Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.05.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CAD pair today is influenced strongly by U.S. inflation-related releases and Canadian labor-market data, both of which typically generate high volatility in USD-CAD fundamental analysis. For the USD, attention is centered on delayed PCE, Consumer Spending, Disposable Personal Income, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, all of which remain key components in the Federal Reserve’s inflation mandate. Higher-than-expected readings tend to strengthen the USD by boosting expectations of tighter monetary policy. On the Canadian side, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are due, forming critical indicators of economic momentum. Strong job creation or a lower unemployment rate would likely support the CAD, adding downward pressure on the USD CAD pair during today’s session.


Price Action
The USDCAD price action on the H4 chart shows a clear descending trend, with the market producing lower highs and lower lows consistent with bearish momentum. The price is trading tightly beneath a well-respected descending trendline, confirming strong selling pressure each time price attempts to retest resistance. Currently, the pair is hovering around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as strong support and is preventing a deeper decline. Price remains trapped between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels, indicating consolidation inside a bearish structure, with the broader technical outlook still favoring the downside unless a significant breakout occurs.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (9 & 21 EMA): The 9-EMA is below the 21-EMA, both sloping downward and confirming strong bearish momentum. Price continues to reject these EMAs as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the descending trend.
RSI (28): RSI at 41.11 reflects moderate bearish momentum without entering oversold territory. The indicator supports continuation of the downtrend unless a divergence emerges.
Stochastic (5,3,3): Stochastic near 53–55 sits in neutral territory, indicating a short-term pause in momentum. No overbought or oversold signals are present, allowing the downtrend to remain intact.


Support and Resistance
Support: The nearest strong support lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement zone, which has repeatedly halted bearish extensions.
Resistance: The closest resistance is the descending trendline combined with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which has repeatedly capped bullish retracements.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USD-CAD H4 technical and fundamental forecast currently supports a bearish continuation, driven by the downward EMA structure, trendline resistance, and price trading within a weakening consolidation zone. Today’s fundamental releases from both the U.S. and Canada may generate increased volatility and potential breakout conditions. Traders should monitor the 23.6% Fibonacci support closely, as a breakdown could accelerate downside continuation, while a reclaim of 38.2% may trigger a corrective rally. As always, apply disciplined risk management when trading major economic releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.05.2025

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.09.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair today is influenced by a dense cluster of US labor-market data and Japanese economic releases, creating a potentially volatile environment for forex traders. On the USD side, markets await multiple delayed JOLTS releases, the NFIB Small Business Index, high-frequency ADP employment data (NER Pulse), and the Conference Board Leading Indicators, all of which may inject significant momentum into USD price action due to their strong links with labor demand, inflation expectations, and consumer spending. Higher-than-forecast job openings or employment numbers typically support the USD by strengthening expectations for a tighter monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, the JPY faces notable domestic catalysts, including the BOJ’s monthly Monetary Base and Machine Tool Orders, along with a speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda—a key event that often causes volatility as traders look for signals on rate normalization or policy adjustments. Combined, these events make today highly relevant for USD-JPY fundamental analysis, with macroeconomic sentiment likely driving stronger short-term swings.


Price Action
The USDJPY H4 chart shows that the pair continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming the ongoing medium-term bullish trend. The most recent correction pushed the price down toward the lower boundary of the rising channel, where buyers regained control, forming a rebound and re-establishing bullish pressure. Price action now shows a clean upward movement as the candles climb back above the short-term moving average cluster, signaling renewed buyer interest. The break of the recent minor pullback structure reinforces that USD JPY price action maintains a bullish outlook as long as the channel support remains intact.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 21): Price is trending higher with healthy corrections, and the recent MA-9 bullish crossover above MA-21 after touching the lower channel confirms renewed upside momentum. Trading above both moving averages keeps the USDJPY H4 outlook firmly bullish.
RSI (14): RSI at 58.98 signals positive momentum without being overbought, suggesting further room for the uptrend to extend. This supports sustained bullish price action on the USDJPY H4 chart.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Stochastic above 80 reflects strong bullish pressure but also warns of possible short-term pullbacks. As long as %K stays above %D, momentum still favors buyers, with any dip likely to be corrective within the broader uptrend.


Support and Resistance
Support: Key support sits near 155.40 – 155.60, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the recent bullish crossover zone.
Resistance: Major resistance emerges near 157.20 – 157.50, close to the upper channel band and recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration
The USD-JPY H4 forecast confirms a continuation of the bullish trend, supported by the price action rebound from channel support and the MA-9/MA-21 bullish crossover. RSI remains constructive, while the Stochastic Oscillator suggests strong momentum but potential for short-term volatility. With today’s heavy USD labor-market calendar and multiple JPY releases—including BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech—traders should expect increased volatility and swift intraday shifts. The broader trend remains upward as long as price holds above the ascending channel support.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.09.2025

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.10.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The BTCUSD pair remains influenced significantly by upcoming US economic events and speeches. Today, investors anticipate remarks from the US President regarding economic policies, potentially impacting USD volatility. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data concerning crude oil inventory could affect market sentiment indirectly, reflecting risk appetite and USD strength, consequently affecting the BTCUSD pair. Traders should closely monitor these events, as they can trigger sharp market reactions influencing short-term Bitcoin valuations.


