Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The main events by the morning: December 27

The net profit of Russian banks in 2025 may amount to 3.6-4.1 trillion rubles. ACRA estimates that the financial performance of credit institutions will be pressured by rising operating costs and a possible increase in credit risks. Banks' margins will continue to decline, but continued demand for loans will help the sector withstand a difficult year for monetary policy.

European countries continue to avoid strict compliance with anti-Russian sanctions. According to the NYT, in addition to European countries wishing to use Russian resources, India and the Persian Gulf countries have significantly increased imports of Russian oil, bringing the figures to record levels. At the same time, the EU's plans to increase arms production remain unfulfilled.

Elon Musk warned of possible bankruptcy of the United States if the problem of public debt is not solved. He proposed to create a new department to improve management efficiency and reduce bureaucracy, stating that he was ready to lead it. «Either we will solve this problem, or we will be on the verge of bankruptcy,» Musk wrote in his X account.

There is growing dissatisfaction in Germany with the sanctions against Russia, China and Iran. According to a study by Stoppt die Sanctionen, the fatigue index from sanctions measures reached 9 out of 10 possible points, which indicates serious concern among citizens.

The dollar's share in global reserves has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years. In the third quarter of 2025, it decreased by 0.85 percentage points, to 57.4%, which was the lowest since 1995. The main reason for the reduction is the increase in investments in euros, which increased to 20.02% compared to 19.75% in the second quarter. Investments in the Japanese yen and non-foreign currencies also increased, with shares of 5.82% and 4.46%, respectively.
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The main events by the morning: January 8

Trump has published a map of the United States with Canada, causing a political outcry. The ex-president continues to provoke the Canadian authorities and the opposition by announcing his plans for the country's accession to the United States. Not only Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is strongly opposed, but also the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Pouillevre, who promised to prevent the implementation of such initiatives if he won the election.

The Russian stock market expects to recover in 2025. Analysts predict an increase in the Moscow Exchange index to 3300-3700 points if geopolitical risks decrease, the key interest rate decreases and high dividends remain. After a weak 2024, investors are counting on improved financial performance.

The yuan fell to a minimum amid fears of Trump's sanctions. The yuan exchange rate reached 7.35 per dollar, the highest since September 2023. Markets are afraid of new duties that could force the People's Bank of China to weaken the national currency. On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the yuan also fell to 13.59 rubles (minus 3 kopecks per day).

The Contact Group for Ukraine will approve the plan until 2027. At a meeting in Ramstein on January 9, NATO will coordinate Ukraine's long-term military needs, allocating responsibility for supplies in eight key areas, including air defense, armored vehicles and drones. The United States is likely to announce the final aid package under Joe Biden's presidency.
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The main events by the morning: January 9

Denmark admits the possibility of granting Greenland independence amid pressure from Trump. Although it is difficult to assess the seriousness of the US president-elect's intentions, European leaders reacted quite harshly. The Prime Minister of Greenland has already held a meeting with King Frederik and intensified the rhetoric of independence. Further developments are still uncertain.

Trump may impose a state of emergency to legally justify the imposition of new duties against other countries. Such a step would give the president the authority to personally regulate imports and develop a new tariff policy. Against the background of these rumors, the dollar strengthened against major currencies, increasing pressure on global markets.

Joe Biden has canceled his last foreign trip to Italy, focusing on fighting large-scale fires in California. The White House said the president will spend the last weeks of his term coordinating disaster relief efforts. The damage from the fires is already estimated at $52-57 billion, and their localization is not yet possible.

Trading in X5 shares resumed on the Moscow Stock Exchange. On December 24, the Moscow Stock Exchange announced that the company, which had moved to Russian jurisdiction, had been assigned the ticker «X5». Since July 22, shares of PJSC «Corporate Center X5» have been included in the first level of listing. At the beginning of trading, the share price rose to 3,000 rubles, but after half an hour it fell to the region of 2,750.

