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This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; EUR/USD. October 13, 2020 – Dollar grows in anticipation of inflation data On Monday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline ...

      
   
  1. #841
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    EUR/USD. October 13, 2020 – Dollar grows in anticipation of inflation data

    On Monday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline from the level of 1.1830. Today the downward trend continues, the current quote for the pair is 1.1780.

    Pressure on risky assets came from yet another unsuccessful congressional negotiation on a new stimulus package. Nancy Pelosi has again rejected proposals from Donald Trump's team, which increases the likelihood that a decision on stimulus will not be made before the presidential elections on November 3.

    Moreover, the growing gap in the rating of Joe Biden, the main opponent of Donald Trump in the presidential race, suggests that in the event of his (Biden’s) victory, the Democrats will constitute the majority in all power structures.

    Today you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the United States, which should accelerate from 1.3% to 1.5%. In addition to the fact that the rise in inflation itself is a positive factor, it is also important that the indicators are close to the target levels of the Fed. Thus, in anticipation of these data, the pair will continue to decline to the 1.1770 area.
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  2. #842
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    EUR/USD. October 14, 2020 – Euro declines amid negative external background

    The euro is losing ground on Wednesday, dropping to 1.1715. Demand for the US dollar rose after news of another deadlock in the Brexit negotiations, a new lockdown in the UK and the suspension of coronavirus vaccine testing by two pharmaceutical companies.

    At the same time, the dollar is supported by statistics from the United States: the inflation rate increased by 0.2%, increasing for the fourth month in a row. Today you should pay attention to the statistics on the US producer price index in September, as well as on the data on industrial production in the eurozone in August. The latest figures reflected only 0.7% MoM growth in European production, after rising 4.1% in July. Analysts had forecast growth of 0.8%.

    However, the strengthening of the American currency is held back by the course of the election race in the United States. The position of Joe Biden, the main rival of the incumbent President Donald Trump, remains strong, and his army of fans is growing every day. Experts point out that Biden's victory in the elections could give the economy more impetus for recovery and create conditions for a rally in the stock and foreign exchange sectors.
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  3. #843
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    USD/CAD. October 15, 2020 – Dollar hits 1.32 amid spread of second wave of coronavirus

    On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair continues to trade near local highs just above the 1.3200 level. The US dollar is gaining support amid rising market concerns about the spread of the second wave of coronavirus worldwide.

    In addition, investors drew attention to the suspension of trials of the Covid-19 vaccine by two US pharmaceutical companies due to the appearance of side effects.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. Only data on the US labor market from ADP and speeches by members of the Board of the Bank of Canada and its head Tim Lane can attract attention.

    The United States will provide data on applications for unemployment benefits: it is expected that the number of initial applications can grow from 840 thousand to 845 thousand, and the number of repeated applications should decrease from 10 976 thousand to 10 500 thousand. This means that the duration of unemployment in the United States continues to decline, which is currently the most important factor for the growth of the dollar.
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  4. #844
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    EUR/USD. October 16, 2020 – The euro is growing slightly from the level of 1.17

    On Friday, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately from the level of 1.1700, the current quote is 1.1725. During the current week, the euro showed weakening, responding to a decrease in demand for risky assets due to political and economic uncertainty in the United States and the worsening epidemiological situation in Covid in the world.

    Experts note that restrictive measures have been reintroduced in many European cities, since they recorded significant jumps in the incidence of coronavirus.

    Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the complexity of the Brexit negotiations. London and Brussels have failed to move forward on the deal, exacerbating the risks of Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

    However, today the euro has started to grow. The pressure on the dollar was exerted by yesterday's data on the labor market, which continues to experience difficulties for the second week in a row. The number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 898 thousand against the previous level of 845 thousand. The forecast assumed a decrease to 810 thousand.

    At the end of the day, the US is to release data on retail sales, which growth is expected to slow from 2.6% to 2.2%. You should also pay attention to the volume of industrial production in the States: experts predict a slowdown in the decline in production from -7.7% to -6.6%.
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  5. #845
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    Brent. October 19, 2020 – Oil fixed at comfortable levels

    Brent oil prices have consolidated above $42 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $42.77.

    Today, markets are focused on the meeting of the OPEC + ministerial monitoring committee. The parties to the agreement will meet to assess the state of the market, and it is unlikely that any decisions will be made regarding the supply. This will most likely happen at a meeting scheduled for November 30 – December 1.

    One of the scenarios for the forthcoming report assumes that the oil market in 2021 will be characterized by weak demand and growing supply. For this reason, the participants in the energy pact can discuss easing the restrictions from January 1.

    Thus, if a gradual increase in oil production by OPEC + countries against the backdrop of weak demand and an increase in production in Libya is questionable, the initiative on the oil market will finally go to buyers, which will allow Brent quotes to gain a foothold above $43.50 per barrel.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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