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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on October 3. The Euro Could Not Withstand Unemployment Pressure

EUR/USD Analysis, 5M



On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly declined. Over the past couple of weeks, the dollar has accumulated several new factors that weaken its position against its competitors. Yet instead of a natural rise in the pair, we see either flat movement or even declines. From our perspective, the dollar should already be plunging into another downturn, so these "twitches" can hardly be called movement—nor are they particularly logical. The formal reason for the euro's decline on Thursday was the unemployment report in the euro area, which showed that the rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. This could have triggered pressure on the euro. However, the drop started about two hours after the report, so it is uncertain whether that was the real driver. Still, there were no other factors behind the euro's fall. Overall, this week began with a U.S. government shutdown, while the ADP report showed further job losses in the private sector. On the 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals were generated. Throughout the European session, the price attempted to bounce off the 1.1750–1.1760 area and eventually succeeded. Later, the Kijun-sen line was broken, but the pair failed to reach the nearest target. Traders could have opened shorts but had to close them around the critical line or set Stop Loss to breakeven and hold the trade until the end. COT Report



The latest COT report is dated September 23. As seen above, the net position of non-commercial traders had long been "bullish." Bears briefly gained the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump began his second term as president, the dollar has been in steady decline. While we cannot claim with 100% certainty that this trend will continue, current global developments strongly suggest that it will. There are still no fundamental factors supporting the dollar's strength, while many remain that support its decline. The global downtrend remains intact, and concerns about the Fed's potential loss of independence add further pressure on the U.S. currency. During the last reporting week, longs among the "Non-commercial" group fell by 800 contracts, while shorts rose by 2,600. As a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD Analysis, 1H



On the hourly chart, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, although it cannot yet be considered complete, as the price is moving sideways and has not broken the 1.1750–1.1760 area or the Senkou Span B line. However, we still see no grounds for sustained dollar growth. The daily chart clearly shows that the overall uptrend remains intact. Key trading levels for October 3 are: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, along with Senkou Span B (1.1782) and Kijun-sen (1.1722). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day and should be monitored. Always set the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This reduces the risk of loss if a signal proves false. On Friday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver another speech, but no major policy shifts are expected. In the U.S., key reports are scheduled for release: Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and the ISM Manufacturing Index. However, the first two may not be published due to the shutdown. Trading Recommendations On Friday, the euro's recovery may continue. Traders need to overcome the 1.1750–1.1760 area and the Senkou Span B line for the downtrend to be considered broken. A rebound from this zone supported short entries with targets at 1.1666, but we still do not believe in a sustainable dollar rally—unless U.S. data surprises strongly to the upside.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 6, 2025



EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week.

The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1910. However, this target may not be achieved if U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline. The MACD support line lies at 1.1697. A firm move below it would expose the target at 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator continues to drift horizontally along the zero (neutral) line.



On the four-hour chart, the initial resistance is the MACD line at 1.1750. After closing the gap, the price may pause slightly at this resistance level. The Marlin oscillator is re-entering positive territory, confirming that its brief dip into the negative zone was likely false. This supports the outlook for a short-term (several days) upward movement in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – October 7. The Paradoxical Dollar Doesn't Stop at What Has Been Achieved



The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Monday, which is, at the very least, surprising. Let's remember that in 2025, the United States faces a multitude of challenges. Each passing week brings new developments that practically scream at the market to continue dumping the U.S. dollar. Of course, the dollar is not the currency of a developing country. It cannot and will not fall endlessly. However, one must agree that the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains such that betting on dollar growth is simply unreasonable. Just last week, it became clear that nearly all published U.S. data surprised traders in a negative way. The key disappointment came in the ADP report, as NonFarm Payrolls were unavailable. The main takeaway for traders was that the U.S. labor market continues to slow. Admittedly, most market participants may have chosen to wait for the official NFP report, given that ADP is considered secondary. However, this doesn't justify the dollar's failure to drop last week. The ISM business activity indices also fell short of expectations. Although a slight increase was seen in the manufacturing sector, the index remains below the 50.0 "watershed" level. As for the services sector, it plunged by 2 points and is now teetering on the edge of contraction. As a reminder, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is currently not collecting or releasing data. Therefore, there will be no U.S. inflation report this week. On what basis will the Federal Reserve make its monetary policy decision at the end of the month? That remains entirely unclear. Given the current circumstances, the outcome of the decision is a mystery shrouded in darkness.