Bitcoin dropped below $93 thousand on the news of the sale of coins by the US government. The cryptocurrency continues its series of sharp losses as risk appetite has been undermined by the Fed's hawkish signals. It also became known that the US Department of Justice received court permission to sell 69,370 bitcoins (worth $6.5 billion), confiscated during the investigation of the Silk Road case.
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Nikkei and U.S. Futures Sink Quietly: Where to Look for Resilience

Investors Await U.S. Employment Report
World stock markets continued to show weakness on Friday as investors waited with bated breath for U.S. employment data, which could either deepen the bond market sell-off or ease the tension a bit. Meanwhile, the dollar is holding steady near a two-year high.

U.S. Exchanges in the Red
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, reflecting tensions among market participants. Wall Street remained closed yesterday for the funeral of former US President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, European STOXX 50 futures and the UK FTSE were steady, showing no significant changes.

Key Moment of the Day: Employment Data
All eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1:30 p.m. GMT). Analysts expect the number of jobs to increase by 160,000 in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.

However, the market is waiting not only for the numbers, but also for their impact on the economy. A stronger result could send 10-year Treasury yields soaring to their highest levels in 13 months. This, in turn, would strengthen the dollar.

Possible scenarios
According to ING, a result below 150,000 new jobs is needed to avoid further rise in Treasury yields. Any deviation from forecasts could set the markets on a new course, adding to turbulence.

Investors around the world are holding their breath, as today's outcome could set the mood for the coming weeks.

Employment report could be a turning point
Friday's key event, the publication of the US employment report, is causing a lot of speculation among investors and analysts. It is this data that could determine the future trajectory of the bond and currency markets, but experts note that the impact will only be noticeable in the event of a significant deviation from forecasts.

Experts warn: a surprise is needed
"The employment report, as always, plays a decisive role. But for it to have a noticeable impact, the results need to be significantly different from expectations," said Padraic Garvey, head of research for the Americas at ING.

The current situation suggests that markets have already priced in some of the potential outcome. "If the numbers are close to what we expected, there is a chance we could see some reaction to lower yields, which could introduce an element of vulnerability," Garvey added.

Fed in no rush to change rates
While investors ponder the impact of the new data, officials at the US Federal Reserve are showing caution. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he believes rate cuts are inevitable in the future, but stressed there is no need to act hastily. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, on the other hand, took a harder line, arguing against any immediate rate move.

These statements reflect polarized views within the Fed, but markets have already adjusted their expectations. Traders are now forecasting a 43 basis point rate cut in 2025. However, adding to the nervousness are concerns that possible policies of President Donald Trump, including inflation programs, could spur a rise in long-term yields.

Bond yields rise, dollar strengthens
The current situation in the bond market shows a steady rise in yields. The benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose by 1.5 basis points, reaching 4.6957%. Although this is slightly below the peak of 4.73% recorded earlier in the week, analysts are closely watching the critical level of 4.739%. If it is broken, the path to the 5% mark could open for the first time since 2007.

At the same time, the dollar is strengthening. The dollar index continues to rise for the sixth week in a row, reaching the level of 109.30. This is due to the rise in Treasury yields, which amounted to 9 basis points this week.

On the verge of change?
The current situation in the market reflects tense anticipation. Investors and analysts are bracing for the employment report to provide new momentum that will either reinforce current trends or force markets to adjust their expectations. Either way, Friday's numbers will be an important guide to future economic and investment decisions.

Pressure on the pound, rising commodity prices
Amid concerns about the health of the British economy, the pound continues to weaken, with UK government bond yields reaching multi-year highs. At the same time, commodity markets are showing gains, with oil and gold prices rising despite a general decline in Asian stock indices.

The British pound under pressure
The pound remains under pressure, having fallen 0.2% on Friday to $1.2278, its lowest since November 2023. The currency has lost 1.1% of its value over the week. Meanwhile, UK government bond yields, which reached a 16.5-year high, have retreated somewhat, but remain a concern.

Oil and gold markets in positive territory
Oil prices ended the week with positive dynamics. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $74.32 per barrel, giving it a weekly gain of 0.5%.

Gold prices were no less impressive: the metal rose 1.3% over the week, reaching $2,674.44 per ounce, which is close to its highest levels since December. These movements indicate growing investor interest in safe assets amid general uncertainty.

