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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 11, 2024

Yesterday's moderately pessimistic news from the U.S. unsettled the euro, causing it to fluctuate within a daily range of 55 points and close the day with a loss of only 4 points. The number of unemployment benefit claimants increased by 42,000 over the week, casting doubts on the strong employment data from last Friday. The core CPI rose in September from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year, while the overall CPI fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, against an expectation of 2.3%. Naturally, the potential ECB rate cut next week is also adding pressure. However, the dollar's balance remains uncertain due to tensions in the Middle East and the simultaneous easing of monetary policy by both the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Considering the ongoing strong growth in the stock and commodity markets, the euro could potentially begin to strengthen ahead of the ECB meeting, as it seeks this balance. Since the start of the week, the euro has only declined by 38 points, clearly indicating its reluctance to fall further.

On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the 1.0950 level. The long lower shadow indicates that another attempt to reach 1.0882 is unlikely. Even if the euro is declining from the 1.1185 level, this entire movement appears as indecisive trading driven by geopolitical factors. It is likely to end with the price breaking above the 1.1010 level. A breakthrough above 1.1076, along with the MACD line, would signal the euro's return to medium-term growth.

On the four-hour chart, the price's convergence with the oscillator has evolved. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory but has not yet exited the consolidation range. The reversal is still in progress. Here, the price needs to break above the 1.1010 level to also overcome the resistance of the MACD line. We continue to wait.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 14, 2024

The new economic measures announced by the Chinese government on Saturday did not meet investors' expectations. Essentially, it was only a statement of intent, with plans for gradual implementation, especially in the real estate sector and local governments. Nevertheless, Asian markets are up today, continuing Friday's optimism (S&P 500 up by 0.61%).

Tomorrow, data on industrial production in the Eurozone (1.8% for August) and ZEW indices, which are also expected to show strong growth dynamics, will be released. We expect the price to break above the 1.0950 resistance level.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is fluctuating near the zero line, and the price is under pressure from the indicator lines. The price needs to consolidate above the 1.0950 level before encountering the MACD line; otherwise, the euro could decline below 1.0882.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 15, 2024

The euro stubbornly refuses to reverse direction. Even yesterday's 0.77% rise in the stock market, which set a new all-time high, did not halt the euro's decline. The euro is close to consolidating below the 1.0882 level and collapsing to 1.0777. If this happens, the long-term reversal to a downtrend would have already begun with a turn from 1.1186 in a dull and uneventful manner, without triggering the liquidation of large sell orders (reportedly the largest volumes since April).

This scenario became highly probable this morning due to the proximity of the price to the key level. Additionally, the S&P 500 reached its anticipated reversal target, and oil prices dropped by 3.45% yesterday. Now, we doubt the euro will find the strength, or investors' will, to support the single currency against the ECB's rate cut. If the euro does rise, it is unlikely to go above 1.1010, with the best-case scenario being a move to 1.1076 for a retest of the MACD line. Today, European industrial production data and ZEW business sentiment indexes might provide some support for the euro

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD from 16.10.2024

It was initially expected that the rate of decline in industrial production in the eurozone would slow from -2.2% to -1.0%, but the decline was replaced by growth of 0.1%. Moreover, previous data was revised upward to -2.1%. The situation in the eurozone's industrial sector was much better than anticipated. Nevertheless, no correction occurred in the currency market. The dollar continued to rise, although the scale of its growth was merely symbolic. The market's behavior seems strange unless we consider the upcoming ECB board meeting. A month and a half ago, the ECB cut the refinancing rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, and after such a significant easing of monetary policy, everyone was confident that interest rates would remain unchanged for the rest of the year. However, at the beginning of this week, rumors started circulating that the ECB might cut the refinancing rate by another 25 basis points—possibly as soon as this Thursday. This is particularly suggested by inflation, which continues to decline steadily. And indeed, on Thursday, the final inflation data will be published, which should confirm this assumption. Thus, the strong industrial production data supported the euro, preventing it from weakening further. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is nearly empty, and the market will likely consolidate around current levels. Ahead of significant events such as the ECB board meeting and the release of inflation data in the eurozone, few will be willing to take major risks.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD From 17.10.2024

The market seems to no longer doubt that the European Central Bank will again lower the refinancing rate today—by another 25 basis points, from 3.65% to 3.40%. This decision is already being priced into the value of the euro, which has significantly depreciated recently, and there's no doubt that it's oversold. Therefore, even after the ECB announces its decision, there's no need to expect a noticeable weakening of the euro. Given the market's apparent need for at least a local correction, it's likely that soon after the ECB's governing council meeting, we will see the euro rise. This is especially likely if Christine Lagarde announces that inflation targets have been met, meaning that further monetary policy easing is not expected. Such a scenario is quite possible, as preliminary inflation data suggests that the rate of consumer price growth has slowed from 2.2% to 1.8%. The final inflation figures are expected to be published just before the meeting, which should confirm the preliminary estimates.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 18.10.2024

