Weekly Outlook: 2017, April 23 - April 30

The US dollar wobbled in the week after Easter, as Trump approches his first hundred days in office. French Presidential Elections, rate decision in Japan and the eurozone, US Durable Goods Orders and GDP data from The UK, the US and Canada stand out in a busy week. These are the major events on forex calendar.

1. French Presidential Election: Sunday. French election will be performed in two rounds; the first on Sunday and the second round will take place on May 7. The recent shooting in Paris which killed one policeman resurfaced the issue of France’s fight against terror. Voters will cast ballots in the first round on Sunday.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. German business morale Surged in March to its highest level in nearly six years, suggesting businesses are less concerned about Trump’s new protectionism policy and Germany’s own election issues.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer Confidence in the US edged up to 125.6 in March, reaching the highest level since December 2000, amid positive attitudes towards current conditions.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude stocks fell 1 million barrels in the week to April 14 as refineries boosted output, but gasoline supplies increased unexpectedly. Analysts expected a bigger draw of 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks edged up by 1.5 million barrels. Despite the decline in Crude stocks, inventories remained stubbornly high.
5. Japan rate decision: Thursday. Kuroda stated that the economy continues to improve modestly, expecting growth to continue in the coming months.
6. Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 11:45, press conference at 12:30.
7. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Meanwhile, core orders excluding transportation equipment edged up 0.4% after a 0.2% increase in January.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Nevertheless, many analysts believe a slowdown will occur this year as inflation is estimated to double this year, reducing household spending. The services sector expanded 0.8%, while industrial production remained flat and construction gained 0.1%.
9. Canadian GDP data: Friday, 12:30. Following this positive report, analysts are revising their estimates for Canadian GDP in the first quarter to 3.5% from 2.7%, predicting an annual growth of 3.5%. However, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz remains cautious saying the risks for the economy still exist in the form of US protectionism and the housing market bubble.
10. US GDP data: Friday, 12:30. President Donald Trump said he will boost the economy with an aggressive combination of tax cuts, reduced regulations and increase government spending on public projects. However, economists say it will take a while before the results are visible.

the source

EUR/USD drifted to the upside, driven by the dollar’s weakness. Is there more to come? The big event of the upcoming week is the French elections, followed by the ECB decision.

1. French Presidential Elections: Sunday, exit poll expected before markets open, but full results could wait for Monday morning if the race is very close.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank reported a rise in business confidence, to a score of 112.3, above expectations.
3. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Tuesday, 13:00. A drop of 0.1% m/m is forecast.
4. Spanish Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 6:00. The fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone still suffers from a very high level of unemployment, but this has been improving. In Q4 2016, the unemployment rate stood at 18.6%. The same rate is estimated now.
5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00. A tick up to 9.9 is projected.
6. Spanish CPI: Thursday, 7:00. A bump up to 2.5% is expected.
7. ECB rate decision: Thursday: decision at 11:45 and the press conference is at 12:30.
8. German retail sales: Friday, 6:00. A modest advance of 0.1% is likely now.
9. French CPI: Friday, 6:45. A rise of 0.2% is projected.
10. Spanish GDP: Friday, 7:00. A similar expansion is predicted now: 0.7% once again.
11. Monetary data: Friday, 8:00. The ECB tracks the money in circulation (M3 Money Supply) and private loans. M3 has growth at an annual rate of 4.7% in February. Private loans had accelerated their growth rate to 2.3% back then. M3 is expected to rise at the same pace while the volume of loans will likely accelerate to 2.4%.
12. CPI Flash Estimate: Friday, 9:00.

the source

The stock market started the week under a cloud based on increased global tensions and holidays in the US and overseas. Heading into the last trading day before the Easter holiday stocks looked week technically but there were many signs based on my analysis that meant the risk was too high for new short positions.

The calendar is full this week with the Chicago National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey on Monday. Then on Tuesday we have the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

On Thursday we get the Durable Goods orders and Pending Home Sales Index followed on Friday by the GDP, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment.

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