Asian markets fall
Asian stock markets ended the week on a minor note. Japan's Nikkei index lost 0.9% on Friday, bringing its weekly loss to 1.6%. The broad MSCI Asia-Pacific index of shares fell 0.5%, and its weekly loss amounted to 1.2%.

Chinese stock markets are also showing weakness, with the blue-chip CSI300 index falling 0.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.5%. The declines are linked to rising Chinese government bond yields after the country's central bank said it would temporarily suspend Treasury purchases due to a shortage.

Global sentiment remains tense
The overall picture in the markets is that investors are in a holding pattern. Amid weakness in stock markets and tensions over macroeconomic data, attention is focused on the upcoming US employment data. The report could set a new direction for bonds, currencies and commodities.

Global markets under pressure as investors await US employment report
Global stock and bond markets continue to show volatility amid expectations for key US employment data. US stock index futures are falling while bond yields are reaching new highs.

US markets pause, futures lose ground
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after the US trading session was suspended for the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, Europe is expected to open flat, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Bond Market: Yields at multi-year highs
Tensions are rising in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note approached 4.739%, above which further gains could be triggered. The yield on the 30-year note rose 11 basis points in a week, reaching its highest in a year.

In the UK, the government debt situation is also causing concern, with bond yields soaring to their highest since 2008 amid doubts about the sustainability of the country's fiscal policy. Despite some relief, the market remains at risk.

Chinese Yuan Under Pressure, Bond Yields Rise
China's central bank has temporarily suspended purchases of Treasury bonds, citing a shortage. However, analysts believe the move is aimed at supporting the national currency, the yuan, which is facing pressure. As a result, Chinese bond yields also rose.

Employment Report: Key Indicator of the Week
All eyes are on the upcoming US employment report. Forecasts suggest a 160,000 job gain in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. However, the range of expectations is quite wide, from 120,000 to 200,000, which leaves room for surprises.

Adding to the uncertainty is the annual revision of household survey data, which could adjust unemployment statistics for recent months. This increases the likelihood that the report will have a stronger impact on the markets.

Global Markets Hold Their Breath
Markets are in a holding pattern as the jobs report could provide fresh impetus for U.S. bonds, the dollar and global stock indexes. Ahead of the data, investors and analysts are bracing for the possibility that a surprise result could be a catalyst for significant change.

Key Report Could Be a Game Changer
The upcoming US employment data could be a game changer for global markets. Strong numbers could accelerate the rise in US bond yields and strengthen the dollar, while weak numbers could raise new questions about the health of the global economy.

Breakthrough to 5%: Bond yields on the threshold of historic highs
If the report beats expectations, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note could exceed the important level of 4.739%, opening the way to a psychologically significant 5%. This figure has not been seen since 2007 and would be a powerful signal for bears, strengthening their position in the market.

Rising yields will put additional pressure on emerging markets, where the dollar is already playing a destructive role. The US currency, which is at a two-year high, continues to deepen financial problems in economies dependent on external debt.

High rates are a threat to stocks
The stock market could also react negatively. Higher bond yields and rising discount rates are calling into question lofty valuations, potentially triggering a sell-off. Investors facing rising risks can no longer count on stable stock growth without taking into account new macroeconomic realities.

Hope for balance: "Goldilocks" for the US economy
The ideal scenario for markets now is a moderately soft report. On the one hand, it should prevent further growth in bond yields and the dollar, on the other, it should not be so weak as to undermine faith in the resilience of the US economy.

However, the likelihood of a significant change in the Federal Reserve's course towards lower rates remains extremely low. The focus of the Fed and investors has shifted to the possible consequences of Donald Trump's economic policy in the coming months, where inflation risks may outweigh the need for easing.

The pound falls, the dollar strengthens
In the currency market, the dollar continues to show growth for the sixth week in a row. The British pound was the biggest loser, down 1% on the week to $1.2303, its lowest in more than a year. The pound's weakness reflects ongoing concerns about the UK's economic outlook and the impact of fiscal policy on its markets.

Markets are waiting. The results of the report will determine the next move for bonds, stocks and currencies. A successful balance between strong and weak data could reassure investors, while a significant swing in either direction risks triggering volatility.