The level of uncertainty is now growing not just due to Donald Trump's leadership, his trade wars, the White House's protectionist policies, and his continued attacks on the Fed (the list is endless), but also due to the absence of critical macroeconomic data. We believe that this uncertainty is precisely why the market is hesitant to act—participants don't know what to expect. And ironically, this very uncertainty should be the primary reason for selling off the U.S. dollar. What investor would want to invest in an economy where the current inflation level is unknown? Where the president provokes a second government shutdown, makes unilateral decisions, and is willing to fire half of the federal administration to pressure the opposition? In our view, this type of uncertainty should drive the dollar down into the abyss. Incidentally, a weaker dollar works in Trump's favor. On the other side, a strong euro is unfavorable for the ECB and the EU as a whole. It's entirely plausible that some form of currency intervention has begun on the part of the ECB to prevent further euro appreciation. Of course, currency interventions are informally prohibited, but the ECB is under no obligation to disclose its actions to Trump or anyone else. In short, something is clearly off in the currency market.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 8, 2025



At the end of yesterday's trading session, the euro fell by 53 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price has already dropped another 30 pips, approaching the target level of 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator is also declining after rebounding from the zero line. Even on the weekly chart, divergences are present and Marlin remains in negative territory. Formally, the price action is developing in line with our primary scenario, under which the euro is expected to continue its long-term decline toward the key target at 1.1066 — the May low — which nearly coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally that began in January this year.

However, this otherwise clean technical outlook is being clouded by several factors: the weekly gap from Monday remains unfilled, U.S. stock markets are near all-time highs, the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds is stable at Friday's closing level, and daily trading volume remains below average. In other words, there is no obvious capital flight — the euro is falling because of internal factors, possibly due to the recent resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. If early parliamentary elections in France are announced, this could further destabilize the euro's outlook. For these reasons, we are not counting on a deep decline in the euro. A price reversal from the 1.1605 level is possible — and could happen as soon as today. Should the price consolidate below that level, it may then work its way down to the next support at 1.1495. If that level also breaks, the path opens toward 1.1392. A reversal may occur from any of these key levels, possibly leading the price back up to 1.1779 to fill the unclosed gap — a last opportunity to retest the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1910. The euro is entering a chaotic phase resembling that of the first half of 2021.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – October 9: "It's Always the Same One to Blame...



The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, declining steadily without major pauses, even overnight. This drop has been swift and persistent. So, let's ask an important question: do traders really understand that such a move requires major fundamental justification? And do they realize that it's not enough to isolate a single event—they need to consider the entire spectrum of macroeconomic and fundamental signals? Reading various expert commentaries brings to mind the classic line from the film "Casablanca": "Round up the usual suspects." At the moment, the euro does not have any serious reasons to be falling, yet many analysts are pointing fingers at the political turbulence in France — which isn't even a full-blown crisis — and blaming everything on that. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market has delivered its fifth consecutive disappointing monthly report — and that's somehow been overlooked. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted the publication of key economic reports, which are also not considered critical. Declining ISM business activity indices suggest an economic slowdown? Apparently unimportant too. The Federal Reserve's dovish messaging? Ignored. Trump's escalating tariff wars? Just a side note. But the resignation of a fifth French prime minister in two years? That's somehow a "global shockwave." Let's be honest: while France is a major EU economy, it is still just one country. The serial turnover of prime ministers has already become routine. No elections have been called, Parliament has not been dissolved, Macron has not resigned — so why the panic?