As expected, the European Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate by 25 basis points. However, the central bank managed to deliver a surprise. Over the last three months, the ECB has reduced interest rates by a total of 85 basis points, while inflation has slowed to 1.7%. This was, incidentally, below the preliminary estimate of 1.8%. Against this backdrop, a pause in further monetary easing seemed logical, at the very least. Instead, Christine Lagarde announced yesterday that there would be another rate cut as soon as December of this year by an additional 25 basis points. This development was a complete surprise to investors, and the single European currency continued to lose ground. However, the euro weakening could have been much more significant if it had not been for the U.S. macroeconomic data. Specifically, the growth rate of retail sales in the United States slowed from 2.2% to 1.7%, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 1.6%. On the other hand, the decline in industrial production accelerated from -0.2% to -0.6%, whereas a 0.4% growth had been expected. In other words, the U.S. data provided some support for the euro. In any case, the dollar's overbought condition has worsened even further, and the market will clearly latch onto any minor reason to initiate at least a local correction. However, today's macroeconomic calendar is generally empty. Perhaps the media will provide a reason. The market will likely consolidate around current levels if there are no significant events.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Analysis for October 21

Higher Time Frames Last week, the bears tested the weekly cloud (1.0862 – 1.0811), but the week ended with only a long lower shadow. The market closed the week above the weekly cloud, so testing these levels will continue. The bears' immediate plans still include breaking through the cloud (1.0862 – 1.0811) and forming a weekly downward target. Meanwhile, the bulls will be aided by the momentum that led to the emergence of an upward correction at the end of last week. This correction's immediate target is the daily short-term trend (1.0897). The next focus will be on the monthly time frame resistances at 1.0912-08 (monthly short-term trend and lower boundary of the monthly cloud) and 1.0932 (weekly medium-term trend).

H4 – H1 The bears still maintain their advantage in the lower time frames, but the pair has risen to the key levels at 1.0855 (central Pivot point of the day) – 1.0874 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above this trend and its reversal could shift the balance of power in favor of the bulls. The following targets for upward movement during the day would be the resistances of the classic Pivot points (1.0883 – 1.0899 – 1.0927). If bearish activity resumes and the decline continues, the market's focus will shift to breaking through the supports of the classic Pivot points (1.0839 – 1.0811 – 1.0795).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/22/2024

The anticipated correction for the dollar remains unfulfilled, as the modest signs of its beginning led nowhere. The dollar began to grow actively again. The reason behind this development is a series of statements from Federal Reserve representatives suggesting that there is no need to maintain the current pace of rate cuts. Instead, they even hinted at possibly slowing down the cuts, suggesting a potential pause. This means that by the end of the year, the U.S. central bank might lower rates only once rather than twice as previously anticipated. Not surprisingly, this has fueled the dollar's upward movement. Today, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) representatives to make statements regarding monetary policy. There's a high chance that the euro might see a rebound, potentially marking the start of the much-anticipated correction. Over the past three months, the ECB has cut the refinancing rate by a total of 85 basis points—a significant reduction. Many expected that the recent ECB Governing Council meeting would not change the rates, which seemed quite reasonable. After such active monetary easing and a drop in inflation below 2.0%, the ECB might opt to pause and observe further developments. This situation could lead to a scenario where, even if the Fed slows its pace of monetary easing, it continues to lower interest rates while the ECB at least takes a short pause, keeping rates steady. This would be enough for the euro to strengthen. Thus, the second attempt at a correction could be successful.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/23/2024

Although the refinancing rate in the eurozone has been cut by eighty-five basis points over the past three months, the European Central Bank has no plans to slow the pace of its monetary policy easing. Christine Lagarde essentially stated this directly. However, this did not lead to a significant weakening of the single European currency. The scale of the dollar's strengthening has been purely symbolic, mainly because the dollar is already excessively overbought. Moreover, the European Central Bank head made similar statements during the press conference following the last meeting of the European Central Bank's board. So, she didn't provide any fundamentally new information. Nonetheless, the dollar's overbought condition remains. On the contrary, it has slightly intensified. However, the market cannot grasp anything to implement the much-needed correction. Given that today's macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, at best, we may see only a symbolic weakening of the US dollar.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 24 – Technical Analysis Overview


EUR/USD

Bearish players continue to operate below the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.0811), extending the downtrend. The following bearish targets in this chart section are the daily cloud breakout target (1.0710 – 1.0654) and the monthly support level (1.0611). Bullish players need to rise and consolidate above the weekly cloud (1.0811 – 1.0864) to gain new opportunities and prospects in the current situation, with support from the daily short-term trend (1.0850).

GBP/USD

Yesterday, bearish players left the daily Ichimoku cloud (1.2965) and secured a position below the weekly medium-term trend (1.2939). These levels and the daily short-term trend (1.3003) are currently the nearest targets for bullish players, should they decide to regain their positions and take the initiative. Meanwhile, for the development of the decline and the strengthening of bearish sentiment, the first area of support is at 1.2797 – 1.2864, encompassing the monthly cloud, monthly short-term trend, and the final level of the weekly golden cross of the Ichimoku.

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