The main events by the morning: January 13

57.3% of Greenlanders support joining the United States, 37.4% are against, according to a survey by NPO Patriot Polling. The survey was conducted during Donald Trump Jr.'s visit to Greenland, but the sample was small – only 416 participants, which casts doubt on the representativeness of the data.

New US sanctions have affected 15% of Russian coal production. The list includes the companies Kuzbassrazrezugol Explosion and Krasnoyarsk Krai Coal. Only one of the companies on the sanctions list operates both for the domestic market and for export, but even this puts significant pressure on the coal industry. Experts note that making payments for supplies is becoming increasingly difficult.

Oil prices exceeded $81 per barrel, reaching a four-month high. The strengthening of quotations is due to new US sanctions against Russia, which are expected to limit crude oil exports to China and India. Since January 8, oil prices have increased by more than 6%.

The FBI warns of Chinese cyber threats. According to the agency's director, Chinese hackers have introduced malware into critical U.S. infrastructure facilities, including sewage treatment plants, energy networks, natural gas pipelines, and telecommunications systems. Such attacks pose a serious threat to national security.

India has refused to buy Russian oil from companies and vessels subject to sanctions. Delhi adheres to a strict position, not accepting oil from tankers subject to sanctions. There are also problems with supplies to China: Three tankers with 2 million barrels of Russian oil were detained in waters off the east coast of China after the introduction of US restrictions.
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Originally Posted by KostiaForexMart

The main events by the morning: January 13


India has refused to buy Russian oil from companies and vessels subject to sanctions. Delhi adheres to a strict position, not accepting oil from tankers subject to sanctions. There are also problems with supplies to China: Three tankers with 2 million barrels of Russian oil were detained in waters off the east coast of China after the introduction of US restrictions.
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I wouldn't say these are problems for Russia at the moment. However, there is a trend that the situation will worsen this year.

The main events by the morning: January 14

A campaign to impose new sanctions against Russian gas and LNG is gaining momentum in Europe. Ten countries, including Sweden, Ireland, Poland and the three Baltic states, are calling for drastic measures that, in their opinion, should sever the last energy ties between Russia and the European Union. Although Russia's oil and pipeline gas exports to Europe have declined, LNG shipments reached record levels in 2024, suggesting that the region remains heavily dependent on Russian energy resources.

Republicans In the USA have prepared a bill on the purchase of Greenland. It is planned to be considered after Trump takes office as president. The document is called the «Make Greenland Great Again Act» and has already been supported by 10 congressmen. If the bill is passed, negotiations could begin as early as January 20. This is an ambitious project that could have serious geopolitical consequences.

Moscow has received about 3 billion euros in tax revenue from EU companies doing business in Russia. According to Politico, among the 1,600 foreign companies studied that continue to operate in Russia, about 930 are from the EU and the G7. 827 of them are European companies that continue to pay taxes in Russia. Their total revenue in Russia amounted to $81.4 billion.

Germany has launched an investigation into Elon Musk on suspicion of election interference. After a series of provocative posts by the billionaire on the social network X, the Bundestag initiated an investigation into the illegal sponsorship of the Alternative for Germany party by an American businessman who spent at least $75 million to support Trump during the US election campaign.

Armenia has announced its intention to conclude a strategic partnership agreement with the United States. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will sign the document on January 14 in Washington. Armenia also supported the draft law on the start of the EU accession process, but Russia has already warned that simultaneous membership in the EU and the EAEU is impossible.
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The main events by the morning: January 15

Damage from fires in California continues to grow and may reach $275 billion. Damage estimates are increasing almost daily: according to the meteorological agency AccuWeather, the amount has increased from $150 billion to $250-275 billion per day. Meanwhile, firefighters continue to fight the fire.

Inflation in Russia may accelerate to 9.8% by the end of 2024. This is the fifth year in a row that the Bank of Russia has failed to meet its 4% target. Analysts note that the weakening of the ruble and rising inflation expectations worsen the prospects for the economy in the first quarter.

The current president has been arrested in South Korea for the first time. Yoon Suk-yeol, who was suspended from his duties but formally remains in office, was detained with the participation of 200 police officers and 40 investigators. The arrest was preceded by a clash with his security service, which delayed the operation.

