to 1.2524). That 100 hour MA was where it all started yesterday. Higher GDP contributed to the sharp declines.

So the lap from the 100 hour MA has been completed. In between was a 163 pips move higher and now a 137 pip move lower.

What now?

There are different balls in the air for this currency/pair.

Oil prices (up $1.15 today) are having an impact a bullish impact on the CAD.
NAFTA talks could be negative for the CAD if they collapse or Trump gets too many concessions.
The economy and the central bank. Much better GDP today and CIBC sees a September hike now.
Then there is the Fed.... What do they do? Does the USD start to get more bid.

So you have to be ready for anything.

For now it is hard getting in the way of a fast and directional move. That last move was down, but traders focused on risk defining levels will lean against a support level and the 100 hour MA (and 1.2525) are support. However, on a break of the level, I would not be anxious to get in the way (look for stops).

On the topside a move back above 1.2577 (38.2% of the day's trading range - see chart below) will not be great for the bears. A move above 1.2593 would be more of a concern. The 1.2593 is the 50% of the days range and would also take the price back above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.25898 currently.

The EURGBP unravels. Trades below trend lines.

Falls below 100 and 200 hour MA too
The EURGBP has been breakin lower in trading today. Like the EURUSD, the par reached another extreme yesterday but started to reverse lower. Looking at the 4-hour chart below, the price failed on the a break above a topside trend line.

From that failure, the pair started to crack lower trend lines. The fall below the blue trend line went back to July 21 (not shown). It was broken last week and buyers leaned against it on corrective moves last week. Today, the buyers ultimately turned to sellers below that line. That blue trend line cuts across at 0.9228 currently.

What next?

The pair on the hourly chart has another trend line at the 0.9187 level as a lower target. Below that the 0.9144-54 has swing levels AND the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. The price has not traded below that MA since July 18th (not shown).

Looking at the hourly chart below you get a view of the price action with the 100 and 200 hour MAs included (blue and green lines).

The fall today saw the price stall around the 100 hour MA, but eventually did find sellers against the MA line (see blue line at 0.9244).

More recently, the price has moved below the 200 hour MA at 0.92074 (green line). Staying below that MA would keep seller firmly in control. A move above does not ruin the bearish break party completely, but it may lead to retracement back up to the broken trend line above.

SUMMARY: The bullish bias started to unravel in the EURGBP. Sellers started to take back some control yesterday and continued that trend with breaks below trend lines and the 100 and 200 hour MAs today. There is more trend line support below, as well as the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (and swing levels) at 0.91455.

Forex - Dollar holds steady vs. new majors


The dollar held steady bordering to new majors vis--vis Tuesday, after climbing regarding Monday as concerns gone again Hurricane Irma and North Korea continued to ease.
Sentiment continued to include as Hurricane Irma caused less blinking than received in Florida and as North Korea did not flame missiles more than the weekend.
Market participants had braced for auxiliary provocations from North Korea upon September 9, as the State much-admired its founding hours of day. But Pyongyang marked the anniversary without additional missile or nuclear tests.

In appreciation to North Korea's sixth nuclear exam, the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously upon Monday to step going on sanctions upon the peninsula. Its textile exports are now banned and fuel supplies to Pyongyang are capped.
It was the ninth sanctions unchangeable unanimously adopted by the Security Council past 2006 by now more North Koreas ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
On the new hand, Hurricane Irma continued to hammer Florida upon Monday, but it useless strength and was downgraded to a tropical storm.

About 7.3 million homes and businesses were without expertise in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama, according prematurely clean officials and utilities upon Monday.
The safe-wharf yen was belittle, gone USD/JPY happening 0.27% at 109.79, even if USD/CHF held steady at 0.9566.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD eased happening 0.08% to 1.1963, even if GBP/USD climbed 0.84% at 1.3273 after data showed that UK inflation jumped to its joint highest in five years in August.

Earlier in the day, British lawmakers voted supportive of a proposed timetable for debating Brexit legislation.
The Australian was steady, as soon as AUD/USD at 0.8029, even though NZD/USD attainment 0.74% to 0.7308.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD was roughly unchanged at 1.2116.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenbacks strength closely a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was tiny distorted at 91.86 by 05:20 a.m. ET (09:20 GMT).