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on October 10: The Euro Collapses After Powell's Speech

EUR/USD 5M Analysis



The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline throughout Thursday. Overall, even if we were to gather all possible factors that could support the U.S. dollar and ignore all the ones that oppose it, even then, such dollar strength would hardly be justified. The only significant event on Thursday was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. However, the dollar began to strengthen earlier in the day, which once again highlights the illogical nature of the current market behavior. Perhaps the market has completely changed its attitude toward Donald Trump's policies and now, for example, views them positively. But from our perspective, there should be some visible positive results of those policies before one can confidently look forward to growth in the U.S. economy. Now back to Powell's speech — the Fed Chair hardly touched on monetary policy and gave no clear signals about easing at the next meeting. What does this change? Nothing. The absence of comments on monetary policy doesn't mean that it won't happen or that the Fed has abandoned the dovish scenario. Still, the market, for some reason, is buying the dollar regardless of justification. It sounds strange in 2025, but this is the objective reality. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed. First, the pair attempted a slight rebound from the 1.1604–1.1615 area, followed by a breakout of this zone. The first signal turned out to be false, while the second was profitable. On the 1-hour chart, a descending trendline has formed, giving traders a technical reference. Despite the fundamentally ungrounded drop in the pair, a potential trend reversal can be assessed by observing whether the price breaks through the trendline.

COT Report



The latest COT report is dated September 23. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had been bullish for quite some time. Bears briefly took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost their advantage. Ever since Trump began his second term as president, only the U.S. dollar has been falling. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar's decline will continue, but current global developments point to that scenario. We still see no strong fundamental factors for euro strength, but plenty of reasons remain for further dollar weakness. The global downtrend remains intact — but what's the point of looking back 17 years to see where price once moved? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may strengthen again. But recent events suggest that this war will persist in one form or another. A potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is yet another powerful factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The position of the red and blue indicator lines still suggests the bullish trend is intact. During the most recent reporting week: Long positions by the Non-commercial group fell by 800 contracts Short positions increased by 2,600 contracts As a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 13, 2025



Friday's statement by U.S. President Donald Trump on imposing a 100% tariff on all categories of Chinese goods triggered a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrency and equity markets. The total capitalization of the crypto market—comprising 9,510 coins—fell by 6.16% on the day, with another similar drop over the weekend. Combined, this amounted to a 13.5% decline at its lowest point. By Monday morning, the market had recovered about half of those losses. The S&P 500 stock index dropped by 2.71%. The yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined from 3.76% to 3.64%. It's somewhat surprising, then, that the euro gained 57 pips during Friday's session. The Australian dollar, by contrast, fell nearly 80 pips on the same day. We believe that Friday's panic was contained, which preserves the possibility of further recovery across financial markets. A notable observation is that trading volume on Friday in the euro was not particularly high—it was comparable to that of October 6.



On the daily timeframe, the price has returned above the target level of 1.1605. If it manages to break above the MACD line at 1.1675, the level at 1.1779 could be tested again. The Marlin oscillator, currently in the downward trend zone, is attempting to enter bullish territory. Visually, this transition may occur simultaneously with a breakout above 1.1675. If the price consolidates below 1.1605, the downside target at 1.1495 will become relevant.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the 1.1605 level, and the Marlin oscillator has entered bullish territory. The nearest resistance is at 1.1655, which coincides with the MACD line. We are awaiting a confirmed breakout above this level

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 14, 2025



EUR/USD Markets are gradually recovering, and gold has even accelerated its growth. The 1.1605 level, which the price "ignored," has been removed. Currently, the euro is consolidating in the middle of the range formed by the 1.1495 support level and the MACD line on the daily timeframe.

However, this consolidation is occurring below both declining indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator remains in a downward trend zone. Therefore, if the price falls below Friday's low of 1.1543, it will complete the full downward movement that began on September 17, reaching support at 1.1495. Conversely, if the price breaks above yesterday's high (either today or tomorrow), it will aim for an attack on the MA line at 1.1662.