The SEC has filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk. The regulator's claims are related to the fact that Musk did not provide the necessary documents when buying Twitter. Donald Trump's closest associate called the SEC's actions «senseless» and suggested focusing on real crimes.

The EU may include restrictions on Russian LNG in the 16th package of sanctions. The European Union is discussing a gradual cessation of imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia. The new measures also include restrictions on the supply of Russian aluminum, the disconnection of several banks from SWIFT, as well as sanctions against dozens of Russian vessels.
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Gold reached a monthly peak amid dollar weakness and expectations of rate cuts

The price of gold reached its highest level in the last month during trading in Asia on Thursday. This was due to the weakening of the dollar and lower yields on Treasury bonds, which resulted from the publication of less alarming data on consumer inflation. Such indicators have strengthened the expectations of market participants regarding a possible reduction in interest rates this year.

February gold futures increased in price by 0.26%, reaching the level of $2,738 per ounce. At the same time, spot gold returned to its previous values after the morning jump and was trading at $2,709 per ounce.

This increase is due to hopes that slowing inflation and easing labor market tensions may provide the Fed with an opportunity to lower rates in the near future.

But despite this optimism, further growth in the value of gold proved to be limited. The reason for this was the weakening demand for safe haven assets caused by the signing of a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas with the support of the United States.

In addition, investors' attention was focused on the upcoming economic reports from the United States, which restrained the fall of the dollar. Preparations for the inauguration of the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, scheduled for Monday, added to the uncertainty.
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Markets under pressure: What do China GDP numbers and US unemployment mean?

Slowing amid optimistic expectations
US stocks faced a wave of corrections on Thursday after an impressive jump the day before. Investors cautiously analyzed fresh economic data and corporate earnings reports, trying to guess what the Federal Reserve will do next regarding interest rates.

Inflation figures released earlier calmed market participants, dispelling concerns about a possible resurgence of price pressure. In addition, strong banking sector earnings on Wednesday became the catalyst for the largest one-day gain in indices since early November.

New Data Adds Uncertainty
However, Thursday brought cautious optimism. Stocks were mixed, reflecting investor hesitancy. Economic data confirmed that Americans continue to spend vigorously and the labor market remains resilient. These factors suggest that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a gradual approach to rate cuts through 2025.

Market Gainers and Losers
On the corporate front, Morgan Stanley (MS.N) results were a positive sign, with shares rising 4.03% on strong fourth-quarter earnings. M&A activity played a key role in the gains. Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC.N) lost 0.98% despite forecasting interest income growth in 2025, reflecting challenging market expectations.

Looking Ahead
Investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic data and corporate results to determine the direction of the market. The current situation highlights the need for a balanced approach, where each new piece of information can become a decisive factor in making investment decisions.

Indices fall: cautious optimism gives way to anxiety
US stock indices ended Thursday on a minor note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 68.42 points (0.16%), falling to 43,153.13. The S&P 500 (.SPX) also fell by 12.57 points (0.21%), ending the session at 5,937.34. And the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) showed a more significant fall - 172.94 points (0.89%), closing at 19,338.29.

Signals from the Fed: hope for rate cuts
Investors focused on statements by Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller. He noted that the regulator may begin to cut interest rates faster than expected if inflation continues to decline. This statement caused Treasury yields to decline, reflecting growing expectations for monetary easing.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 3.8 basis points, reaching 4.615%. Meanwhile, futures contracts point to a likely 25 basis point cut by the Fed by May 2025.

Tough dynamics: markets seek balance
Stock markets are going through a difficult time after the wave of growth caused by the midterm elections in the US. Although the S&P 500 index showed a decline in four of the previous five weeks, the current week promises to end on a positive note.

However, the resilience of the economy and slowing inflation create a dual effect. On the one hand, they provide grounds for a more gradual rate cut, but on the other, they raise concerns that the Fed will act more cautiously than market participants expect.

Looking Ahead: How Markets Are Adapting to the New Reality
The market continues to balance between signals of monetary easing and the resilience of the economy, which could prolong the period of high rates. Investors are waiting for new data to better understand the outlook for market and monetary policy movements in 2025.

