Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD. March 25, 2020 – Correction development.

The EUR/USD currency pair is at 1.0800, the updated three-day high at 1.0885, but then rolled back.

The price of EUR/USD rose by more than 500 points. Today the pair continues corrective growth. Apparently, buyers aimed at the level of 1.0900 and, most likely, will reach it in the near future.

Corrections for stretching the borders are at around 1.1000, EMA 21 and EMA 60. I observe the development of situations that await the return of sellers to the market.

EUR/USD. March 26, 2020 – Breakdown of resistance level of 1.0800

The EUR/USD currency pair yesterday rose another 1000 points, closing at 1.0876.

The price of EUR/USD was able to overcome the resistance level of 1.0800 by updating the local maximum for the last 4 trading days. The pair continued corrective growth, and today is testing the level of 1.0900. Apparently, the stimulus programs of the US government have a strong negative impact on the dollar.

I expect further development of the correction to the level of 1.1000, located at the point of convergence of the lines of exponential moving averages for 21 and 60 days - EMA 21 and EMA 60.

EUR/USD. March 27, 2020 – Correction to the average

The currency pair EUR/USD dollar at yesterday's auction rose by more than 1,500 points, closing at 1.1025.

The price of EUR/USD reached a key resistance level of 1.1000, located at the convergence of the lines of exponential moving averages for 21 and 60 days - EMA 21 and EMA 60.

Strong growth of the pair was promoted by the report on unemployment in the USA published yesterday, which had a strong negative impact on the dollar against all major world currencies. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell managed to calm the markets and US stock indices, including the industrial Dow Jones showed daily growth.

Despite the strong influence of fundamental factors, in the medium term I still expect the correction to complete and the downward trend to continue, as the European economy also suffers large losses, and investors traditionally prefer to hide from risks in the dollar.

EUR/USD. March 30, 2020 – The level of 1.1160 stopped the growth of the European currency

At the end of last week, trading on the EUR/USD pair ended with an increase to the level of 1.1160. The dollar remains under pressure due to a sharp increase in dollar liquidity by the central banks of developed countries.

However, today the pair quotes began to decline to the level of 1.1050. The dollar was again in demand amid reports that the quarantine regime in the United States was not expected to end early. The US President said that the authorities extend the restrictive measures until the end of April.

Today, attention should be paid to inflation data in Germany, the consumer confidence index in the eurozone, as well as to the change in the volume of pending home sales in February in the United States.

Fundamental analysis for Brent, March 31

Brent crude oil remains under pressure, although quotes today are showing some recovery to $27.70 per barrel. However, this growth does not seem to be lasting, since the external background remains extremely negative for the recovery of the oil market.

The pressure on oil is exerted by significant restrictions on business activity in most countries of the world, as well as the threat of increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia. On the previous day the Saudis announced their intention to increase oil exports by 600 thousand barrels per day since May. This suggests that Moscow and Riyadh do not intend to return to their previous agreements regarding oil production.

According to analysts, the global demand for oil in the II quarter of the year may fall by 12 million barrels per day, which will be the strongest decline for all time.

Thus, all current factors signal that in the coming months the situation in the oil market may worsen, and the price of «black gold» risks fixing itself below $20 per barrel.

EUR/USD. April 1, 2020 – Euro continues downtrend

Yesterday, trading on the pair EUR/USD ended in a slight minus, and today the downward trend of the euro continues. The pair is moderately declining to the level of 1.09. Pressure on the European currency has had the publication of economic reports from the eurozone. According to preliminary data, inflation in March slowed down from 1.2% to 0.7% year on year, while experts expected a decrease to 0.8%. The base consumer price index was 1% versus 1.2% a month earlier.

The dollar was supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve to expand the ability of dozens of foreign central banks to access dollars during a pandemic. Some support was also provided by data on consumer confidence in March. The country recorded a drop in the consumer confidence index to 120 points, which is the minimum since July 2017. However, market participants expected a decline to 110 points.

Today, you should pay attention to the unemployment data in the eurozone for February (the indicator fell to 7.3%). Data from the USA will also be of interest: a change in the number of employees from ADP for March, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for March and the ISM manufacturing index for March.

EUR/USD. April 06, 2020 – The euro began to strengthen from the level of 1.0770

The euro suspended its decline at 1.0770 and rebounded to 1.08. Today the news background for the pair is quite calm, only data on the volume of industrial orders in Germany for February and the Sentix investor confidence index for April in the eurozone will be of interest. The first indicator decreased by 1.4% m/m against the previous growth of 4.8% m/m. Regarding the second indicator: analysts expect it to fall to -30.5 points from the previous value of -17.1.

At the end of last week, the United States provided data on unemployment in March: the indicator rose to 4.4% from 3.5% earlier, although it was predicted to rise only to 3.8%. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector decreased by 701 thousand against the expectation of a decrease of 100 thousand. These data put pressure on the dollar, stopping its strengthening.

Today, the EUR/USD pair will not show strong price fluctuations: it is expected to move within the range of 1.0750-1.0850.

Fundamental Brent analysis for April 7, 2020

Brent quotes continue to grow, despite the uncertainty about the upcoming OPEC+ video conference. The current Brent quote is $ 33.75 per barrel.

Prices continue to stay above $30 per barrel, receiving support from reports that Russia is ready to discuss a serious reduction in oil production. However, many countries, including Saudi Arabia, cannot come to any formal agreement on quotas and terms, so the situation around the deal remains uncertain.

It is worth noting that the United States and Canada will not take part in the OPEC+ virtual meeting on April 9, which put some pressure on the market.

EUR/USD. April 08, 2020 – Euro consolidated at 1.09

The euro has stabilized in the range of 1.0830-1.0900. Market participants remain neutral in the absence of important macroeconomic publications. Today, one should pay attention only to the publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, according to which it will be possible to understand whether all members of the monetary committee agree to sharp cuts in the Fed rate.

Also, this publication will allow to get acquainted with the Fed estimates regarding the extent of the recession in the US economy.

Yesterday, a videoconference of finance ministers of the eurozone member countries took place, which culminated in the failure of the participants to agree on cooperative measures to overcome the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Fundamental Brent analysis for April 9, 2020

Today may be crucial for the global oil market. In the evening, the OPEC online-meeting starts, at which the ministers of the participating countries will discuss the adoption of coordinated measures to neutralize excess supply and maintain prices for «black gold».

In anticipation of this important event, Brent quotes are showing growth to the level of $34 per barrel. The new deal could include the United States, Mexico, Norway, Canada and other countries with a total production of 70 million barrels per day. Russia noted that it was ready to reduce production by 1.6 million barrels per day, if the United States also joined the leading countries of the deal (Russia and Saudi Arabia).

However, the States are not confident in their participation in either today's videoconference or a future deal, noting that oil production in the country is already declining for natural reasons. Thus, America’s position may again hinder the conclusion of a global deal.

Today, pressure on Brent may have yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy on US crude oil inventories. The data reflected an unexpected increase in stocks of 15 million barrels per week, while analysts predicted growth of 9 million.