Price Action:
Analyzing BTCUSD price action on the H4 timeframe, the pair has exhibited a predominantly bearish movement within a descending channel. Recently, BTCUSD has shown breakout failures, indicating continued bearish sentiment. Although the candles have now broken above the channel, the pattern's history suggests caution, as this breakout could also fail. However, given the long-term bullish nature of Bitcoin, a reversal to an upward trend is expected in the near future, pending confirmation.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently, the Parabolic SAR dots are below the candles, suggesting short-term bullish momentum in the BTCUSD market. Traders might consider this an early signal for potential trend reversal if sustained above the bearish channel.
RSI (14): With an RSI reading of 56.68, BTCUSD remains in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold. This indicates moderate bullish potential, leaving room for additional upward movement before reaching overbought conditions.
Stochastic (5, 3, 3): The Stochastic oscillator at 69.57 and 67.68 demonstrates a bullish bias but is nearing the overbought zone. Traders should be wary of potential short-term retracements due to profit-taking near resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for BTCUSD is established near the lower channel line, around the recent low at approximately $89,000, providing a critical psychological barrier.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is observed around the recent breakout high at approximately $93,500, serving as an immediate test point for continued bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD analysis on the H4 chart suggests a cautious approach. The recent breakout from the bearish channel could indicate a bullish reversal, but confirmation is necessary to ensure sustainable upward momentum. Key indicators support a bullish scenario in the short term, though traders must closely monitor upcoming USD economic data and political events, as these can significantly influence market dynamics and BTC price volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.10.2025

ETHUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.23.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating near the $3,000 psychological level against the US Dollar amid a flurry of high-impact USD economic events scheduled for today. The US dollar may see increased volatility due to several key economic data releases delayed by the recent government shutdown. These include the ADP National Employment Report (NER Pulse), GDP q/q, Durable Goods Orders, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production. A stronger-than-expected ADP employment change or GDP release could strengthen the USD, thereby exerting downside pressure on ETHUSD. Conversely, any weakness in these reports may support ETH prices in the short term. Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, ETH USD traders should remain cautious and monitor today’s releases closely as they could heavily influence market sentiment and direction.


Price Action:
The Ethereum price has been fluctuating horizontally following a significant downtrend. Price action on the H4 chart indicates that ETHUSD has broken below the $3,300 level, which now acts as a strong resistance. The price is currently consolidating just under the $3,000 psychological barrier, with multiple failed attempts to break above. A bearish descending channel has formed, suggesting a continuation pattern. The lower boundary around $2,800 acts as a key support zone, holding prices from further decline. Price movement remains cautious and traders are awaiting clear signals either from macroeconomic news or a breakout of the descending channel.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: ETHUSD is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, which has turned red — indicating bearish momentum. The cloud is narrowing, suggesting a potential squeeze or breakout. While the lower band of the cloud is beginning to curve upwards, the price remains under pressure and below the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines. A breakout above the cloud is necessary to confirm a shift in momentum toward bullish territory.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line is currently at 11.350, and the signal line is at -9.403, showing signs of a possible bullish crossover. The histogram bars are gradually turning positive, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. If the crossover confirms, it could indicate a short-term reversal or at least a test of upper resistance levels.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index stands at 51.08, reflecting a neutral stance. The RSI is neither in the overbought nor oversold territory, implying a lack of strong directional momentum. Traders should wait for a breakout above 60 or a dip below 40 to confirm a trend continuation or reversal.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots had been consistently forming below the candles, supporting a bullish correction. However, the most recent SAR dot has flipped to appear above the current candle, signaling a possible end to the short-term bullish momentum and a potential return to bearish pressure.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The $2,800 level acts as immediate support and has held strong during recent dips. A breakdown below this could open the way to $2,700 and lower levels.
Resistance: The $3,000 psychological level is the first major resistance, followed by $3,300, which aligns with the previous breakdown zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The ETH-USD H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis suggests that the pair is in a consolidation phase below key psychological and technical levels. Despite signs of weakening bearish momentum, Ethereum remains confined within a descending channel with no confirmed breakout. MACD and RSI hint at a potential reversal, but confirmation is still needed. Given today’s packed US economic calendar — with ADP employment, GDP, durable goods orders, and factory output data due — traders should be cautious and expect potential volatility. A strong USD reaction could suppress ETH, while weak USD data might offer Ethereum a chance to reclaim $3,000 and challenge $3,300 again.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.23.2025

ETHUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.23.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating near the $3,000 psychological level against the US Dollar amid a flurry of high-impact USD economic events scheduled for today. The US dollar may see increased volatility due to several key economic data releases delayed by the recent government shutdown. These include the ADP National Employment Report (NER Pulse), GDP q/q, Durable Goods Orders, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production. A stronger-than-expected ADP employment change or GDP release could strengthen the USD, thereby exerting downside pressure on ETHUSD. Conversely, any weakness in these reports may support ETH prices in the short term. Given the macroeconomic uncertainty, ETH USD traders should remain cautious and monitor today’s releases closely as they could heavily influence market sentiment and direction.


Price Action:
The Ethereum price has been fluctuating horizontally following a significant downtrend. Price action on the H4 chart indicates that ETHUSD has broken below the $3,300 level, which now acts as a strong resistance. The price is currently consolidating just under the $3,000 psychological barrier, with multiple failed attempts to break above. A bearish descending channel has formed, suggesting a continuation pattern. The lower boundary around $2,800 acts as a key support zone, holding prices from further decline. Price movement remains cautious and traders are awaiting clear signals either from macroeconomic news or a breakout of the descending channel.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: ETHUSD is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, which has turned red — indicating bearish momentum. The cloud is narrowing, suggesting a potential squeeze or breakout. While the lower band of the cloud is beginning to curve upwards, the price remains under pressure and below the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines. A breakout above the cloud is necessary to confirm a shift in momentum toward bullish territory.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line is currently at 11.350, and the signal line is at -9.403, showing signs of a possible bullish crossover. The histogram bars are gradually turning positive, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. If the crossover confirms, it could indicate a short-term reversal or at least a test of upper resistance levels.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index stands at 51.08, reflecting a neutral stance. The RSI is neither in the overbought nor oversold territory, implying a lack of strong directional momentum. Traders should wait for a breakout above 60 or a dip below 40 to confirm a trend continuation or reversal.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots had been consistently forming below the candles, supporting a bullish correction. However, the most recent SAR dot has flipped to appear above the current candle, signaling a possible end to the short-term bullish momentum and a potential return to bearish pressure.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The $2,800 level acts as immediate support and has held strong during recent dips. A breakdown below this could open the way to $2,700 and lower levels.
Resistance: The $3,000 psychological level is the first major resistance, followed by $3,300, which aligns with the previous breakdown zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The ETH-USD H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis suggests that the pair is in a consolidation phase below key psychological and technical levels. Despite signs of weakening bearish momentum, Ethereum remains confined within a descending channel with no confirmed breakout. MACD and RSI hint at a potential reversal, but confirmation is still needed. Given today’s packed US economic calendar — with ADP employment, GDP, durable goods orders, and factory output data due — traders should be cautious and expect potential volatility. A strong USD reaction could suppress ETH, while weak USD data might offer Ethereum a chance to reclaim $3,000 and challenge $3,300 again.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.23.2025

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.24.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD currency pair analysis indicates potential low liquidity due to New Zealand banks being closed in observance of Christmas Day, resulting in irregular volatility today. Traders should be cautious, as the absence of regular market participants may lead to unexpected market movements. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report, scheduled for release on December 31, 2025, is expected to provide important signals regarding the U.S. economic health, potentially influencing USD strength.


Price Action:
Analyzing NZDUSD price action on the H4 chart reveals sustained bullish momentum characterized by shallow corrective phases. Recently, the candles exhibited a sharp upward movement, confirming a hidden bullish divergence. Currently, the price is testing the Fibonacci expansion level of 38.2, where momentum remains robust. Given this strong momentum, the NZDUSD pair may experience minor corrections or advance further towards the next Fibonacci expansion levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The dots are positioned below the candles, clearly signaling continued bullish strength and upward momentum for NZDUSD. Traders may interpret this as an indicator of potential continuation rather than reversal.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD indicator is currently at 0.001627, above the signal line at 0.000851, supporting bullish momentum. The histogram bars are expanding positively, suggesting increasing bullish sentiment in the market.
William %R (14): With a reading of -4.04, the Williams %R indicator is currently in the overbought territory. This suggests bullish dominance but also implies potential for minor pullbacks as traders may begin profit-taking.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate technical support for NZDUSD is identified around the previous resistance-turned-support level near 0.5800. This level could act as a floor for short-term corrective movements.
Resistance: The next notable resistance level is seen around the Fibonacci expansion level of 61.8, slightly above the current trading zone at approximately 0.5865.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The H4 technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for NZDUSD shows strong bullish momentum, supported by the Parabolic SAR, MACD, and Williams %R indicators. While the pair currently faces minor resistance at the 38.2 Fibonacci expansion level, ongoing upward momentum may facilitate further gains. Traders should, however, be cautious due to low liquidity and possible volatility spikes driven by the holiday season.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.24.2025