Tariffs and Inflation: The New Administration Raises Questions
Investors are anxiously watching developments around the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on Monday. The proposed tariff measures, which are actively discussed in Washington, raise concerns that they could lead to increased inflationary pressure in the country.

Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made statements reaffirming the need to preserve the dollar as the world's reserve currency and the independence of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, he stressed the need to tighten sanctions against the Russian oil sector, warning of the risk of "economic catastrophe" if the 2017 tax breaks are not extended until the end of this year.

Corporate News: Dow and Nasdaq Under Pressure
UnitedHealth (UNH.N) shares fell, dragging the Dow down more than 201 points after weak fourth-quarter revenue fell short of analysts' forecasts.

The Nasdaq also suffered significant losses, led by a 4.04% drop in Apple (AAPL.O) shares. Apple is set to lose its position as China's largest smartphone seller to Vivo and Huawei in 2024, according to research firm Canalys, a worrying sign for investors.

New Highs and Lows: Trading Results
Despite the challenges, U.S. stock markets posted both new gains and losses. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and nine new lows. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite posted 58 new highs, but with a noticeable downside bias — 101 new lows.

The ratio of advancers to decliners was 1.81 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.07 to 1 on the Nasdaq, reflecting the advantage of positive moves.

Trading Volumes: Activity Declining
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 14.31 billion shares, below the average of 15.75 billion over the past 20 trading days. The decline in volumes may indicate growing caution on the part of market participants amid expectations of political changes and corporate earnings.

Chinese Markets: Disappointment Despite Growth
Chinese markets ended the week with sluggish dynamics despite the published GDP data that exceeded forecasts. The Celestial Empire's economy showed growth of 5%, reaching Beijing's target for 2024. However, the figures failed to inspire investors who had been expecting more momentum to recover from a period of economic uncertainty.

Japan: Yen Strength Under Pressure on Stocks
Japanese stocks (.N225) also struggled. The key factor was the strengthening yen, which rose above 155 per dollar for the first time in a month. The move raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates at its upcoming meeting, putting additional pressure on export-oriented companies.

MSCI Global Index: False Appearance of Growth
The MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) posted its best weekly performance since early November, but the bulk of that gain came on a single day: Wednesday. Then, strong results from major US banks set a confident tone for the earnings season, providing a short-lived surge in optimism.

Political Uncertainty: Trump Inauguration in Focus
As Donald Trump's inauguration approaches, markets remain tense. Investors are concerned that his first speech as US President and possible immediate executive orders could change market sentiment. Potential new tariffs against allies and rivals alike remain a major threat to global trade.

Bond yields: relief for investors
A sharp decline in bond yields, driven by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by June, has come as a pleasant surprise to global investors. However, the decline has yet to provide much support to the stock market, which remains cautious.

Dollar weakness: pause after six-week rally
Foreign exchange markets are showing an unusual pattern in recent weeks, with the dollar, which had previously been rising steadily for six weeks, losing momentum and coming under pressure. This change has led traders to focus more on macroeconomic data, which remains a key benchmark for market participants.

Pound and euro find support
The British pound, which had been under heavy pressure, managed to settle higher by the end of the week. The euro is also showing similar dynamics, which has caught the bears by surprise, who had forecast the single currency falling to parity with the dollar. The strengthening of both currencies adds optimism to European markets, which are gradually starting to emerge from the shadow of the US dollar.

Key data: retail sales and inflation
The European economic calendar is eventful today. The UK is to publish retail sales figures for December, which could shed light on the resilience of consumer demand in the face of high inflation. The eurozone is to present its final consumer inflation report for December, which will be an important indicator for assessing the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.

Speech by the head of the Bank of Spain
Attention will also be focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of Spain, Jose Luis Escriva, in Madrid. His speech will focus on the role of central bank independence in the current economic landscape. Escriva is also expected to touch on the current challenges facing financial regulators in the face of turbulent global markets.

Forex Market Outlook
Investors continue to assess changes in the macroeconomic environment that could impact future currency dynamics. Key data released today, as well as rhetoric from financial institutions, will set the direction for major global currencies in the coming weeks.
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