Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.05.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CAD pair today is influenced strongly by U.S. inflation-related releases and Canadian labor-market data, both of which typically generate high volatility in USD-CAD fundamental analysis. For the USD, attention is centered on delayed PCE, Consumer Spending, Disposable Personal Income, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, all of which remain key components in the Federal Reserve’s inflation mandate. Higher-than-expected readings tend to strengthen the USD by boosting expectations of tighter monetary policy. On the Canadian side, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are due, forming critical indicators of economic momentum. Strong job creation or a lower unemployment rate would likely support the CAD, adding downward pressure on the USD CAD pair during today’s session.


Price Action
The USDCAD price action on the H4 chart shows a clear descending trend, with the market producing lower highs and lower lows consistent with bearish momentum. The price is trading tightly beneath a well-respected descending trendline, confirming strong selling pressure each time price attempts to retest resistance. Currently, the pair is hovering around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as strong support and is preventing a deeper decline. Price remains trapped between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels, indicating consolidation inside a bearish structure, with the broader technical outlook still favoring the downside unless a significant breakout occurs.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (9 & 21 EMA): The 9-EMA is below the 21-EMA, both sloping downward and confirming strong bearish momentum. Price continues to reject these EMAs as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the descending trend.
RSI (28): RSI at 41.11 reflects moderate bearish momentum without entering oversold territory. The indicator supports continuation of the downtrend unless a divergence emerges.
Stochastic (5,3,3): Stochastic near 53–55 sits in neutral territory, indicating a short-term pause in momentum. No overbought or oversold signals are present, allowing the downtrend to remain intact.


Support and Resistance
Support: The nearest strong support lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement zone, which has repeatedly halted bearish extensions.
Resistance: The closest resistance is the descending trendline combined with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which has repeatedly capped bullish retracements.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USD-CAD H4 technical and fundamental forecast currently supports a bearish continuation, driven by the downward EMA structure, trendline resistance, and price trading within a weakening consolidation zone. Today’s fundamental releases from both the U.S. and Canada may generate increased volatility and potential breakout conditions. Traders should monitor the 23.6% Fibonacci support closely, as a breakdown could accelerate downside continuation, while a reclaim of 38.2% may trigger a corrective rally. As always, apply disciplined risk management when trading major economic releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.05.2025

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.09.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair today is influenced by a dense cluster of US labor-market data and Japanese economic releases, creating a potentially volatile environment for forex traders. On the USD side, markets await multiple delayed JOLTS releases, the NFIB Small Business Index, high-frequency ADP employment data (NER Pulse), and the Conference Board Leading Indicators, all of which may inject significant momentum into USD price action due to their strong links with labor demand, inflation expectations, and consumer spending. Higher-than-forecast job openings or employment numbers typically support the USD by strengthening expectations for a tighter monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, the JPY faces notable domestic catalysts, including the BOJ’s monthly Monetary Base and Machine Tool Orders, along with a speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda—a key event that often causes volatility as traders look for signals on rate normalization or policy adjustments. Combined, these events make today highly relevant for USD-JPY fundamental analysis, with macroeconomic sentiment likely driving stronger short-term swings.


Price Action
The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the pair continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming the ongoing medium-term bullish trend. The most recent correction pushed the price down toward the lower boundary of the rising channel, where buyers regained control, forming a rebound and re-establishing bullish pressure. Price action now shows a clean upward movement as the candles climb back above the short-term moving average cluster, signaling renewed buyer interest. The break of the recent minor pullback structure reinforces that USD JPY price action maintains a bullish outlook as long as the channel support remains intact.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 21): Price is trending higher with healthy corrections, and the recent MA-9 bullish crossover above MA-21 after touching the lower channel confirms renewed upside momentum. Trading above both moving averages keeps the USDJPY H4 outlook firmly bullish.
RSI (14): RSI at 58.98 signals positive momentum without being overbought, suggesting further room for the uptrend to extend. This supports sustained bullish price action on the USDJPY H4 chart.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Stochastic above 80 reflects strong bullish pressure but also warns of possible short-term pullbacks. As long as %K stays above %D, momentum still favors buyers, with any dip likely to be corrective within the broader uptrend.


Support and Resistance
Support: Key support sits near 155.40 – 155.60, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the recent bullish crossover zone.
Resistance: Major resistance emerges near 157.20 – 157.50, close to the upper channel band and recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USD-JPY H4 forecast confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, supported by the price action rebound from channel support and the MA-9/MA-21 bullish crossover. RSI remains constructive, while the Stochastic Oscillator suggests strong momentum but potential for short-term volatility. With today’s heavy USD labor-market calendar and multiple JPY releases—including BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech—traders should expect increased volatility and swift intraday shifts. The broader trend remains upward as long as price holds above the ascending channel support.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.09.2025

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.10.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD pair remains influenced significantly by upcoming US economic events and speeches. Today, investors anticipate remarks from the US President regarding economic policies, potentially impacting USD volatility. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data concerning crude oil inventory could affect market sentiment indirectly, reflecting risk appetite and USD strength, consequently affecting the BTCUSD pair. Traders should closely monitor these events, as they can trigger sharp market reactions influencing short-term Bitcoin valuations.


Price Action:
Analyzing BTCUSD price action on the H4 timeframe, the pair has exhibited a predominantly bearish movement within a descending channel. Recently, BTCUSD has shown breakout failures, indicating continued bearish sentiment. Although the candles have now broken above the channel, the pattern's history suggests caution, as this breakout could also fail. However, given the long-term bullish nature of Bitcoin, a reversal to an upward trend is expected in the near future, pending confirmation.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently, the Parabolic SAR dots are below the candles, suggesting short-term bullish momentum in the BTCUSD market. Traders might consider this an early signal for potential trend reversal if sustained above the bearish channel.
RSI (14): With an RSI reading of 56.68, BTCUSD remains in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold. This indicates moderate bullish potential, leaving room for additional upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.
Stochastic (5, 3, 3): The Stochastic oscillator at 69.57 and 67.68 demonstrates a bullish bias but is nearing the overbought zone. Traders should be wary of potential short-term retracements due to profit-taking near resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for BTCUSD is established near the lower channel line, around the recent low at approximately $89,000, providing a critical psychological barrier.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is observed around the recent breakout high at approximately $93,500, serving as an immediate test point for continued bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD analysis on the H4 chart suggests a cautious approach. The recent breakout from the bearish channel could indicate a bullish reversal, but confirmation is necessary to ensure sustainable upward momentum. Key indicators support a bullish scenario in the short term, though traders must closely monitor upcoming USD economic data and political events, as these can significantly influence market dynamics and BTC price volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.10.2025