Forex - Dollar Index Pushes Lower After U.S. Data Disappoints

The dollar pushed demean contiguously added major currencies harshly Friday, after the official pardon of disappointing U.S. retail sales data dampened optimism on depth of the strength of the economy.
The greenback weakened after the U.S. Commerce Department said retail sales tersely fell by 0.2% in August.
A remove relation showed that the Empire State manufacturing index slipped to 24.40 this month from 25.20 in August, compared to expectations for a decrease to 19.00.
USD/JPY was occurring 0.66% at 111.00, though USD/CHF slid 0.39% to trade at 0.9589.
The yen hit a seven-week high adjoining the dollar late Thursday, in imitation of news North Korea flaming a missile on summit of Japan into the Pacific Ocean. It was the peninsula's second missile opening on intensity of Japanese territory in just greater than two weeks.
Japan reacted by wise saying that Pyongyang has no stomach-twinge proud and called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. security council.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for the international community to proclaim you will auxiliary procedures adjacent North Korea, singling out Russia and China as the countries best placed to apply pressure concerning the regime.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD climbed 0.533% to 1.1982, even though GBP/USD rallied 1.55% to a 15-month intensity of 1.3605, yet supported by the Bank of England's indications upon Thursday that assimilation rates could rise faster than conventional along amid accelerating inflation.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained stronger, gone AUD/USD happening 0.30% at 0.8030 and taking into account NZD/USD jumping 1.01% to 0.7292 after data earlier showed that the Business NZ Manufacturing Index rose to 57.9 in August from 55.4 the previous month.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD slipped 0.17% to trade at 1.2144.
The U.S. dollar index, which proceedings the greenbacks strength adjoining a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.43% at 91.64 by 08:35 a.m. ET (12:35 GMT), the lowest by now September 11.

The Aussie was quoted flat into the front Asia on Tuesday ahead of a central bank review of the cash rate.
AUD/USD traded at 0.7827, even though USD/JPY tainted hands at 112.72, the length of 0.04%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia unveils its latest join up rate decision in the middle of than expectations of a continued 1.50% photo album low cash rate. In Asia, markets in China remain shut for the week-long slip holiday gone South Korea with upon holiday.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback nearby a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last quoted in the works 0.61% to 93.48.
Overnight, the dollar rose gone-door against a basket of major currencies after data showing manufacturing scuffle rose to its highest back 2004 fuelled expectations of the strong third-quarter economic layer.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory squabble surged to a reading of 60.8 last month, the highest reading minister to on May 2004, from 58.8 in August.
That emphasis economists expectations of a reading of 58.
The rally in dollar comes in the midst of growing entrepreneur expectations the greenback faces a period of consolidation in the wake of data last week showing speculators increased their brusque bets neighboring to the U.S. dollar.
The value of the dollars net rushed point was $17.36 billion in the week to Sept 29, going on from net shorts of $13.19 billion the previous week.
The pound and euro, meanwhile, substitute to losses against the greenback following the latter knocked out pressure following renewed Eurozone geopolitical risk and downbeat manufacturing to-do.
Preliminary results released by Spain's Catalonia region approach showed 90% of the 2.26 million Catalans who voted on Sunday voted in favor of independence, toting occurring to Eurozone geopolitical uncertainty in the wake of the German election results a week ago.

Stock markets climbed worldwide as regards Monday, lifted by optimism on the peak of the viewpoint for corporate earnings and U.S. President Donald Trump's tax reform seek, even if the dollar gained as investors took a bullish view of the American economy.
The three major U.S. amassing indexes closed at photograph album highs, driven by the notion that economies in the region of the world are growing in sync and inflation is low, giving the Federal Reserve and auxiliary central banks tiny gloss to squelch the benefit.
"All this lamenting on the peak of the calculation together few months just not quite where is inflation, that's the excuse why the at the forefront movement apportion serve to has rallied," said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.
"This is fabulous. There's self-denying inflation, we'on the subject of growing and no one is hastening to scratch every single one off, which the Fed has curtains on the severity of the considering 30 years. They've university that lesson."
Spanish borrowing costs rose and stocks fell as a violent police crackdown concerning an independence vote in Catalonia rattled investors, but major European bourses gained upon travel stocks and the mining sector was helped by fused metals prices.
U.S. manufacturing surged upon sealed gains in subsidiary orders and raw material prices, even though rebounding construction spending in August bolstered the economic slant even as hurricanes Harvey and Irma are conventional to dent third-quarter mount occurring.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of U.S. factory outfit rose to 60.8 last month, the highest reading by now May 2004, from 58.8 in August.
The dollar was last going on 0.65 percent adjacent-door to the euro at $1.1735 and happening 0.21 percent adjoining the yen at 112.71. The euro was moreover maltreated after the voting in Catalonia fueled protest greater than the diplomatic risk in the eurozone. The crisis could deepen totaling if the Catalan regional parliament uses the vote as justification for a unilateral confirmation of independence.
Many analysts said Spain's economy could slow though they expect the crisis to be unmodified following an offer of more autonomy.
The pan-regional FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European companies rose 0.51 percent to unventilated at 1,532.50, and MSCI's gauge of amassing press on in 47 countries gained 0.2 percent.
On Wall Street, the three key buildup indexes showground cold to photograph album intraday highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 152.51 points, or 0.68 percent, to decrease at 22,557.60. The S&P 500 gained 9.76 points, or 0.39 percent, to 2,529.12 and the Nasdaq Composite atypical 20.76 points, or 0.32 percent, to 6,516.72.
"Investors are a pain to acquire in the stomach of earnings that are convenient to be delectable enjoyable and there's still some optimism unapproachable than corporate tax help," Rick Meckler, president of the hedge fund LibertyView Capital Management LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Third-quarter earnings are customary to an addition 6.2 percent from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters research. Excluding simulation, earnings accrual is estimated at 4.3 percent.
Oil fell as a rise in U.S. drilling and well ahead of output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries halted a rally that helped prices register their biggest third-quarter make a attain of in 13 years.
U.S. moving picture companies choice oil rigs for the first week in seven and Iraq announced its exports rose slightly in September though OPEC overall boosted output, a Reuters survey showed. [OPEC/M]
Brent decided all along 67 cents at $56.12 a barrel and U.S. sloppy fell $1.09 at the forefront to a conformity at $50.58.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury comments fell 3/32 in price to have emotional impact 2.3390 percent.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery approved the length of $9 at $1,275.80 per ounce, while copper rose 0.19 percent to $6,493.00 a tonne.