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.07.2026





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD currency pair is currently influenced by anticipated economic reports from Australia, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Building Approvals data. CPI figures significantly impact the AUD since inflation directly affects monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Positive CPI results, indicating rising inflation, typically strengthen the Australian dollar due to expectations of higher interest rates. Meanwhile, upcoming USD data releases, such as employment figures, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and crude oil inventories, will influence USD strength. Traders should monitor these data points closely, as better-than-forecast results would provide robust support for the US dollar.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD pair's price action analysis on the H4 chart reveals a clear upward trajectory within an ascending channel with a notable sharp steepness. Currently, the price resides in the middle area of the channel, indicating potential indecision or temporary consolidation. A continued upward movement would require breaking above this midpoint decisively, whereas bearish pressure might see prices retreat towards the immediate support level at the channel’s lower trend line.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The dots are plotted below the candles, clearly signaling ongoing bullish momentum and support for the current upward trend. Traders should watch for any reversal of the dots above the candles, which would indicate a bearish shift.
Stochastic (5,3,3): The indicator shows readings at 86.70 and 79.62, placing the AUDUSD in the overbought territory. This indicates potential upcoming bearish corrections, though prices may still remain bullish for a brief period. Traders must remain cautious and watch for stochastic crossover signals.
Williams %R (14): At a current reading of -6.89, Williams %R is also deeply in overbought conditions, suggesting imminent short-term reversal potential. Traders should prepare for possible pullbacks or consolidation at current price levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is established at the lower trend line of the ascending channel around the 0.6670 area, serving as a strong barrier against bearish pressures.
Resistance: Key resistance level is currently situated at the upper trend line of the channel near the 0.6768 mark, representing the primary target for bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD H4 chart presents bullish momentum within an ascending channel, supported by Parabolic SAR indicators. However, overbought conditions noted by Stochastic and Williams %R indicators suggest caution, as a potential bearish correction or consolidation could occur. Fundamental data releases related to AUD and USD are critical factors to watch, as strong outcomes could influence immediate price direction significantly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.07.2026

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.09.2026





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s EUR/USD fundamental outlook is influenced by a series of economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the United States. For the euro, traders will closely monitor industrial output, foreign trade data, and retail sales figures from key economies such as Germany, France, and Italy. These indicators are essential in gauging the region's economic momentum, particularly as inflation and production pressures remain in focus. If actual results exceed expectations, the euro may find support. On the US side, critical data releases including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate, and Labor Costs are scheduled. These indicators are vital for assessing the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rates, especially as recent speeches from FOMC members continue to signal a hawkish stance. A strong US labor market could continue to strengthen the dollar against its counterparts.


Price Action:
The EURUSD pair has continued its bearish trajectory on the H4 timeframe. After peaking near 1.18000 in late December, the price broke below the significant 1.17000 level at the beginning of January and has since maintained a steady decline. Currently, the pair is hovering just above the 1.16500 support zone, consolidating near this level after failing to regain upward momentum. Price has consistently adhered to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, indicating ongoing downside pressure. If this consolidation resolves lower, the next key level to watch is 1.16200, which may act as the next potential target for sellers.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands (20,2): The price is currently trading along the lower band, indicating strong bearish momentum. The absence of a move toward the mid-band suggests a lack of bullish correction. The bands are slightly widening, reflecting increased volatility and supporting the continuation of the downward move.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line stands at -0.001717 and remains below the signal line at -0.001491, confirming the bearish trend. Although the histogram shows a slight decrease in selling momentum, there is no sign yet of a bullish crossover. As long as the MACD remains negative and below the signal line, downside pressure is likely to persist.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is currently at 35.77, indicating weakening bullish strength and proximity to the oversold threshold. While not yet in oversold territory, the RSI suggests limited buying interest at current levels. A further decline toward or below 30 could signal an approaching reversal or short-term correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The key support level lies at 1.16500, which is being tested. A break below this level may open the door for further losses toward 1.16200.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.17000, previously a strong support that has now turned into resistance. A move above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The current EUR-USD H4 technical chart and price action analysis suggest a continuation of the bearish trend, as supported by the RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands. The market remains under pressure following a rejection from 1.18000 in December and a decisive break below 1.17000 in early January. Unless eurozone fundamentals surprise to the upside or US economic data disappoints, the pair is likely to test the next support around 1.16200. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic releases, especially labor and trade figures from both regions, which may shift short-term sentiment. This technical and fundamental chart daily analysis of EURUSD H4 is intended for traders seeking a structured forex forecast, combining price action with key technical indicators to build a consistent trading strategy.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.09.2026