Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 22 - October 29

The US dollar advanced against most currencies, but the moves were limited.The upcoming week is quite busy, featuring initial GDP reads from the US and the UK, rate decisions from the BOC and the ECB, and more.

1. Japanese elections: Sunday, results expected before markets open.
2. Australian CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.8% and core CPI by 0.5%.
3. UK GDP (first release): Wednesday, 8:30. Has the economy picked up in Q3? Expectations are for 0.3% q/q once again.
4. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Headline orders are predicted to advance by 1.1% while core orders carry expectations for 0.5%.
5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00, press conference at 15:15.
6. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00.
7. ECB Rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. This time, no new forecasts are planned, so Draghi’s words carry more weight.
8. US GDP (first release): Friday, 12:30. An annualized growth rate of 2.7%is on the cards.

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EUR/USD was under some pressure on the ongoing crisis in Catalonia. The upcoming week is dominated by the all-important ECB decision. What will be the new size of the QE program? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. German Buba Monthly Report: Monday, 10:00.
2. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 14:00. The official measure of inflation by Eurostat got very close to reaching a balanced level of 0, but remains in negative numbers. At -1 seen in September, consumer confidence appears to be mildly pessimistic. A similar level is on the cards now.
3. Flash PMIs: Tuesday morning: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the whole euro-zone.
4. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. IFO is Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank.
5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00.
6. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 7:00. The fourth-largest economy suffered from the crisis in Catalonia, but this will not appear in the quarterly unemployment rate for Q3. In Q2, it stood at a whopping level of 17.2%, yet this is much lower than the peak of above 27% seen in the worst years.
7. Monetary data: Thursday, 8:00.
8. Rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, press conference at 12:30.

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