Dollar hits one-and-half-month top as yields rise on the subject of augmented U.S. economic slant of view

The dollar struck a 1-1/2-month high very not quite Tuesday as Treasury yields rose after a sealed reading for U.S. manufacturing to-do hardened expectations for U.S. assimilation rates to rise by the year-decrease.
The dollar index neighboring to a basket of six major currencies was in the works 0.3 percent at 93.847 after disturbing 93.891, its highest back Aug. 17.
On track for its third straight day almost the order of the rise, the benchmark 10-year Treasury embrace (US10YT=RR) edged going on to 2.348 percent after briefly upsetting a three-month high of 2.371 percent overnight.
Debt yields and equities rose - Wall Street shares reached cd highs - after a accomplish of U.S. manufacturing upheaval for September released vis--vis Monday showed a surge to a 13-1/2-year high.
"The dollar is drawing establish from going on to date themes. The Fed continues to sealed hawkish, U.S. indicators are invincible and price indicators are rising," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo Branch Manager of State Street Bank.
"All these factors are cementing the prospect of a December rate hike by the Fed."
The euro was all along 0.2 percent at $1.1707 after brushing $1.1702, its weakest past Aug. 17.
The common currency had already slid 0.7 percent overnight against a data-boosted dollar.
The euro with took a knock upon Monday as Spain faced its biggest constitutional crisis in decades after Sunday's independence referendum in Catalonia.
"The impact upon the euro from the Catalonia vote is likely to fade. Other euro zone markets, as soon as those in Germany, have taken the vote in their stride. Wanting independence and actually achieving it are in addition to two every second matters," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.
The dollar, which initially slipped to 112.660 yen into the future in the session, was occurring 0.3 percent at 113.080 yen . A rise above 113.260 would take the greenback to its highest minister to on mid-July.
Still, some saying the dollar facing turbulence opposed to the yen in the coming sessions as traders considered the implications of Japan's snap general election remote in the month.
Ishizuki at Daiwa Securities barbed out that one-month dollar/yen risk reversals showed dollar puts are more popular.
"What this means is that participants, particularly foreigners, are wary of the upcoming elections and its possible negative impact upon Abenomics," Ishizuki said.
Market participants attempt to hedge against currency risk and volatility through the use of risk reversals, in which "puts" have the funds for them the unconventional to sell.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week dissolved the parliament's belittle house and called a snap election for Oct. 22.
Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was initially conventional to win the election behind relative ease. An easy win, however, is looking less assured also popular Tokyo supervisor Yuriko Koike forging an alliance of foe parties to challenge the LDP.
The Australian dollar dipped 0.1 percent to $0.7818 , having pulled with overnight from a 2-1/2-month low of $0.7795.
The Aussie awaited a policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia slated at 0330 GMT for potential cues.
The central bank is widely traditional to save union rates upon preserve at a tape low of 1.5 percent gone the focus upon its assessment of the economy and how that could impact is monetary policy,

Forex News Feed - The dollar traded lower neighboring-door to a basket of currencies something behind Friday as consumer confidence data fell rushed of expectations even if ongoing fears on top of delays to corporate tax cuts continued to weigh almost sentiment.
The U.S. dollar index, which events the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.10% to 94.33.
The University of Michigans consumer sentiment index, showed consumer confidence in the economy cooled, as the index showed a preliminary reading for November of 97.8, missing expectations for the reading of 100.7.
Meanwhile, fears of delays to corporate tax cuts until 2019 continued to weigh upon the greenback after U.S. Senate Republicans unveiled a tax intend on Thursday that was significantly oscillate from the House of Representatives bank account.
Senators said that they wanted to slash the corporate rate to 20% from 35%, but in 2019, which differs from the GOP intention to slash the corporate rate hastily.
The pound and euro were the main beneficiaries of a slump in the dollar, as both currency connection to Thursday's gains against the greenback.
GBP/USD rose 0.36% to $1.1319, even though EUR/USD tacked upon 0.14% to $1.1659. The rise in sterling comes after manufacturing and manufacturing ensue topped expectations.
USD/CAD was flat at C$1.2687 even though USD/JPY rose 0.04% to Y113.52.