On the four-hour chart, the price's intent to continue rising appears more clearly. Here, the Marlin oscillator is attempting to move above the median neutral line. This would provide solid support for the price as it contends with the first resistance at 1.1627 — the MACD line, which nearly coincides with yesterday's high.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on October 15 – The Euro Still Stagnates

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis



The EUR/USD currency pair fluctuated throughout Tuesday. In the first half of the day, another decline was observed, potentially driven by weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment indices from both Germany and the EU. In the second half of the day, the pair experienced a slight recovery, likely in response to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. It remains unclear what exactly Powell communicated to the markets, but in any case, the Fed is expected to maintain a generally dovish stance over the next one to two years. The only question is the pace at which the key interest rate will be lowered. Even the modest upward movement observed late Tuesday has not significantly changed the technical picture. From a technical standpoint, the price has now broken through a second consecutive descending trendline, suggesting the start of a potential new uptrend. As a reminder, there are no strong medium-term reasons for the dollar to strengthen, and its recent gains seem questionable considering the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. The pair managed to breach the critical line yesterday, increasing the probability of continued upward movement. On the 5-minute chart, no valid trading signals were formed during Tuesday's session. Only in the evening did the price reach the 1.1604–1.1615 zone and the Kijun-sen line, but it failed to consolidate above or rebound from these levels. As such, trade setups are likely to shift to Wednesday, though signals may also form overnight.



The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report is dated September 23. As shown in the chart, the net position of non-commercial traders has mainly remained bullish. Bears barely gained the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, only the dollar has declined in value. While we cannot say with certainty that the U.S. currency will continue to fall, global developments suggest that this scenario may prevail. There are still a few fundamental drivers supporting the euro, but many factors could still weaken the dollar. The global downtrend is still intact—though its relevance after 17 years of history is debatable. The dollar might resume strengthening once Trump ends all trade wars, but recent developments suggest the conflict will persist in some form. A potential loss of Fed independence is another powerful bearish factor for the U.S. currency. The positioning of the red and blue lines continues to indicate that the bullish trend persists. During the most recent reporting week, the number of long positions held by the "non-commercial" group decreased by 800, while short positions rose by 2,600. Thus, the net position shrank by 3,400 contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis

[img]https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20251015/analytics68eee5bd8b75a_source!.jpg
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On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair may have completed its recent downtrend last week. The trendline has been broken, so now the euro needs to consolidate above both the Kijun-sen line and the 1.1604–1.1615 resistance zone. If this happens, we may expect an upward move toward the Senkou Span B line. From a technical standpoint, the euro is overdue for a climb. For October 15, the following levels are relevant for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988. Also note the Ichimoku indicator lines: Senkou Span B (1.1687) and Kijun-sen (1.1595). These lines are dynamic and may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trade signals. Don't forget to move the stop loss to break-even if the trade moves 15 pips in your favor—this helps minimize losses in the event of a false signal. On Wednesday, the Eurozone will publish its industrial production report. While not insignificant, it is not considered a high-impact release. No major macroeconomic events are scheduled in the U.S., which is unsurprising given the ongoing government shutdown. Trading Recommendations: On Wednesday, traders can once again trade based on the 1.1604–1.1615 level area. A confirmed breakout above the Kijun-sen line and this resistance zone would validate long positions with a target at 1.1657–1.1666. If this does not occur, the pair is likely to resume its decline toward 1.15



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Nasdaq 100 Index has the potential to strengthen today.Thursday, October 16, 2025.



Technical indicators condition show strengthening momentum, including a Golden Cross between EMA(50) & EMA(200) and the RSI positioned in the Neutral-Bullish zone. Therefore, #NDX has the potential to move higher today. Key Levels:
1. Resistance. 2 : 25180.4
2. Resistance. 1 : 24976.1
3. Pivot : 24730.3
4. Support. 1 : 24526.0
5. Support. 2 : 24280.2

Tactical Scenario:
Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #NDX rises and breaks above 24976.1, it may continue its upward momentum toward 25180.4.
Momentum Extension Bias: If 25,180.4 is breached, #NDX could continue higher to test 25426.2
Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:
The upside bias weakens if #NDX breaks and closes below 24280.2.

Technical Summary:
EMA(50) : 24736.0
EMA(200): 24749.3
RSI(14) : 47.33

Economic News Release Agenda:
Tonight from the United States, the following economic data will be released:
US - NAHB Housing Market Index - 21:00 WIB
US - Business Inventories m/m - Tentative
US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB
US - Crude Oil Inventories - 23:00 WIB

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