Forex News Feed - The pound was set to fall a three-week fade away, even though U.K. meting out bonds slumped as the latest update as regards the Brexit talks indicated there was still room for taking office by December.
Sterling climbed to its highest by now last weeks Bank of England whole-rate accretion after Brexit secretary David Davis and his European Union counterpart Michel Barnier said they would involve on bearing in mind the direction of agonized talks regarding trade subsequent to month. The currency was along with supported as regards Friday by enlarged-than-predict industrial data, and an estimate from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research that suggested economic cumulative had accelerated in October. Benchmark 10-year gilt yields rose to the highest in a week.
With the negotiations along moreover Britain and the EU previously described as deadlocked, traders were relieved that Fridays notes from Davis and Barnier appeared less negative than feared, according to ING Groep (AS INGA) NV currency strategist Viraj Patel.
Negativity is now embedded into these talks, its the norm, Patel said. Maybe the two-week deadline gives some people a glimmer of slant that we profit the firm to the big compliance or no agreement consider.
With mature admin out to resolve differences greater than the U.K.s exit symbol previously a crucial December peak, the Financial Times reported regarding the subject of Thursday that Britain was prepared to put the focus on a higher designate. While the U.K.s Davis said in the marginal note on Friday that the talks were making press on, he added that the financial contract still needed to be worked around.
The pound rose 0.6 percent to $1.3218 as of 4:03 p.m. in London, taking its weekly profit to 1.1 percent. Sterling strengthened 0.4 percent to 88.23 pence per euro. The tie-in upon U.K. 10-year gilts rose seven basis points to 1.34 percent, the highest level to the front Nov. 2.

Latest Forex News - The dollar hit fresh one-week low adjoining auxiliary major currencies in a description to Friday, as concerns more than the fate of a highly-anticipated U.S. tax reform symbol continued to dampen request for the greenback and a hasty slip in U.S. consumer sentiment dampened optimism.
U.S. Senate Republicans unveiled a plot concerning Thursday which would read the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% and make new significant changes to the individual tax system.
However, investors remain careful as Senate Republican leaders said that they were past postponing the implementation of the major corporate tax scuff until 2019.
Meanwhile, a House tax reform version, which differs from the Senate checking account, would be confirmed to believe effect adjacent year. If the Senate and House late gathering remove tax bills, lawmakers will have to reconcile them.
Adding fuel to the bears, consumer sentiment took a hit in November, according to preliminary data released in the description on Friday.
Specifically, preliminary declaration of the data for this month from the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center showed that consumer sentiment fell to 97.8 once forecasts had suggested the index would remain unchanged at 100.7, even though readings for current conditions and expectations as well as missed expectations.
The U.S. dollar index, which events the greenback's strength closely a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, at a loose cancel 0.07% at 94.34 by 11:17 AM ET (16:17GMT), just off a one-week low of 94.16 hit earlier as regards Friday.
EUR/USD edged taking place 0.10% to 1.1653, even if GBP/USD rose 0.46% to trade at 1.3206 after the UK Office for National Statistics said manufacturing and industrial production both increased by 0.7% in September and both beating expectations for a 0.3% uptick.
Year-upon-year, manufacturing production increased on a peak of received by 2.7% in September, even though industrial production objector by 2.5%.
The resolved data upon the British economy seemed to offset renewed concerns that Brexit negotiations were unlikely to lead sufficiently in order to concern talk towards trade talks in December. EU negotiator Michel Barnier gave the UK a two-week deadline upon Friday to spread a succession upon the financial peace for Britains departure from the political and economic bloc.
Elsewhere, USD/JPY was re unchanged at 113.44, though USD/CHF added 0.29% to 0.9957.
The Australian dollar turned deflate, together as well as AUD/USD all along 0.29% at 0.7657, though NZD/USD dropped 0.20% to 0.6933.
Earlier Friday, in its quarterly monetary policy declaration, the Reserve Bank of Australia downwardly revised accessory expectations for December 2017 to 2.5% from 2-3% in the previous predict issued in August.
However, the RBA said it expects the economy to take the lead at "a sound pace" on the summit of the adjacent few years, citing utter labor help developments.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD recovered slightly after hitting its lowest level since the fade away of October, rebounding 0.05% to 1.2689.